NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Monday Night

Chicago (+7.5) at Green Bay, 46 o/u – Thursday, 8:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: Those of you (OK, us) who keep waiting for the other shoe to drop with Brian Hoyer might need to be patient. Hoyer's string of games with two TD passes got snapped last week, but not his string of games with 300 or more passing yards, and now he faces a Packers defense that sits 27th in YPA allowed (8.3), 26th in QB rating against (101.7) and is hoping Charles Woodson's agent will return their calls and talk his client into coming out of retirement due to all their injuries at cornerback. Green Bay's defense will certainly be motivated after the butt-whupping it took from Dallas' rookie duo in Week 6, but motivation may not be enough to overcome the secondary's gaping talent deficit. ... Speaking of talent deficits, the short week for the Packers has gutted their backfield. Eddie Lacy won't play due to an ankle injury, and with James Starks (knee) already out they're reduced to using practice squadder Don Jackson, Chiefs' castoff Knile Davis and wide receiver Ty Montgomery at running back. Davis, at least, has a bit of a track record of NFL success as an injury sub, but given how little time he'll get to learn the offense, Jackson might end up seeing more snaps. Without Lacy, there'll be even more pressure on Aaron Rodgers to produce. Last week's 294 passing yards were a season high for Rodgers, which is kind of shocking, but at least it's a step in the right direction. The Bears' pass rush isn't anything special either, recording 13 sacks in six games, but if they don't need to worry much about the run game and can just pin their ears back and attack, it might be another scrambly, sloppy night for Rodgers. ... Chicago does have a few injuries of their own, aside from Jay Cutler's thumb which the team is going to give all the time in the world to heal so they can delay telling him he's lost his job. Eddie Royal (toe) is out, though Cameron Meredith's emergence has reduced his role anyway, while Zach Miller continues to play through a rib injury.


Predictions: Jordan Howard bashes out 60 yards. Hoyer falls back to earth a little, throwing for 250 yards, but he does hit Alshon Jeffery for two TDs. Davis ends up leading the Packers' backfield with 50 yards, but Jackson is the one that scores. Rodgers throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Jordy Nelson and Montgomery. Packers 24-17

NY Giants at Los Angeles (+3), 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 9:30 am EDT

Comments: Did Ben McAdoo finally figure it out? Odell Beckham's big second half last week looked more like the offense everyone was expecting from the Giants coming into this season, but it was also only two quarters compared to the 22 quarters of stale, conservative mediocrity that preceded them, so I need a little more convincing that McAdoo will actually release the kraken rather than yank back on its leash. Last week's game was also more conducive to throwing the ball, as the Ravens' run defense is among the toughest in the league. The Rams are giving up 115.7 rushing yards per game, 23rd in the league, and their 4.2 YPC allowed puts them 19th. With Rashad Jennings one week healthier, it's easy to imagine that McAdoo will get sucked into a ground war with Todd Gurley instead of letting Eli Manning fling it 46 times again. ... Speaking of surprising revivals from passing games, Case Keenum actually looked like an NFL quarterback last week, albeit against the league's worst pass defense in the Lions. The Giants' defense isn't such a pushover, sitting in the top 10 in YPA allowed, TD passes allowed and QB rating against. Their run defense is also stout (sixth in YPC allowed at 3.5), which doesn't leave the Rams with many good options on offense, but Gurley needs other teams to start respecting Los Angeles' passing game if he's going to get back on pace. He hasn't topped 3.1 YPC through the first five games of the season before managing a 4.1 last week when Keenum was lighting it up. ... The Rams are pretty healthy on offense, but Trumaine Johnson (ankle) will probably miss his second straight game. Beckham is still nursing the hip pointer he suffered in the first half last week, but should play.

