NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Monday Night

Tampa Bay (+2.5) at St. Louis - Thursday, 8:25 pm EST

Comments: Jeff Fisher clearly isn't a regular reader of this article, because despite my epic rant about Todd Gurley's usage last week, he still only saw 30 of the team's 55 offensive snaps and 17 touches. Fortunately for the Rams, he turned those touches into 147 yards and two scores, because he's just that good. The Bucs have been mostly excellent against the run this season (second in YPC against at 3.4, eighth in rushing yards allowed per game at 94.1 and tied for third with only six rushing TDs allowed), but it's not like Case Keenum (or Nick Foles, for that matter) is going to be leading St. Louis to victory. It's Gurley or bust for the Rams on offense, even if it doesn't seem like the coaching staff has figured that out yet. ... Speaking of impactful rookies, Jameis Winston continues to play like one at home (73.5 QB rating) while being poised and confident on the road (100.5 QB rating). He won't have Vincent Jackson to throw to this week, as the veteran receiver is out with a knee injury, but that just leaves more targets for Mike Evans. Statistically, the Rams have been mostly mediocre against the pass, but they should get Janoris Jenkins back from the second concussion of the season, and more advanced systems, such as Football Outsiders, have them ranked as one of the best pass defenses in the league and simply the victim of bad scheduling luck (FO has the Rams facing the toughest schedule in the league so far when it comes to aerial offenses). ... Doug Martin continues to earn himself big money once he becomes a free agent in the offseason, sitting just 37 yards behind Adrian Peterson for the rushing crown. Thursday games tend not to be favorable to running backs, though, and there's been only three 100-yard performances over the last 10 TNF matchups (Eddie Lacy against the Lions in Week 13, LeSean McCoy against the Jets in Week 10 and Marshawn Lynch against the Niners in Week 7), so if that pattern holds we aren't due for another one until next week (Latavius Murray, come on down!). Martin and Gurley are both talented enough to disrupt the emerging paradigm, or whatever buzzwords you're tuning out in your Thursday meeting while you set your lineups.

Predictions: Martin rushes for 80 yards, but Charles Sims picks up 60 combined yards and a receiving TD. Winston throws for 250 yards and a second score to Evans. Gurley bangs out 70 yards and a TD, while Keenum throws for a season-high 170 yards (yes, seriously). Buccaneers, 17-13

N.Y. Jets at Dallas (+3) - Saturday, 8:25 p.m. EST

Comments: The Jets are in a dogfight with the Steelers and Chiefs for the AFC wild-card spots, so they've got no reason to look ahead or take the Cowboys lightly despite the fact that, well, it's the Cowboys. Last in the league's worst division, missing two and a half of last year's triplets (a clearly less than 100 percent healthy Dez Bryant being the half), Dallas' offense just flat out stinks this season, and while its defense hasn't been bad, it can't carry the whole load. The Jets allow less than 20 points a game (19.7, 10th in the league) while Matt Cassel has "led" the Cowboys to 15.2 points a game in his six starts. As a former president from Texas used to say, that dog won't hunt. ... Expect to see healthy doses of Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell in this one, on the heels of the mud holes Eddie Lacy and James Starks stomped in the Dallas defense in Week 14. The Cowboys' run defense and pass defense are both middle of the pack when it comes to yardage, but they've allowed 13 rushing TDs (fourth-worst in the league) compared to just 14 passing TDs (third-best in the league). DeMarcus Lawrence (chest) and Rolando McClain (concussion) are both banged up in Dallas' front seven as well, and if McClain can't play they don't have a reliable option to fill in at middle linebacker. ... Darren McFadden, however, has no such luck. The Jets' defense ranks first in rushing yards allowed (78.9 per game) and rushing TDs allowed (still just two on the season), and despite the reputation of their offensive line, the Cowboys have been bad in short yardage this season, repeatedly getting stuffed on the goal line on the rare occasions they get that close to the goal line.

