This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 3:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOLPHINS | Browns | 41.80% | 425 | 80.95% | 7.96 |
| COWBOYS | Bears | 16.20% | 310 | 75.61% | 3.95 |
| PACKERS | Lions | 13.00% | 340 | 77.27% | 2.95 |
| SEAHAWKS | 49ers | 8.80% | 412.5 | 80.49% | 1.72 |
| PANTHERS | Vikings | 6.40% | 295 | 74.68% | 1.62 |
| Cardinals | BILLS | 4.70% | 190 | 65.52% | 1.62 |
| BUCCANEERS | Rams | 2.60% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.81 |
| GIANTS | Redskins | 2.20% | 195 | 66.10% | 0.75 |
| Steelers | EAGLES | 1.50% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.56 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
From these numbers you can see the Seahawks are the clear play. They're barely less likely to win than the Dolphins, but far less owned. Of course, if you're like me, you used Seattle in Week 1 in most of your pools, so you have to look elsewhere. The question then is where? It's between the Dolphins (most likely to win, highest owned), the Packers (third most likely to win, third most owned) and the Panthers (fifth most likely to win, fifth most owned.) The Packers (at least according to the Vegas and polling numbers) trump the Cowboys on both fronts.
Let's compare the Packers to the Dolphins first, then we'll compare the winner to the Panthers.
The odds of a Packers win/Dolphins loss are 77.27 * 19.05 =
Let's take a look at Week 3:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOLPHINS | Browns | 41.80% | 425 | 80.95% | 7.96 |
| COWBOYS | Bears | 16.20% | 310 | 75.61% | 3.95 |
| PACKERS | Lions | 13.00% | 340 | 77.27% | 2.95 |
| SEAHAWKS | 49ers | 8.80% | 412.5 | 80.49% | 1.72 |
| PANTHERS | Vikings | 6.40% | 295 | 74.68% | 1.62 |
| Cardinals | BILLS | 4.70% | 190 | 65.52% | 1.62 |
| BUCCANEERS | Rams | 2.60% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.81 |
| GIANTS | Redskins | 2.20% | 195 | 66.10% | 0.75 |
| Steelers | EAGLES | 1.50% | 170 | 62.96% | 0.56 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
From these numbers you can see the Seahawks are the clear play. They're barely less likely to win than the Dolphins, but far less owned. Of course, if you're like me, you used Seattle in Week 1 in most of your pools, so you have to look elsewhere. The question then is where? It's between the Dolphins (most likely to win, highest owned), the Packers (third most likely to win, third most owned) and the Panthers (fifth most likely to win, fifth most owned.) The Packers (at least according to the Vegas and polling numbers) trump the Cowboys on both fronts.
Let's compare the Packers to the Dolphins first, then we'll compare the winner to the Panthers.
The odds of a Packers win/Dolphins loss are 77.27 * 19.05 = 14.72 percent. The odds of a Dolphins win/Packers loss are 80.95*22.73 = 18.4. The risk ratio, according to Vegas, is 18.4/14.72 = 1.25.
In the event of a Packers win/Dolphins loss in our hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, 42 people would go down with the Dolphins and another 11 on other teams. That would mean 47 were left. If your equity were $10, after Week 3 it would be $1000/47 = $21.28.
In the event of a Dolphins win/Packers loss, 13 would go down with the Packers, and another 11 on other teams, leaving 76 alive. If your equity were $10, after Week 3 it would be $1000/76 = $13.16. The reward ratio is $21.18/$13.16 = 1.61.
Clearly the Packers, according to Vegas, are the better pick.
What about the Packers vs. the Panthers?
Packers win/Panthers loss is 19.59 percent likely to happen. The reverse is 16.97 percent likely to happen. The risk ratio is 19.59/16.97 = 1.15
Should the Packers win and Panthers lose, 24 people would get knocked out (six with the Panthers and 18 others), leaving 76 left - $1000/76 = $13.16.
If the opposite happened, you'd lose 13 on the Packers and 18 others, i.e., 31 total - $1000/69 = $14.49. The reward ratio is $14.49/$13.16 = 1.10.
So by these numbers the Packers are narrowly better than the Panthers, but it's close enough to fudge if you think Vegas is even slightly off on either.
Personally, I'm skeptical about the Packers offense being all the way back too.
My Picks
1. Seattle Seahawks
I know Russell Wilson's banged up, and the offensive line is bad, but the 49ers offense should get owned by Seattle's defense in Seattle, and Wilson was able to play, albeit not that effectively, last week. I give the Seahawks an 82 percent chance to win this game.
2a. Green Bay Packers
I'm not in love with this choice, but part of Green Bay's struggles might have been rust in Week 1 and a tough road matchup in Week 2. This week they're finally at home and facing a beatable Lions defense. I expect Green Bay's offense to play better. I give the Packers a 75 percent chance to win this game.
2b. Dallas Cowboys
Brian Hoyer is an above average backup, and the Cowboys don't do a good job against the run. But the Bears can't run against anyone, and the Cowboys should move the ball against Chicago's weak defense. I give the Cowboys a 76 percent chance to win this game.
2c. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers offense is very good with the nearly unstoppable Cam Newton and rising star Kelvin Benjamin back. Their defense has taken a step back with the loss of Josh Norman, but the Vikings might not have time to exploit that with tackle Matt Kalil out for the year. I give the Panthers a 75 percent chance to win this game.
5. Miami Dolphins
If I were merely trying to survive this week, I would take the Dolphins against rookie Cody Kessler. But they're 42 percent owned, so the payoff if they lose is too big to pass up, given their smaller but not insignificant risk. I give the Dolphins an 82 percent chance to win this game.
Notable omissions: none
Bottom line, I'm fairly torn between the Packers, Panthers and Cowboys and will probably spread around the choices between them in my pools.