Predictions: Jennings manages 70 combined yards. Manning throws for 250 yards and TDs to Beckham (who tops 100 yards) and Victor Cruz. Gurley picks up 80 combined yards and his first career receiving touchdown, while Keenum can't repeat last week's performance, throwing for 180 yards and getting picked off twice. Giants, 23-7

New Orleans (+6.5) at Kansas City, 50.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Last week's win over the Panthers isn't as impressive as it would've been last year, but the Saints do seem to have turned a corner after their 0-3 start. Rookie receiver Michael Thomas has scored in three straight games and has stepped fairly seamlessly into Marques Colston's role in the offense, while Coby Fleener has nearly perfected his Jimmy Graham impression while adding a little Craig Heyward riff to his set last week. All that said, this doesn't seem like the week for Drew Brees to buck his usual home/road split trend. The Chiefs sit fifth in QB rating against (76.9) and are tied with the Cardinals for the league lead in INTs with nine. ... Last week, Kansas City coach Andy Reid talked about Jamaal Charles being ready for an expanded workload, but the result was just 11 touches and a clear secondary role behind Spencer Ware. This week, Reid is stressing that Charles isn't ready to resume his every-down spot, but whether that's due to lingering soreness in his knee or Reid not wanting to take Ware out of the starting job isn't clear. Fumbling issues aside, Ware's certainly done nothing to encourage Reid to make a switch, gaining at least 100 yards from scrimmage in four of five games this year (and 83 yards in the fifth one.) The Saints are 26th in rushing yards allowed (117.8 per game), dead last in rushing TDs allowed (11) and have been terrible against pass-catching backs to boot though, so no matter how the snaps are distributed between them, both KC backs are well-positioned for productive weeks. ... The two-headed backfield could have an interesting effect on Alex Smith's numbers. Through the first quarter of the season, he was on pace for 672 passing attempts, which would shatter his previous career high of 508, but with Charles back in the mix in Week 6 his attempts plummeted to a more Smith-like 22. That will likely be the case more often than not, but the Saints' vulnerability to pass-catching backs could lead to a reprise of Smith's gunslinging start if the Chiefs exploit that weakness – and next week's opponent, the Colts, might be even worse in that department. It might not be time to kick Smith back to the waiver wire just yet.

Predictions: Mark Ingram has his best game of the season, rushing for 90 yards and a touchdown, but Brees throws for only 240 yards and a score to Fleener. Ware leads the Chiefs backfield with 110 combined yards and a receiving TD, while Charles adds 80 yards and a rushing touchdown of his own. Smith throws for 280 yards and a second score to Albert Wilson. Chiefs, 27-17

Indianapolis (+2.5) at Tennessee, 48 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Colts missed their chance to get back to the top of the AFC South last week, but in a division where every team has given up more points than it's scored so far, there are no real leaders, only teams not as good as losing. Indy remains almost entirely dependant on Andrew Luck for their success, but you'd never know it from the way they block for him. Luck is on pace to sacked a disgraceful 61 times this year, and a Tennessee pass rush that ranks fifth with 18 sacks through six weeks isn't likely to leave Luck upright for very long. ... It would help Luck if he had any healthy WRs. Donte Moncrief (shoulder) remains out, and now T.Y. Hilton (hip) and Phillip Dorsett (hamstring/foot) are on the limp as well. Even Quan Bray (ankle) landed on IR. Chester Rogers, who has 10 targets over the last two games, suddenly looks like a viable waiver pickup. Tennessee, unlike the unlucky Luck (on the injury report with an ankle issue of his own) and his teammates, head into this one basically healthy. ... The Titans might well be in that "not as good at losing" category, but a two-point win over the lowly Browns isn't exactly a glowing endorsement of their talent. Something may have clicked for Marcus Mariota, though. After a slow start to his sophomore campaign, he's thrown three TDs in back-to-back games with at least a 69 percent completion rate in each, and the Titans won both games. Despite those impressive numbers though, he's only thrown for a total of 447 yards in the two wins, as he still lacks a true No. 1 target. Delanie Walker and Kendall Wright are useful complementary pieces, and Rishard Matthews has scored in consecutive weeks despite just seven total targets, but Mariota lacks a game-breaking option he can rely on in clutch situations. Fortunately for Mariota, the Colts are just as bad against the run as they are against the pass, so he can continue to lean on DeMarco Murray to do all the heavy lifting in the offense.

