East Coast Offense: The Difference Makers

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

Normally, I devote a good deal of this space each week to excoriating some aspect of the NFL - whether it's coaching cowardice and stupidity, ill-treatment of players, interventionist referees or league office incompetence/malfeasance. But on an Election Day for which the campaign seemed longer and darker than any I can remember, I'm not feeling it. To go on a diatribe about the refs in the Bills-Seahawks game, the absurd celebration penalties or Ben McAdoo's cowardly play calling and disdain for analytics seems like swatting a firefly in front of a forest fire.

Lest you think I'm about to make the case for one of the two candidates, be assured I will not. My only hope is whoever wins does so with the lowest conceivable turnout and the smallest possible mandate, so either faces maximum resistance when inevitably implementing policies harmful to human beings at home and abroad. As dystopian as the NFL can sometimes be, it's only a game, and if it went out of business entirely, it wouldn't be the end of the world, even for those of us who depend on it in large part for our livelihoods. So McAdoo largely gets a pass this week, and so does the execrable Roger Goodell. (I do briefly trash Mike McCarthy, Chuck Pagano and Joe Buck in the "Observations" section, but I wrote those Monday morning, and in any event, it's brief.)

The Difference Makers

Every year there are a handful of players that are instrumental in winning (and losing) leagues. We won't have the answer key until after Week 16, but through nine weeks, here's a round by round look (based on NFFC ADP):

Only one top-five-round WR is a winner so far this year: Mike Evans. One could argue Julio Jones and A.J. Green belong in the winners column, but for a first-round pick, the bar is high. They've perhaps earned a small profit from their lofty draft slots, but I don't think they're winning your league for you. In Green's case, he has only three TDs, and in Jones' he's played nine games, and his production has been extremely uneven.

Half the third round was entirely worthless. I didn't put many QBs in either column because few used a top-three round pick on them, and they're so replaceable in any event.

There are no killers after Round 7, and in fairness, even the busts in Rounds 5-7 probably didn't cost anyone their leagues. There also are very few healthy players that killed teams. Even Lockett, Parker, Randall Cobb, Michael Floyd and Jeremy Maclin have played through injuries leaving only DeAndre Hopkins, Todd Gurley, Allen Robinson and Julian Edelman as healthy busts.

Basically, if your non-first rounders stayed healthy and weren't missing their QB for a month, they probably didn't hurt you too much, though Maclin, Floyd and Cobb were arguably busts even when healthy.

Finally, unless you're in a league with a deep bench like the NFFC, slow developing breakouts like Jay Ajayi don't do you much good on draft day, as many owners understandably dropped him when the Dolphins had a four-back committee.

Bad Beat in Survivor

I had the Vikings in Survivor, and while I've been knocked out on more dramatic and improbable final plays before, the entire end-game sequence had to be my most brutal exit of all time. The Vikings were down 10-3 at the half, and after stalling again on offense early in the third quarter, finally punched in a score with four minutes left in the period. But kicker Blair Walsh missed the extra point, so the Vikings were still trailing 10-9. The Vikings drove down again into field-goal range early in the fourth quarter, but Walsh's 46-yard attempt was not only blocked but returned for 32 yards, setting up a 52 yard attempt for Matt Prater, which he made, to make it 13-9. The Vikings drove down again to the Lions six-yard line to bring up a third-and-two (with eight minutes left), but got stuffed twice, turning the ball over on downs.

The Vikings got the ball back again with 4:14 left, drove the length of the field and found themselves 3rd-and-goal from the one-yard line with 40 seconds left, two time outs, the clock running and Detroit with no time outs. Vikings coach Mike Zimmer let the clock run a bit, but called a timeout with 27 seconds left. Barring a penalty the Vikings had two plays, and a timeout left to stop the clock in between, so they needed only 10 seconds or so. If there were a penalty that set them back and another that gave them a first down without a TD, like an end-zone PI, I could see how they might have wanted some extra time. But they were running it twice, so penalties were less likely, and a defensive penalty would have extended the game for one play even if there were no time left. Bottom line, 27 seconds was too much, and Zimmer should have at least let it run down to 15 or 20.

As a result, after the Vikings scored on the third-down play and got a touchback on the kickoff, there were 23 seconds left for the Lions. On the first play, Matt Stafford completed a harmless eight-yard out to the sideline, leaving 17 seconds. Then the Vikings give up a 27-yard gain over the middle, Stafford spiked it with three seconds left and Prater hit a 58-yard field goal to send it to overtime. In overtime, the Vikings lost the coin toss, the Lions got the ball and converted a 3rd-and-8, a 3rd-and-10 and a 3rd-and-8 (on the final TD) to win it.