Predictions: Ivory picks up 120 combined yards and a TD, while Powell adds 60 combined yards and scores for the third consecutive game. Ryan Fitzpatrick throws for a quiet 220 yards but does hit Brandon Marshall for a touchdown. McFadden manages 70 yards, and Cassel throws for 230 yards but can't generate a touchdown once again. Jets, 21-6

Carolina at N.Y. Giants (+5.5) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Fun fact of the week: every NFC East team is a home underdog, ranging from Washington getting a solitary point against the 6-7 Bills to the Giants charitably getting five-and-a-half against the undefeated Panthers. The "NFC Least" jokes don't seem quite adequate anymore, and "NFC Deceased" is probably more accurate. If Donald Trump wants to bar anyone from anything, it should be barring one of these losers from the postseason. That said, New York arguably has the best chance of any of the four teams to pull the upset this week. The scare in New Orleans is still fresh, and Eli Manning is just as capable of lighting up the normally-stingy Carolina secondary as Drew Brees was, especially with Odell Beckham on an unreal tear. His average performance over the last six games is 7.2 catches for 132.7 yards and 1.3 TDs, and while Josh Norman is one heck of a cornerback, I'm not sure anyone can stop Beckham right now. ... If Beckham can't pull in his usual haul, though, the Giants might not have many other options on offense. Rashad Jennings is coming off his best game of the season, but his 102 combined yards is only the second 100-plus yard performance of the year by a Giants' RB (Shane Vereen managed 110 in Week 5 against the Niners), and the Panthers are fourth in the league in run defense, allowing 84.6 yards per game. They're also fifth passing yards allowed per game (223.2) and first in QB rating allowed (69.6), so Rueben Randle and a banged-up Dwayne Harris (shoulder) probably won't be bailing Eli out either. ... The Giants, meanwhile, allow a league-high 308.4 passing yards a game and have been fairly mediocre against the run, but Cam Newton has fewer weapons available to him than usual. Jonathan Stewart is out with a foot injury, leaving the backfield in the hands of Fozzy Whittaker (love his work on the new Muppets show), Mike Tolbert and possibly untested rookie Cameron Artis-Payne, who has all of 12 carries. Greg Olsen is also limping with a knee injury, potentially leaving him unable to exploit a Giants defense that allows more than 70 yards a game to tight ends. More targets to Ted Ginn and his oven-mitt hands is not necessarily a good thing for Carolina.

Predictions: Whitaker leads the Panthers' backfield with 60 yards, but Tolbert punches in a short TD. Newton throws for 280 yards and a touchdown to Devin Funchess, while also running in a score. Jennings grinds out just 40 yards, but Manning throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Beckham, who gets held to less than 100 yards for the first time since Week 7, and Vereen to keep it close. Panthers, 24-20

Tennessee (+14) at New England - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Most weeks when writing these, I try to come up with one or two "crazy" touchdowns (defensive scores, return TDs, that kind of thing) simply because that's how life works. Even in my wildest what-if scenarios, though, I wasn't going to call a Marcus Mariota touchdown reception. Of course, it didn't help the Titans win the game, but points for creativity at least. Mariota now gets arguably the toughest challenge of his young career, as he goes up against a coach known for embarrassing rookie QBs and a veteran team that smells blood in the battle for the top seed in the AFC. The Patriots already sit ninth in the league in QB rating allowed at 83.1, but given that Mariota's failed to throw a TD pass in either of his last two road games, he could be in for a very bumpy ride. ... Not only did Rob Gronkowski only miss one game with his knee injury, but Julian Edelman is already practicing as he returns from foot surgery that was expected to cost him at least the rest of the regular season. Of course, they've lost LeGarrette Blount for the year, but as injuries go this year, New England has to count itself lucky. ... Blount's injury opens the door for, well, someone to step up, but I'm not sure even Bill Belichick knows who it will be yet. Brandon Bolden and James White top the depth chart, while a parade of free-agent RBs have come through town with only former Bronco Montee Ball signed to the practice squad. The Titans have contained pass-catching backs well this season, so if you have to guess at which one will be productive Bolden seems like the better bet, but in a game where the Pats could have the game well in hand by the end of the first quarter, both could see plenty of work.

