This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANTHERS | 49ers | 40.60% | 750 | 88.24% | 4.78 |
| Ravens | BROWNS | 18.10% | 275 | 73.33% | 4.83 |
| CARDINALS | Buccaneers | 10.30% | 265 | 72.60% | 2.82 |
| LIONS | Titans | 8.40% | 230 | 69.70% | 2.55 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 4.60% | 265 | 72.60% | 1.26 |
| BRONCOS | Colts | 3.80% | 245 | 71.01% | 1.10 |
| Seahawks | RAMS | 3.60% | 265 | 72.60% | 0.99 |
| RAIDERS | Falcons | 3.40% | 220 | 68.75% | 1.06 |
| GIANTS | Saints | 1.40% | 205 | 67.21% | 0.46 |
| Packers | VIKINGS | 1.00% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.45 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are really two choices here, according to the Vegas numbers: the Panthers at nearly 41 percent or the Seahawks at nearly four percent. The reason I pick the Seahawks is they're the lowest owned among the teams that Vegas gives roughly 73 percent chance to win.
Let's run the numbers: The odds of a Panthers win/Seahawks loss are 88.24 percent * 27.4 percent = 24.18 percent. The odds of a Seahawks win/Panthers loss are 11.76 percent * 72.6 percent = 8.54 percent. The risk ratio is pretty big here - 24.18/8.54 = 2.83.
As for the reward, in our hypothetical $10 pool with 100 entrants remaining, should the Panthers win and Seahawks lose, roughly four people would be gone, plus another 15
Let's take a look at this week's games:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANTHERS | 49ers | 40.60% | 750 | 88.24% | 4.78 |
| Ravens | BROWNS | 18.10% | 275 | 73.33% | 4.83 |
| CARDINALS | Buccaneers | 10.30% | 265 | 72.60% | 2.82 |
| LIONS | Titans | 8.40% | 230 | 69.70% | 2.55 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 4.60% | 265 | 72.60% | 1.26 |
| BRONCOS | Colts | 3.80% | 245 | 71.01% | 1.10 |
| Seahawks | RAMS | 3.60% | 265 | 72.60% | 0.99 |
| RAIDERS | Falcons | 3.40% | 220 | 68.75% | 1.06 |
| GIANTS | Saints | 1.40% | 205 | 67.21% | 0.46 |
| Packers | VIKINGS | 1.00% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.45 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There are really two choices here, according to the Vegas numbers: the Panthers at nearly 41 percent or the Seahawks at nearly four percent. The reason I pick the Seahawks is they're the lowest owned among the teams that Vegas gives roughly 73 percent chance to win.
Let's run the numbers: The odds of a Panthers win/Seahawks loss are 88.24 percent * 27.4 percent = 24.18 percent. The odds of a Seahawks win/Panthers loss are 11.76 percent * 72.6 percent = 8.54 percent. The risk ratio is pretty big here - 24.18/8.54 = 2.83.
As for the reward, in our hypothetical $10 pool with 100 entrants remaining, should the Panthers win and Seahawks lose, roughly four people would be gone, plus another 15 on other teams, leaving 81. With $1000 at stake, your piece would go from $10 to $1000/81 = $12.35.
If the Seahawks won and Panthers lost, 41 would go down with Carolina, plus 15 on other teams, leaving 44 remaining. Your equity would be $1000/44 = $22.73. So the reward ratio is 22.73/12.35 = 1.84. As you can see, it's not commensurate with the greater risk.
My Picks
1. Carolina Panthers
They're well rested, home and facing a 49ers team that has to travel to the east coast on a short week and play a 10 am body-clock game. Maybe the 49ers under Chip Kelly are an improved team, but it's a big ask for them to beat Carolina on the road. I give the Panthers a 90 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Baltimore Ravens - I love the coaching staff, and the Browns are a mess, but this squad isn't proven enough to take on the road.
Seattle Seahawks - For whatever reason, Jeff Fisher's Rams give them a tough time almost every year. With Russell Wilson banged up, this is a tough game on the road.
Arizona Cardinals - I think they'll bounce back, but Tampa Bay is a live dog with up and coming skill players.
New England Patriots - The Dolphins showed up in Seattle, and I'd expect them to do the same against their biggest rival. As great as the win in Arizona was, I won't take the Jimmy Garoppolo Patriots just yet unless the other options are poor or the odds are too good to pass up.
Detroit Lions - I despise the Titans more than most, but I have limited confidence in a Jim Caldwell/Matthew Stafford-led team.
Denver Broncos - The defense is great, but Andrew Luck vs. Trevor Siemian is a big disparty.
Oakland Raiders - They were lucky to win in New Orleans. Atlanta is bad, but the Raiders can't be trusted yet.
New York Giants I expect them to roll, but coach Ben McAdoo might keep the Saints in the game with overly conservative play calling.