Predictions: Frank Gore grinds out 60 yards. Luck throws for 240 yards but gets held out of the end zone and sacked six times, including twice by Brian Orakpo and once for a safety. Murray runs for a season-high 140 yards and two TDs, while Mariota throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Walker, and runs in another score. Titans, 33-9

Minnesota at Philadelphia (+2.5), 40 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: So how good are the Vikings, exactly? They're the last undefeated team in the league despite the fact that the only team they've faced with a losing record is the Panthers, and advanced ranking systems like Massey-Peabody put them right in the mix at the top of the NFL. On the other hand, Sam Bradford. His 7.9 YPA and 6:0 TD:INT so far are, well, let's just say they're inconsistent with his previous track record. He also doesn't have good numbers in Philadelphia, throwing for more INTs than TDs last year in seven home games for the Eagles. Systems can make a huge difference for a QB (just ask Matthew Stafford) but it's still hard to shake the thought that Bradford is playing way over his head right now and, even on a team that doesn't need a huge contribution from him due to their excellent defense and solid running game, a correction should be coming. ... A couple of weeks ago, this game looked like it could have huge implications for the NFC playoff picture down the road, but since getting their bye the Eagles have lost all their momentum. They've dropped two straight to less-than-elite teams, and Carson Wentz has started to look a little more like a rookie. The real culprit though has been a defense that's come out flat in the first half in two straight games – the Lions and Washington each scored three TDs in the first two quarters against Philly, but were held to field goals in the second half. If Jim Schwartz can get his crew to wake up before the opening kickoff, they could easily pull the upset. ... Stefon Diggs, the only name of note on either injury report, was back at practice this week after recovering from a groin injury and seems on track to play.

Predictions: Jerick McKinnon racks up 90 yards and a TD, while Bradford throws for 230 yards and a touchdown to Adam Thielen. Ryan Mathews gains 60 yards, and Darren Sproles chips in 50 yards and a receiving TD. Wentz overcomes a pick-six to Terence Newman, throwing for 270 yards and a second score to Jordan Matthews. Eagles, 23-21

Cleveland (+9.5) at Cincinnati, 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: Can the Browns actually go 0-16? It's not out of the question. They've got the reeling Jets next week, and face a Chargers team in Week 16 that's proven no lead is too big for them to cough up, but other than that it's hard to see where a win might come from on their remaining schedule. Even Ben Roethlisberger will probably be back in action before the Steelers come up on the Browns' slate. In the short term though, they at least got a bit of good news when Cody Kessler avoided a serious injury when he left the Pats game early, but now Terrelle Pryor (hamstring) is less than 100 percent. With no reliable weapons at Kessler's disposal, what chance they have of stealing this one may have to come from Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson, but the Bengals are vulnerable against the run, ranking 20th in YPC allowed (4.2) and rushing yards allowed per game (108.2). ... Cinci has been one of many disappointments among expected Super Bowl contenders through the early part of the season, but their four losses have come against teams with a combined record of 18-6, so blame the schedule-makers. Andy Dalton has only six TD passes through six games, but he should be able to make up for lost time in this one. The Browns rank 31st in TD passes allowed (16), which makes their 28th place ranking in YPA allowed (8.3) seem almost acceptable. ... Tyler Eifert (back/ankle) might finally be ready to make his 2016 debut this weekend. In addition to Pryor, Joe Haden (groin) will probably miss another game for the Browns.

Predictions: Crowell runs for 70 yards and a score, while Johnson chips in 50 combined yards and a receiving TD. Kessler does little else though, throwing for just 180 yards and getting picked off twice. Jeremy Hill rumbles for 60 yards and a touchdown, and Giovani Bernard adds 80 combined yards. Dalton throws for 320 yards and three TDs, two to A.J. Green (who hauls in 130 yards) and one to the returning Eifert. Bengals, 34-17