Predictions:Antonio Andrews picks up 50 yards, while Mariota throws for 250 yards and rushes for 30, but manages just one TD to Harry Douglas. Bolden leads the Pats' backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown. Edelman doesn't play, but Tom Brady still throws for 360 yards and four TDs, two to Gronkowski and two to Brandon LaFell, who each top 100 receiving yards. Patriots, 38-10

Buffalo at Washington (+1) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Rex Ryan's squad just hasn't been able to develop any momentum this season, never winning or losing more than two games in a row, and as a result they sit below .500 and just about out of the AFC playoff race. That hasn't stopped LeSean McCoy from putting together a nice little run, however, as he's topped 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the last seven games (with 94 yards and a TD in the game before that). Over a full season, that's a pace that would net him more than 1,800 combined yards and eight TDs, which is exactly what the Bills were hoping for when they traded for him. Washington struggled against the run this year, ranking 29th in YPC against (4.6) and 24th in rushing yards allowed (121.3 per game), so don't expect it to slow Shady down. ... The squad from D.C. has an identical 6-7 record to the Buffalonians (Buffalites? Buffalecians?) but a lot more to play for, sitting in a three-way tie for the lead in the NFC Deceased. It's a bit of a mystery how its record is even that good, since other than Jordan Reed and maybe Bashaud Breeland, nobody on Washington seems to be having a great season. Kirk Cousins might be the least volatile QB in the NFL, since he basically throws exactly one TD pass every game, but predictable doesn't necessarily equate to good. What he lacks in upside he should get back in comfort, though. Despite a star-studded front seven, the Bills have managed just 19 sacks this season, 30th in the league, and Cousins has only been brought down 23 times in 13 games. That time in the pocket should allow him to keep the chains moving, even if he can't get the ball into the end zone more than once. ... DeSean Jackson is limping again with a knee injury but seems likely to play. The Bills could be without two of their main receiving options, as Charles Clay (back) and Robert Woods (hip) are also listed as questionable. Frankly, though, the more times Tyrod Taylor is forced to throw to Sammy Watkins, the better off the Bills are.

Predictions: McCoy slashes his way to 130 combined yards and a TD. Taylor rushes for 40 yards and throws for 240 yards, finding Watkins for a score. Alfred Morris bangs in a short touchdown but Matt Jones leads the Washington backfield with 90 combined yards and is on the receiving end of Cousins' lone TD, while the QB throws for 270 yards. Washington, 23-20

Kansas City at Baltimore (+7.5) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Make that seven straight wins for the AFC's hottest team, though the Chiefs narrowly escaped with the victory last week over the woeful Chargers due to a downpour that rendered both offenses fairly punchless. The defense has been the driving force behind the winning streak, as nobody's scored more than 22 points against Kansas City since Cincinnati popped for 36 in Week 4, and with Matt Schaub and his two INTs a game back under center for the Ravens, the Chiefs (second in the league with 18 picks and fourth in QB rating against at 78.5) seem poised to make it eight straight. ... Both teams rank in the top 10 in rushing yards allowed per game (the Chiefs are seventh at 92.2, while the Ravens are 10th at 99.5) and have sub-4.0 YPC against, so don't expect too much production on the ground. The Chiefs have also been extremely tough on pass-catching backs, so what yardage Javorius Allen gets probably will come the hard way. Spencer Ware is battling a chest injury, though, so Charcandrick West could regain a larger share of the touches in K.C.'s backfield. ... Crockett Gillmore (back) is out and could be done for the season, but it's likely not much of a loss for the Baltimore passing game, at least on Sunday. The Chiefs have been arguably the stingiest defense in the league against tight ends, allowing just two TDs on the season and less than 40 yards a game, second in both categories. The Ravens haven't been too shabby either, though, as they've allowed 43.5 yards a game and also just two TDs on the season to TEs. No running game, no tight ends -- that pretty much just leaves the wide receivers as the difference-makers. Jeremy Maclin versus whoever the heck Baltimore is trotting out these days? I know who I'm backing.

