This article is part of our Injury Analysis series.
As fantasy owners eagerly await the start of NFL training camp, I thought I would break from my usual format. Instead of analyzing and examining current injuries, I decided to give my projections of sorts. Starting with the running back position, I selected five players who I feel are in best position to stay healthy for the upcoming season, and five players who I suspect won't make it a full 16 games. I used Rotowire's projected number of carries as a gauge for the number of carries each player is expected to receive.
Five Potentially Durable Running Backs for 2016 (min 180 projected carries)
Since seeing limited action in his rookie season, Miller was active for 48 straight regular season games with Miami. He's suffered several minor injuries, including a sprained AC joint during the 2014 season but remained a fixture of the Dolphins' backfield. However, fantasy owners know being active and seeing a healthy workload are two separate things, as Miller never seemed properly utilized in Miami. Fortunately that may be to his long-term benefit, as splitting carries likely reduced the wear and tear on the 25-year-old's body. He's a serious breakout candidate with minimal injury risk.
It may be premature to call Gurley durable, considering he missed the first two games of his professional career recovering from knee surgery. However, the Rams handled his treatment and return to play brilliantly by easing Gurley into the starting running back role. As a result, he put
As fantasy owners eagerly await the start of NFL training camp, I thought I would break from my usual format. Instead of analyzing and examining current injuries, I decided to give my projections of sorts. Starting with the running back position, I selected five players who I feel are in best position to stay healthy for the upcoming season, and five players who I suspect won't make it a full 16 games. I used Rotowire's projected number of carries as a gauge for the number of carries each player is expected to receive.
Five Potentially Durable Running Backs for 2016 (min 180 projected carries)
Since seeing limited action in his rookie season, Miller was active for 48 straight regular season games with Miami. He's suffered several minor injuries, including a sprained AC joint during the 2014 season but remained a fixture of the Dolphins' backfield. However, fantasy owners know being active and seeing a healthy workload are two separate things, as Miller never seemed properly utilized in Miami. Fortunately that may be to his long-term benefit, as splitting carries likely reduced the wear and tear on the 25-year-old's body. He's a serious breakout candidate with minimal injury risk.
It may be premature to call Gurley durable, considering he missed the first two games of his professional career recovering from knee surgery. However, the Rams handled his treatment and return to play brilliantly by easing Gurley into the starting running back role. As a result, he put together an impressive rookie campaign that garnered him a Pro Bowl nod and Offensive Rookie of the Year accolades. Now, 20 months removed from surgery, it's all but certain that the biological properties of the graft resemble those of the original ligament, setting up Gurley for a complete and unencumbered training camp and drastically improving his chances at a healthy 2016.
Peterson redefined the expectations for players coming off of ACL surgery after he put together a MVP season just eight months after surgery. He's missed only two games to injury since suffering the knee injury and should be in line for another big year. There are concerns about his age and workload, but Peterson's suspension-reduced 2014 may help keep him fresh beyond age 30. Given his ability to define conventional thought regarding injury, don't count the veteran out just yet.
Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard
It's only fair that the two key members of the Bengals backfield be lumped together, as their pairing has served as somewhat of a symbiotic partnership. Combined, Hill and Bernard have missed just three games to injury out of a possible 80 aggregate regular season games. The presence of the other has allowed each running back to avoid excessive contact and has likely contributed to sustained good health. They're both under the age of 25 and should continue to be a fantasy friendly one-two punch.
Five Potentially Fragile Running Back for 2016 (min 150 projected carries)
The recently signed Foster is expected to play a major part in the Dolphins' offense. However the veteran is recovering from a ruptured Achilles tendon and has played just two full seasons in his seven-year career. In addition to the Achilles injury, Foster's laundry list of injuries includes back surgery, groin surgery and other lower extremity ailments. Don't expect Foster to be the fantasy friendly running back he once was and avoid making him the centerpiece of your offensive attack.
Since entering the league in 2010, Matthews has missed an average of 3.8 games a season. He's endured multiple concussions, broken both collarbones, and most recently needed surgery for a sports hernia. There were early signs that injuries could be a problem for the Fresno State product, as his collegiate career also included a broken foot and collarbone. He may currently sit atop the Eagles depth chart, but it's unlikely he plays in all 16 games.
Yes, Murray has missed just one game over the past two seasons, but the injury problems that limited him in his first three professional seasons shouldn't be overlooked. Concerns about his long-term health are a reason he fell to the Cowboys in the third round of the 2011 draft. He has since missed time with a broken ankle, a sprained foot and a knee sprain. The foot and knee issues are particularly worrisome as they occurred on the same leg. He's also dealt with recurring hamstring issues since college, raising yet another red flag in his injury profile. The Titans appear to be aware of his inherent risk, as they have added depth at the running back position.
Forte has been a fantasy stalwart, especially in PPR leagues, but the very thing that made him valuable could now limit his productivity. History shows that running backs who receive a large number of carries over multiple seasons are more prone to a rapid decline in production. Players like Eddie George, LaDainian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes and countless others have gone from elite to irrelevant quickly after years of shouldering a high workload. While Forte has recorded more than 300 rushing attempts just once in his career, his considerably large number of receptions has to be included in his total workload. As a result, Forte has averaged more than 300 touches a season for eight straight seasons. He's missed three games last year with a MCL sprain in his right knee and has managed hamstring, ankle and toe problems at various points of his career. Factor in the 30-year-old's age and there are plenty of reasons to suspect Forte takes a step back in New York.
Stewart hasn't played a full slate of games since the 2011 season, as chronic issues with lower extremities have kept him on the sidelines. He's needed surgery on both his ankles, including multiple scopes on his left ankle. He's managed multiple MCL sprains and was last seen limping off the field in Super Bowl 50 with a foot injury. The pain lingered into the summer, though Stewart insists he's healthy and ready to go. Consider me skeptical, as the veteran running back literally does not have a good foot to stand on.