Washington (+1.5) at Detroit, 49.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: If you're looking for the most volatile game on the Week 7 schedule, you've found it. Washington can't stop the run, the Lions can't stop the pass (and it's not like either defense is great at the other half of that equation either), both offenses have looked alternately unstoppable and anemic (sometimes in the same game) and are led by mistake-prone gunslingers, and both teams need wins to try and keep pace in divisions that could quickly get away from them if they aren't careful. Fasten your seat belts, this could be a bumpy ride. ... Kirk Cousins hasn't been quite as sharp as he was last year – he's on pace for more passing yards but a lower completion percentage, lower YPA, and much worse TD:INT – but Detroit's defense should be able to help him out with that. They rank dead last in QB rating against (119.3) thanks in large part to a dreadful 17:3 TD:INT, and their front seven is a mess with DeAndre Levy (quad), Haloti Ngata (shoulder) out and Ezekiel Ansah (ankle) and Tahir Whitehead (abdomen) not at 100 percent. Washington has their own injury issues on offense with Jordan Reed (concussion) sidelined and DeSean Jackson (shoulder) missing practice earlier in the week, but the Lions can't cover anybody right now, so Cousins should still have plenty of open options even if his top two targets aren't on the field. ... Detroit's running game could get a little bit healthier Sunday with Dwayne Washington (ankle) expected to return. The rookie hasn't really shown a lot this year but he also hasn't had many chances before now, and with Theo Riddick (ankle) out and Justin Forsett (old age) not looking like he has anything left in the tank, Washington could see all the touches he can handle against a defense giving up 5.0 YPC, last in the NFL.

Predictions: Matt Jones rushes for 80 yards and a touchdown, while Cousins throws for 300 yards and TDs to Jackson, Jamison Crowder and Chris Thompson. Washington seizes his opportunity, running for 110 yards and two scores. Matthew Stafford throws for 330 yards and two touchdowns of his own, finding Marvin Jones and Golden Tate. A late Cousins pick ends a comeback attempt for the visitors. Lions, 31-28

Oakland (+1) at Jacksonville, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: While it might be premature to say the Raiders got exposed last week by the Chiefs, a 26-10 thumping by a division rival in your own building (for however long it is their building) doesn't exactly suggest they're ready to take the AFC West crown. Part of the issue was Latavius Murray's toe injury, as neither DeAndre Washington nor Jalen Richard was able to take advantage of a fairly soft Chiefs run defense. Murray looks like he's ready to return but he doesn't get a cushy matchup, as the Jags sit just outside the top 10 in YPC allowed (3.8). He doesn't need to be great, but if he can provide some balance to an offense that does better when it doesn't have to rely solely on Derek Carr – especially against a young secondary that sits third in the league in YPA allowed (6.2) -- Oakland should be able to bounce back. ... The Jags, on the other hand, flat stole one in Chicago last week. The Bears managed to keep Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns in check, so of course Blake Bortles finds Allen, err, Arrelious Benn for the winning TD. They were probably due for some better luck though after losing winnable games against the Packers and Ravens earlier. Bortles has been nowhere near as productive as he was in 2015, but if he can't get things going against a Raiders defense that sits last in the NFL in YPA allowed (8.9!), he's never going to do it. ... Julius Thomas (ankle) is expected to play for Jacksonville, while Murray is the only major name on the Raiders' injury report.

Predictions: Murray runs for 50 yards. Carr throws for 230 yards and touchdowns to Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Chris Ivory leads the Jags' backfield with 60 yards and a TD, while Bortles throws for 270 yards and two TDs to Robinson while getting picked off twice. Jaguars, 27-23

Buffalo at Miami (+3), 44 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Bills have been dominating without Sammy Watkins (foot), but can they do it without LeSean McCoy too? McCoy's a game-time decision due to a hamstring strain, and if he can't play it's a big step down to Mike Gillislie, Reggie Bush and/or rookie Jonathan Williams. On the other hand, the Dolphins are giving up 147 yards a game on the ground (31st in the league), so whoever gets the carries in Shady's place could still end up producing some big numbers. ... Miami's backfield seems a lot less up in the air this week. Arian Foster's return just motivated Jay Ajayi to prove he deserved the lead role, and he torched the Steelers for 204 yards and two scores. Buffalo's been less vulnerable to opposition runners though, sitting 10th in the league in YPC allowed (3.8) compared to Pittsburgh's 4.6 and 26th. They're also the only defense so far this year to hold David Johnson under 120 yards from scrimmage, so don't look for Ajayi to come close to a repeat. That's going to put more pressure on Ryan Tannehill to deliver points, and we all know how Tannehill handles pressure of any kind. ... Robert Woods (foot) is also likely out for the Bills, while Charles Clay (ankle) was limited in practice this week. The Dolphins will be missing their top two tight ends, as Jordan Cameron and Dion Sims are both out with concussions.