Predictions: West picks up 80 combined yards and a touchdown. Alex Smith throws for 250 yards and a TD to Maclin. Allen manages to grind out 60 yards and a score, while Schaub throws for 260 yards and a TD to Kamar Aiken but gets picked off twice once again, one of which gets returned for a touchdown by Sean Smith. Chiefs, 24-17

Houston (PK) at Indianapolis - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The AFC South hasn't gotten quite as much bad press as the NFC Deceased (yes, I'm going to run that one into the ground), but when the Jaguars are only a game back of the division lead you know things are rough. The Colts still hold the tiebreaker edge with a 3-1 divisional record, and a win here would give them a huge advantage. On the other hand, they've allowed an incomprehensible 96 points in their last two games, getting absolutely torched by the passing attacks of the Steelers and, umm, the Jaguars, and now DeAndre Hopkins is coming to town. Both starting corners, Vontae Davis and Greg Toler, are less than 100 percent healthy due to knee injuries, and third-round pick D'Joun Smith is back on the shelf with a knee injury of his own, leaving Indy's secondary in a fragile state. Brian Hoyer's out with a concussion, and you'd think T.J. Yates isn't the kind of QB capable of putting up 40-plus points in a game, but then again, who would have thought Blake Bortles could put up 51? ... In Yates' one previous start this season (Week 11 against a tough Jets defense), Hopkins humiliated Darrelle Revis to the tune of 5-118-2 on 12 targets. If you're considering fading the Texans' star WR due to the quarterback situation, this may not be the best time to indulge your contrarian impulses. ... Matt Hasselbeck remains under center for the Colts despite being banged up, but the bloom seems to have come off his 40-year-old rose. After throwing seven TDs in his first four starts, including two to Andre Johnson in Johnson's Week 5 revenge game against Houston, he's managed only one in those two blowout losses. He's also been sacked five times in those two games, and J.J. Watt's probably twitching after going two games without a sack. The broken hand he's playing through undoubtedly has something to do with that, but with the division crown potentially hanging in the balance, expect him to find some way to make a difference.

Predictions:Chris Polk leads the Houston backfield with 80 combined yards, but Jonathan Grimes vultures a TD. Yates throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns, one to Hopkins and one to Cecil Shorts. Frank Gore rushes for 50 yards, while Hasselbeck throws for 220 yards and two TDs, one to T.Y. Hilton and one to Coby Fleener. Texans, 30-20

Atlanta (+3) at Jacksonville - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Three quarterbacks this season have led their teams to 50 or more points in a single game this year: Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Blake Bortles. If the "One Of These Things (Is Not Like the Others)" song from Sesame Street just started playing in your head, don't worry, you're not the only one. Bortles is having himself quite a season, though, putting up an 8:0 TD:INT ratio over the last two games and throwing multiple TDs in 10 of 13 starts. Having three legitimate receiving threats helps, as Allen Robinson have five touchdowns in the last three games, Allen Hurns has found the end zone in eight of the last 10 games, and Julius Thomas has his own little three-game scoring streak going. The Falcons' pass defense has been fairly tough, giving up just 17 TD passes on the year, but they'll be put to the test Sunday. ... While Bortles' star is on the rise, Matt Ryan's season is going down the tubes. He's on pace for his fifth straight 4,000-yard campaign almost by default, but the 21:17 TD:INT ratio he's set to record would be the worst of his career, and his lowest touchdown total since he was a rookie. Apparently, having only one reliable target to throw to makes you easy to defend. Who knew? Even that one reliable target hasn't been so reliable lately, as Julio Jones hasn't scored in five games or topped 100 receiving yards in three. A Jacksonville defense that's in the bottom 10 in the league in both passing yards allowed (261.7 per game) and passing TDs allowed (24) gives him a good opportunity to break his slump, though. ... T.J. Yeldon's knee injury will probably keep him on the sidelines, giving the start to Denard Robinson. Atlanta's allowed 17 rushing touchdowns on the year, second most in the NFL, so Robinson's in a good spot for a fantasy playoff-deciding performance. Devonta Freeman's a riskier play, given his poor recent results and the fact that he's facing a Jags defense that ranks fifth in YPC allowed (3.6), but they've been vulnerable to pass-catching backs so Freeman could still make an impact.