Had Walsh made the PAT or the FG, the blocked FG not been returned 32 yards, the Vikings made the first down on 3rd or 4th down, Zimmer called timeout 10 seconds later, Stafford not completed a 27-yard pass with three seconds left, not gotten up the field to spike it in time, Prater not hit a 58-yarder (his second of 50-plus kick of the game), the Lions not won the toss, or the Lions not converted three third-and-longs on the overtime drive, I might still be alive today.

Week 9 Observations

• Credit to Jim Caldwell using his timeouts on defense on the Vikings final drive. It seems obvious, but Mike McCarthy did not do so against the Falcons last week, and it likely cost the Packers the game.

• After starting the season on fire Marvin Jones has fallen off dramatically. His first four games yielded 36 targets, 23 catches and 482 yards (120.5 YPG), his last five, 28 targets, 14 catches and 179 yards (36 YPG.)

•Eric Ebron is a top-10 TE with top-five upside.

•Stefon Diggs wasn't efficient, but he's had 27 targets and 21 catches the last two weeks. Cordarelle Patterson looked good until he dropped a potentially game-tying TD on the Vikings' final drive. Still, he and Adam Thielen are 2 and 2a among the receivers right now.

• The Giants insist on forcing the run no matter how ineffective it is, essentially gifting downs to the defense. It was nice to see Paul Perkins split carries with Rashad Jennings, but neither was effective. Expect Perkins, now that he's trusted, to take over the job barring a fumble or whiff on blitz pickup.

• The Giants got out to an early lead for once because they targeted Odell Beckham in the first quarter. Unfortunately, they took their foot off the gas in the second half.

•Dorial Green-Beckham had five targets, at least three of which were in the end zone, but failed to catch a single one. The Eagles desperately want him to be that guy, but so far it's not working, and I might finally have to give up myself.

•Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz were back to being the clear top targets again after a half season in the wilderness.

• Joe Buck and Troy Aikman were especially terrible during the broadcast, constantly harping on and berating Eagles coach Doug Pederson for correctly passing up field-goals on 4th-and-short deep in Giants territory.

• As bad as Buck and Aikman were, the announcers in the Rams-Panthers game were worse. When the Rams, trailing by 10 with a minute left, got to 1st-and-goal from the Panthers six-yard line, they advocated going for the field goal. "They need both scores anyway, so might as well kick here." That would be great advice if only it were just as easy to score a TD from midfield as it is from six yards out. It's far easier to make a 50-yard field-goal than it is to throw a 33 yard TD pass on a given play when the defense knows you're doing it. Great back-door push by the Rams in any event.

• It still amazes me the Rams haven't given Jared Goff a shot.

• I set the Cowboys-Browns line at 7.5, exactly the Vegas line, so I had my pick of either team, and I lazily went with the home dog even though it felt wrong. The Cowboys might not have Super Bowl upside (though who knows, they might), but what they do have, given their style, is a high floor. A high floor against the Browns is auto-cover.

•Ezekiel Elliott had a disappointing 97 yards from scrimmage, however. He averaged 5.1 YPC and scored twice, but if you were an Elliott owner you had to be thinking 200-plus was in play. Alfred Morris got 17 carries in garbage time instead.

•Dez Bryant saw only four targets, catching one for 19 yards. I wouldn't get too worried – game flow was not on his side – but the Cowboys don't make it a point to get him involved the way the Steelers do with Antonio Brown or the Bengals with A.J. Green.

•Jason Witten had a huge game, and it was annoying how they kept cutting into the games I was watching to show his lame TD catch. Unsolicited in-game highlights are outdated in a Sunday Ticket/Red Zone Channel era. Especially highlights of a slow tight end making a pedestrian play.

• Dennis Leary's (I had to look up his name because I had forgotten it) Ford truck commercial voiceovers "Time to punch work in the face" make me want to punch him in the face. The ad is saying to its viewers: "I know you're a stupid meathead, let us sell you a truck on that basis."

• Get the back door push from the Rams, lose the front door cover to the Jaguars. At least Blake Bortles got Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee involved. Allen Hurns did not record a catch on four targets before leaving with a concussion.

•Charcandrick West is no Spencer Ware. And Nick Foles isn't even Alex Smith who will get his job back next week and not throw to Travis Kelce.

• The Jaguars ran the ball better under new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Maybe Chris Ivory has value again.

• Ajayi managed 111 yards and a score against one of the league's top run defenses. If you weren't convinced two 200-yard games had signature significance, this game in this matchup should leave no doubt he's a top-five-ish back.

• There are many reasons to fire Todd Bowles, but foremost is his unwillingness to end the Ryan Fitzpatrick experiment. Fitzpatrick might bail him out with a knee injury, but it boggles the mind Bowles won't give Bryce Petty (or Christian Hackenberg) a look, especially after Fitzpatrick had already lost the job to Geno Smith before Smith got hurt.