Predictions: McCoy doesn't play and Gillislie gains 50 yards, but it's Williams who emerges with 80 yards and a TD. Tyrod Taylor runs for a score as well but throws for only 160 yards and a touchdown to Marquise Goodwin. Ajayi scratches out 60 yards and a TD. Tannehill throws for 270 yards and a touchdown to Jarvis Landry, but also gets picked off twice, including once in the final minutes to snuff out a last-chance Miami drive. Bills, 24-23

Baltimore (+1) at NY Jets, 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Ravens avoided a scare when Joe Flacco returned to practice Friday from a shoulder injury, but given his 5:4 TD:INT and 6.0 YPA through six games, maybe the scary thing is having him under center. Marty Mornhinweg's promotion to offensive coordinator did help get Flacco to his second 300-yard game of the season last week, but it came at the expense of his worst completion percentage of the year and no TDs. Mike Wallace continues to be his top target by default, but Breshad Perriman is starting to become more involved, seeing a season-high eight targets against the Giants. Granted, he only turned them into three catches for 48 yards, but baby steps. Darrelle Revis is healthy again for the Jets, but they've been terrible against the pass whether he's been in the lineup or not, sitting 31st in YPA allowed (8.8) and QB rating against (114.7) while being tied for worst in the league with just two INTs. ... It's a mark of how desperate the Jets are to turn things around that they're giving Geno Smith another shot. Don't get me wrong, Ryan Fitzpatrick was playing some awful football and needed to be replaced, but there is no question to which Geno is the correct answer other than, "Hey, who's that guy who got sucker-punched by a teammate in the locker room last year?" Baltimore sits sixth in YPA allowed (6.6) too, although their secondary is in bad shape with Jimmy Smith (concussion) the headliner among their walking wounded. The Ravens get a bye next week, so don't be surprised if they are cautious with their DBs given the level of competition they're facing. ... Terrell Suggs (biceps), Elvis Dumervil (foot) and C.J. Mosley (thigh) are also out for Baltimore, leaving them very thin on defense. Muhammad Wilkerson (ankle) is the biggest name on the Jets' injury report but is expected to play.

Predictions: Terrance West picks up 50 yards. Flacco throws for 240 yards and TDs to Perriman and Dennis Pitta. Matt Forte manages only 30 yards, while Smith throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Brandon Marshall but runs in a second score. Jets, 20-17

Tampa Bay at San Francisco (+2), 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Comments: Color me skeptical about Jacquizz Rodgers' big game prior to the Bucs' bye. It's not that it came against a bad run defense – the Panthers are third in the league in YPC against at 3.3 – but it did come against a team for whom everything seemed to be going wrong, including giving up 100 yards rushing to Jacquizz Rodgers. The former Falcon and Bear has just never shown this kind of ability on the ground before, and it's not like Atlanta doesn't know how to use its running backs. The Niners are brutal against the run, though (31st at 5.0 YPC), so the fact that Rodgers probably isn't an answer for Tampa while Doug Martin (hamstring) and Charles Sims (knee) are out doesn't mean he can't have another big game on his way back to obscurity. ... Colin Kaepernick's return to the starting lineup last week was fairly anticlimactic, as he showed both the athletic ability that got everyone so excited about him in the first place, and the lack of accuracy that opened the door for Blaine Gabbert last year. The Bucs do sit 29th in YPA allowed at 8.6 and with Carlos Hyde (shoulder) sidelined, San Fran could use some more offense through the air, but Kaepernick may not be the guy to take full advantage of that matchup. ... Torrey Smith is dealing with a back injury, but is expected to play. Gerald McCoy (calf) could return to action for the Bucs to shore up their run defense, but will likely see limited snaps if he does.