Predictions: Freeman picks up 100 combined yards and a TD. Ryan has his best game in a while, throwing for 300 yards and three TDs, one to Jacob Tamme and two to Jones, who pulls down 140 yards. Robinson rushes for 90 yards and a score, while Bortles throws for 290 yards and TDs to Robinson and Hurns, with the latter topping 100 yards. Falcons, 31-27

Chicago (+5.5) at Minnesota - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The Vikings may have lost the advantage in the battle for the NFC North, but a win over the Bears gives them a better divisional record than the Packers and a chance to steal the crown in their Week 17 showdown at Lambeau Field. Adrian Peterson rumbled for more than 100 yards in Week 8 when Minnesota beat Chicago in their first matchup, but Teddy Bridgewater still had to engineer a fourth-quarter comeback to secure the victory. The Bears' run defense may have actually gotten worse since then, ranking 30th in YPC against (4.7) and 26th in rushing yards allowed (125.7 per game), so Bridgewater's heroics may not be necessary this time around. ... Minnesota's defense remains in tatters, as Harrison Smith (hamstring) and Anthony Barr (groin) are still out of action while Linval Joseph (foot) and Everson Griffen (shoulder) are at less than 100 percent, but the players left on the field showed up big time last week, holding Carson Palmer and the Cardinals to just 23 points. Matt Forte (who got hurt during the game) and Jeremy Langford combined for a pedestrian 87 yards on 22 carries in the last meeting, but health is on the Bears' side this time. Incredibly, Forte only has one rushing TD against the Vikings in 14 career games, but if Joseph can't play, he'll have a good shot at adding to that meager total. ... Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller have both been battling an illness this week, but should be available Sunday. Unlike Forte, Jeffery has no problem scoring against Minnesota, finding the end zone five times in six career games against them, including one in Week 8.

Predictions: Forte bangs out 90 combined yards. Jay Cutler throws for 230 yards and TDs to Jeffery and Miller. Peterson has a huge game, rushing for 140 yards and two touchdowns, but Bridgewater throws for less than 200 yards and can't find the end zone. Vikings, 20-17

Green Bay at Oakland (+3) - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Comments: The Packers' backfield remains a bit of a mess, but at least now it's the good kind of mess. Eddie Lacy and James Starks both had their best games of the season last week against the Cowboys, and while Lacy seems to have regained the starting role once again, Starks should remain heavily involved on passing downs and has already set career highs in receptions, receiving yards and targets. The Raiders have been middle of the pack against the run this year but have struggled at times against pass-catching backs, so if you have to use one or the other, Starks might be the way to go this week. ... This week's stat that means absolutely nothing, but still makes you wonder: the Raiders are 0-3 against the NFC North so far this season. They've been maddeningly inconsistent, upsetting the Broncos in Denver one week after getting roughed up by the Chiefs in Oakland, so who knows which version of the team will show up Sunday. Derek Carr, at least, has been relatively consistent, throwing multiple TDs in three straight games and 10 of 12 (not counting his abbreviated appearance in Week 1). The Packers' pass defense has been solid, ranking seventh in QB rating against at 81.5, but they also haven't exactly faced the league's elite (their schedule is littered with games against QBs like Matt Cassel, Nick Foles and Colin Kaepernick). ... Davante Adams has been a non-factor for the last month, catching 11 of 25 targets for just 83 yards and a TD over the last four games, and is now listed as questionable with a foot injury. Aaron Rodgers might prefer slinging the ball to Jeff Janis or Jared Abbrederis anyway, given what tends to happen when he looks Adams' way.