• I loved DeVante Parker this year, but a no-show against the Jets after such an extended stretch of invisibility is damning. Parker has been dogged by a hamstring injury, so I was hoping he would get well over the bye, but Ryan Tannehill is still his quarterback, and the team belongs to Ajayi now in any event.

• I didn't watch much of the Steelers game, but I'm starting to think Ben Roethlisberger's home/road splits are a real thing. In three home games, he's averaged 8.5 YPA and thrown for 12 TDs with only two picks. In four road ones, the numbers are 6.3, five and five, respectively. Last year, the YPA was close and excellent (8.6 home, 8.2 road), but he had 16 TDs and seven picks at home, and five TDs with nine picks on the road. In 2014, he had 8.8 YPA, 23 TDs and four picks at home, 7.4. YPA, nine TDs and five picks on the road. Essentially Roethlisberger has been a more injury prone Drew Brees the last three years.

• I guess Terrance West is still the Ravens starting running back, but he's been so bad the last two games, I wouldn't be surprised if they turned to Kenneth Dixon (who also struggled Sunday) at some point soon.

• I'm sure Sean Payton will take credit for motivating Mark Ingram, but Payton actually doubled down on his benching for Tim Hightower (23 carries for 87 yards, 3.8 YPC against history's worst run defense.) Ingram in limited duty went 15-for-158 and a score, and caught a 13-yard TD pass.

•Michael Thomas has emerged as Brees' Marques Colston, so Brandin Cooks is merely on pace to duplicate, but not surpass last year's totals. Through eight games, Cooks is 62-41-596-5, a pace of 124-82-1,192-10. Last year, he went 129-84-1,138-9. For Cooks to take the leap, he would have needed 150 targets, and that's not happening.

• I started Colin Kaepernick in a couple places, and after seeing the first two quarters, thought he might have a game for the ages. He still finished with 398 yards and two TDs, but only 23 rushing yards.

•Andrew Luck's stats were pedestrian, but he sealed the win by scrambling to avoid what looked like a sure sack and delivering a strike to convert a first down and run out of the clock.

•Jordy Nelson went 7-for-94 and a touchdown, but on 13 targets. Once the per-play king of the NFL, he's turning into Davante Adams. Aaron Rogers put up good fantasy stats, but he got only 6.9 YPA at home against the Colts.

• Normally, I would have been heavily invested in seeing the Colts hold on for the upset, but as the cover was never in doubt, and I got knocked out in Survivor, I honestly didn't care either way. I suppose I was rooting for the Colts to hasten Mike McCarthy's departure from the league, but as that's not imminent, it was only a small consideration. Plus, I could do without Chuck Pagano too.

•Marcus Mariota's been great in fantasy of late, but against the spread not so much, with two picks, one of which was taken to the house, in addition to a fumble-six.

•DeMarco Murray had a pedestrian game, but he always gets his. A touchdown and seven catches to go along with 80 YFS in this case.

• I finally figured out what happened: Melvin Gordon is Todd Gurley and Gurley is Gordon. Honestly, I thought Gordon was terrible last year and early this season, but the last two games, he's looked like a different player, running with power and speed and almost never going down on first contact. I suppose that has to be the case when you rack up 261 yards from scrimmage.

•Devontae Booker sure looked better as C.J. Anderson's backup than as a full-time starter. Kapri Bibbs made a big play late in the game and could push him for the role.

• There's often that random back who gets three TDs in a given week. For Week 9, Latavius Murray was it.

• Don't bother starting quarterbacks or receivers against the Broncos.

•Russell Wilson looks healthy again. Oddly, he didn't after Seattle's bye week, but maybe the magic water hadn't yet kicked in. In any event, he's back to being a top-five QB. That means Doug Baldwin is again a top-15 WR.

•Jimmy Graham is now a top-five TE and you can flip a coin between him, Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen for No. 2. (A three-sided coin.) As Jeff Erickson pointed out on the SXM show today, you can throw in Tyler Eifert for good measure.

•Tyrod Taylor is a good quarterback. I realize Seattle's secondary isn't playing at the level it had in previous years, but Taylor made some amazing throws on the run on plays where most quarterbacks would have been sacked. Robert Woods had a great game – he could be a reliable possession receiver going forward. Remember it took Taylor about half a year to develop a rapport with Sammy Watkins in 2015.

• The Seahawks bizarrely ran the ball only 12 times, and three of those were by Wilson and one by Tyler Lockett. The backs combined for eight carries for 10 yards. C.J. Prosise was supposed to be more involved, but it was hard to tell from that meager workload, though he did have more snaps than Christine Michael.

•LeSean McCoy didn't get the short TD plunge, but handled 21 carries and looked healthy. Consider him a top-seven back again.