Predictions: Rodgers records 70 yards from scrimmage, while Jameis Winston throws for 260 yards and two TDs, with Mike Evans pulling down half those yards and both scores. Mike Davis leads the 49ers backfield with 80 yards. Kaepernick adds 60 rushing yards of his own, and throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Jeremy Kerley and Shaun Draughn. 49ers, 20-14

San Diego (+6.5) at Atlanta, 53.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Chargers managed not to blow one last week, actually holding on despite a late comeback attempt by the Broncos, but holding onto a late lead probably won't be an issue for them this week. Their secondary has held up remarkably well without Jason Verrett (knee) or Brandon Flowers (concussion), but they also haven't faced a receiver like Julio Jones or a quarterback as hot at Matt Ryan without them. The Falcons' pass defense is shaky too, sitting 24th in QB rating against at 99.1 and third-worst with 14 passing TDs allowed, so Philip Rivers will have a puncher's chance of landing some bombs of his own, but it's very easy to see this one getting out of hand quickly. ... Atlanta's four-game winning streak came to an end last week, but a two-point loss in Seattle probably bolstered their case to be taken seriously. The Chargers have been solid against the run, sitting fifth in rushing yards allowed per game (83.5) and just outside the top 10 in YPC allowed (3.8), but their eight rushing TDs surrendered, none longer than six yards, points to a red zone vulnerability that Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman can exploit. ... Travis Benjamin is questionable for San Diego with a knee injury. Aside from a couple of depth players, Atlanta heads into the game fairly healthy.

Predictions: Melvin Gordon gains 50 yards. Rivers throws for 290 yards and TDs to Antonio Gates and Dontrelle Inman. Freeman gains 70 yards and a touchdown, while Coleman nearly matches him with 60 yards and a score. Ryan throws for 380 yards and three TDs, two to Julio (who pulls down 140 yards) and one to Jacob Tamme. Falcons, 38-17

New England at Pittsburgh (+7), 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Comments: What looked like it was going to be a clash between two AFC title contenders and two of the league's elite QBs instead will be an exercise in how many mistakes Bill Belichick can sucker Landry Jones into making, after Ben Roethlisberger underwent surgery on his knee. Jones was unimpressive, to put it politely, last year when he filled in for Big Ben (although technically he was filling in for Michael Vick, who filled in for Ben). Former Titans starter Zach Mettenberger, the new No. 2, isn't necessarily an upgrade, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him get some snaps Sunday if Jones struggles. Regardless of which of them is under center though, losing Roethlisberger is a huge blow to a very fantasy-friendly aerial attack. ... Tom Brady's return certainly livened up the Pats' offense. In consecutive weeks, Martellus Bennett and James White scored multiple TDs while Rob Gronkowski regained his spot as the league's most dangerous tight end. Who will be this week's lucky winner of the Brady Paydirt Lottery? The Steelers have allowed other team's top wideouts to run rampant, so maybe Julian Edelman wakes up. On the other hand, they've also allowed 4.6 YPC and six rushing TDs, so maybe it's LeGarrette Blount's turn. It being the Pats though, it's just as likely to be a player no one sees coming, so anyone out there with Matthew Slater shares in best ball leagues (all three of you), this is your time to shine! ... Edelman (foot) and Bennett (ankle) are on the injury report but should play for New England. Markus Wheaton (shoulder) and DeAngelo Williams (knee) are out for Pittsburgh.