Predictions: Lacy rushes for 70 yards and a TD, while Starks picks up 80 combined yards and a receiving score of his own. Rodgers throws for 240 yards and a second touchdown to Abbrederis. Latavius Murray picks up 80 yards and a TD, while Carr throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns, two to Amari Cooper and one to Seth Roberts. Raiders, 31-27

Cleveland (+14.5) at Seattle - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Comments: For weeks now, I've been assuming that Russell Wilson's sudden display of passing prowess was a fluke, a temporary thing, and for three straight weeks I've been burned by that assumption. Over the last month, Russell has an absurd 14:0 TD:INT and has averaged 293 passing yards a game. Now that his backfield is gutted by injury, and I expect him to keep passing because he has no other option, this will, of course, be the week he falls back to earth. Will that stop me from predicting a four-TD game against a Browns secondary that wasn't playing well before it lost Joe Haden for the season? Of course not. I'm just warning you in advance. A rainy day in Seattle might help dampen their aerial attack too. ... That Seattle backfield, by the way, features two Buffalo Bills retreads in Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown (hey, that's how they found Marshawn Lynch, so why not) and the repatriated Christine Michael, who got to hang out in Dallas and not carry the ball for most of the season. Cleveland's run defense is pretty abysmal, ranking 29th in rushing yards allowed (131.3 per game), but assuming any of those three will be productive, much less trying to guess which one(s) it will be, seems futile. ... Oh right, there's another team playing in this game, isn't there? Johnny Manziel looked decent enough last week against the Niners, but handling the Seahawks defense is another thing altogether. Isaiah Crowell also had a ridiculously productive game, but Seattle is second in the league in rushing yards allowed (83.2 per game), so don't expect anything close to a repeat. Manziel's lost Brian Hartline for the remainder of the year, but Gary Barnidge actually had a good game with Johnny Football under center, so he has at least one target he trusts.

Predictions: Crowell rushes for just 30 yards. Manziel throws for 210 yards and a TD to Barnidge, but he also gets picked off twice. Brown leads the Seahawks backfield with 60 combined yards, but Russell throws for 330 yards and the aforementioned four touchdowns, one each to Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, Luke Willson and Jackson. Seahawks, 37-7

Cincinnati at San Francisco (+4.5) - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Comments: On the bright side, Andy Dalton's thumb injury didn't land him on IR, and he might be able to return to action for the postseason. Then again, the Bengals still have to get to the playoffs for that to matter. The Steelers are surging and sit two games back, and if AJ McCarron can't produce at least one victory to close out the schedule, there's no guarantee 10 wins gets Cincinnati a wild card. McCarron made some big plays last week after Dalton went down, but also threw two INTs, and while the 49ers should be a pushover for the team as a whole he'll still be making his first NFL start. ... San Fran's biggest weakness is on the ground, though, and after watching Isaiah Crowell, of all people, tear up their defense, expect heavy doses of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. The Niners are 31st in rushing yards allowed (133.2 per game) and 30th in rushing TDs allowed (16), and haven't been very good against pass-catching backs either. For once, both Cinci backs are in a good spot to pop for big games. ... Blaine Gabbert continues to be entirely serviceable, posting a 6:3 TD:INT ratio over his five starts with a 7.5 YPA. He hasn't shown much ability to mount a comeback, though, and the Bengals' pass defense is very good, ranking sixth in QB rating against at 81.4 with more INTs (16) than pass TDs allowed (15). Torrey Smith is also dealing with a back injury, potentially taking away Gabbert's one downfield weapon.

Predictions: Hill rambles for 80 yards and a score, while Bernard adds 80 combined yards and a TD. McCarron isn't asked to do too much, throwing for 220 yards and a touchdown to A.J. Green. Shaun Draughn manages 60 combined yards, while Gabbert throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Vance McDonald. Bengals, 27-10

Miami (+1.5) at San Diego - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Comments: The Dolphins are genuinely hilarious. Lamar Miller rips off 7.4 yards a carry last week, so naturally they only give the ball to him 12 times, because you wouldn't want too much of a good thing. The team's inability to properly utilize its talent on offense will face a stiff test this week against a defense that makes just about everybody look good. The Chargers are bad against the run (31st in YPC allowed at 4.8), bad against the pass (30th in YPA allowed at 8.1), bad at producing turnovers (29th in with just 13 combined fumble recoveries and INTs) and bad at getting off the field (opponents have converted four of five fourth-down attempts). They're just plain bad. Whether they're bad enough to make even Ryan Tannehill look good remains to be seen, though. ... Miami's not much better against the run, ranking 30th in yards allowed (131.5 per game), so it's time once again for the "Will Melvin Gordon finally have a good game?" watch. Gordon's at least been consistently mediocre, rushing for 31 to 60 yards on 11 to 18 carries in each of the last six games. His final two games of the year are on the road against the Raiders and Broncos, so if he doesn't take advantage of this matchup, his odds of coming out of his rookie season without a TD or a 100-yard performance are distressingly high. ... Steve Johnson will probably remain out Sunday with a groin injury and Ladarius Green is gimpy due to an ankle injury, so Philip Rivers will again have very limited options in the passing game. He's failed to throw a TD pass in three of his last four games, though he came through with four touchdowns in the other game. The Dolphins have coughed up 28 passing TDs this year, tied for third most in the league, so Rivers could still find a way to be productive throwing to Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd and whoever else they stick a uniform on.

Predictions: Miller gains 110 combined yards and a score. Tannehill throws for 250 yards and TDs to Jarvis Landry and Jordan Cameron. Gordon picks up 70 yards and his first NFL touchdown, while Rivers throws for 280 yards and touchdowns to Floyd and Gates. Chargers, 27-24

Denver (+6.5) at Pittsburgh - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Comments: The week's marquee matchup sees the AFC West-leading Broncos take on a Steelers team suddenly thinking about more than a wild card after Andy Dalton got hurt and opened the door a crack in the AFC North. Denver's offense has struggled under Brock Osweiler, averaging just 19 points a game in the four games since he took over for Peyton Manning, but he'll face a Pittsburgh defense allowing 279 passing yards a game (31st in the league). On the flip side, Ben Roethlisberger and his ridiculous 8.7 YPA (second only to Carson Palmer's 8.8) faces the second-best pass defense in the league, as the Broncos have allowed a mere 75.5 QB rating. It's a classic strength vs. strength, weakness vs. weakness battle. ... C.J. Anderson, who missed last week's loss to the Raiders with an ankle injury, should be back in the lineup for Denver. Ronnie Hillman struggled without him, but they could both have trouble finding room against a Pittsburgh run defense that's sixth in yards allowed (88.3 per game) and second in rushing TDs allowed (four). Of course, the Broncos' run defense is just as good, ranking third in yards allowed (84.3 per game) and leading the league in YPC against (3.3), so DeAngelo Williams could have a long day too. ... If the running games are stymied, and the passing games are equally matched by the opposing secondaries, what's going to decide the games? It might be the offensive lines. Both teams have top-five pass rush units (the Broncos lead the league with 44 sacks, while the Steelers are fifth with 38), but while Roethlisberger has been his usual hard-to-bring-down self (14 sacks in nine games), Osweiler's been sacked 17 times in just four and a half games.