Predictions: Blount rumbles for 60 yards and a TD. Brady throws for 320 yards and touchdowns to Gronk, Edelman and Chris Hogan. Le'Veon Bell racks up 110 combined yards and a score, but Jones is held to just 170 yards and no TDs while getting picked off twice. Mettenberger sees the field in the fourth quarter and hits Antonio Brown for a meaningless touchdown. Patriots, 34-20

Seattle (+2) at Arizona, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: Another tilt that looked a lot better on paper before the season started, the two NFC West powerhouses have somehow combined to lose four games already despite the Seahawks already having had their bye. After a rough start, both offenses have found their stride – Seattle's scored 90 points in their last three games, Arizona 61 in their last two – against the sad-sack 49ers and Jets, with Seattle's extra game coming against the Falcons, so there's some question about what either one might be able to do against a real defense. Both squads rank in the top four in QB rating against, while the Seahawks are also second in YPC allowed. It's easy to say, but this game will probably come down to which quarterback can impose their will on the game, and there Seattle has a huge advantage as Carson Palmer is dealing with a hamstring injury. Given how Drew Stanton looked the last time Palmer was hurt, expect the veteran to play if he can at least hobble around. ... Speaking on imposing their will, holy schnikes, David Johnson. The second-year back's worst game of the season so far came in Week 3, when he only got 111 yards from scrimmage and two TDs. Or maybe it was Week 4, when he failed to score but racked up 124 yards. This is what passes for failure in DJ's world. Ezekiel Elliott is getting all the attention right now, but Johnson is clearly the best back in the NFL. The 'Hawks did hold Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman to a combined 67 yards last week though, so maybe they'll be able to stymie Johnson where no one else has. ... Kam Chancellor (groin) is probably out for Seattle. In addition to Palmer, John Brown (leg) and Jaron Brown (knee) are banged up for the Cards, with Jaron more likely to play.

Predictions: Christine Michael gets held to just 30 yards. Russell Wilson throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Doug Baldwin, and Tyler Lockett returns a punt to the house. Johnson manages 70 yards and a score, while Palmer plays but throws for only 210 yards and a TD to Michael Floyd. Seahawks, 23-17

Houston (+7.5) at Denver, 40.5 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT

Comments: The Texans barely escaped in overtime against the Colts last week, ruining my careful and objective determination that no team in the awful AFC South deserves a winning record. The offense rode Lamar Miller to the win, and despite the Broncos' tough defensive reputation it's not out of the question for Miller to do it again. Denver's 20th in rushing yards allowed per game (112.7), mainly because their offense can't really put anyone away and force them to abandon the ground game. All eyes will be on Brock Osweiler in his return to his former home stadium, but if Houston expects Osweiler to produce much against arguably the league's top pass rush (21 sacks in six games) and its best secondary (Denver's third in QB rating against at 71.0), then they're taking that "revenge game" thing way too far. ... I've come full circle on Trevor Siemian. When he won the starting job, I expected him to be nothing more than a caretaker at the helm of a run-heavy offense. Then he destroyed the Bengals in Cincinnati, and I figured I'd better re-evaluate his upside. Three weeks and one dud performance against a Chargers defense with no healthy cornerbacks later, I'm right back to viewing him as a caretaker. The Texans don't have that Super Bowl sheen on their defense that the Broncos do, and there's no doubt that the loss of J.J. Watt hurts, but Vikings game aside they've held up pretty well so far without their defensive MVP. They sit 29th in rushing yards allowed though (126.3 per game), so while Siemian may not be able to beat them, he may not have to. ... If Houston does get beat on the ground, which RB is going to beat them? C.J. Anderson continues to start but hasn't topped 50 rushing yards since Week 2, while Devontae Booker has been making the most of his touches (46 yards on five carries last week) and has the coaching staff talking about getting him more work. Ever since Denver popped Booker in the fourth round of this year's draft, it seemed only a matter of time until he started to bump Anderson aside for the starting job. A big showing in prime time Monday could kick that battle off in earnest.

Predictions: Miller picks up 60 yards and scores. Osweiler gets held to 170 yards with no TDs, and gets picked off twice. Anderson runs for 50 yards but gets out-done by Booker, who gains 80 yards and a touchdown. Siemian throws for 220 yards and a TD to Bennie Fowler. Broncos, 20-13

Last week's record: 11-4, 6-7-2 ATS, 4-11 o/u
2016 regular season record: 52-40, 40-48-4 ATS, 43-47-2 o/u