Predictions: Anderson leads the Broncos' backfield with 50 rushing yards. Osweiler throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, but gets sacked four times. Williams managed only 40 yards, but Roethlisberger throws for 290 yards and TDs to Martavis Bryant and Heath Miller. Steelers, 20-14

Arizona at Philadelphia (+3.5) - Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: The Cardinals continue to pace the AFC West, though their seven-game winning streak was nearly derailed by the Vikings last week. Carson Palmer and his league-leading 8.8 YPA now get to take on an Eagles defense that's allowed 29 TD passes on the season, second most in the league, but which has looked a little better since bottoming out in back-to-back torchings by Jameis Winston and Matthew Stafford. Not that Palmer needs more weapons, but Andre Ellington is close to returning from his toe injury, though if he does play his snaps could be limited. I guess the veteran QB will have to make do with Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd and John Brown and David Johnson and J.J. Nelson against a secondary that is patchwork at best. Shucks. ... Philadelphia does have a two-game winning streak of its own, though, with one of those victories coming against the Patriots (no matter how fluky it was). The backfield remains a three-headed dog's breakfast, with DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles each getting nine to 15 touches last week and none producing much with the restricted workload. Arizona's fifth in the league in rushing yards allowed (87.7 per game) but has been a bit vulnerable to pass-catching backs, so if you absolutely have to use one this week, make it Sproles. ... The Cardinals are third in the NFL in QB rating allowed at 78.1, but their secondary won't quite be at full strength as cornerbacks Patrick Peterson (ankle) and Jerraud Powers (calf) are limping, though both are expected to play. Sam Bradford hasn't exactly been electric this season, throwing multiple TDs in only three games, but first-round pick Nelson Agholor has started to get a little more involved in the offense down the stretch, joining Jordan Matthews as at least plausible threats. If the Eagles are going to upset another front-runner, it'll probably have to come through Bradford's arm rather than multiple special teams scores.

Predictions: Johnson picks up 140 combined yards and scores. Palmer throws for 340 yards and four TDs, two to Fitzgerald and one each to Floyd and Darren Fells. Mathews leads the Eagles' backfield with 70 combined yards and a touchdown, while Bradford comes through with his best game of the season, throwing for 320 yards and TDs to Sproles, Agholor and Josh Huff. Cardinals, 38-34

Detroit (+3) at New Orleans - Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: You'd think a team that plays in a domed stadium at home would do better indoors when they're on the road, but the Lions got roughed up by Todd Gurley and the Rams' pass rush pretty well last week in St. Louis. They now stagger down to New Orleans for another game under a dome for what could be a shootout instead of a mauling. The Saints' pass defense is atrocious (last in QB rating against at 114.2, among their other statistical sins), and even if Calvin Johnson's ankle injury leaves him at less than 100 percent, Matthew Stafford will still have plenty of options available to him. The real question is how Detroit's pass defense will handle Drew Brees. The veteran QB has been erratic at times, but a 13:4 TD:INT ratio in his last three home games shows that he can still fire it up with the best of them, and the Lions are 29th in the league in QB rating against at 101.2. Expect fireworks. ... Tim Hightower stepped into Mark Ingram's lead back role last week and didn't embarrass himself, though a 3.0 YPC isn't exactly stellar. C.J. Spiller remained an afterthought in the offense, so it looks like Hightower or bust for the Saints. The bust part doesn't seem likely this week, though. The Lions have allowed a league-high 18 rushing TDs this season, so even if Hightower's yardage comes purely through volume, he'll likely have a score or two attached to it again. ... Eric Ebron is dealing with an illness, but assuming he plays he could be in line for a big game. New Orleans is the first team in the league this year to allow more than 1,000 receiving yards to tight ends (in fact, no other defense has allowed 900 yards yet), and the Saints' 10 tight end TDs allowed leaves them tied with two other teams for worst in the league, as well. You'd think practicing against Jimmy Graham the last couple years would have helped them out in that regard, but then again, maybe it did, which is a depressing thought. Oh, one of those other teams that's allowed 10 TDs to TEs? The Lions, of course. Ebron may not be the only tight end to pile up the production Monday.

Predictions:Ameer Abdullah picks up 90 combined yards, rushes for one TD and returns a kickoff for a second. Stafford throws for 250 yards and touchdowns to Ebron and Golden Tate. Hightower bashes out 70 yards and a score, while Brees throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns, two to Ben Watson and one to Willie Snead. Saints, 34-28

Last week's record: 12-4, 10-6 ATS
Season to date: 129-79, 114-88-6 ATS