This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 10-6 last week and split the two games I liked most, the Bills and Chiefs.
This week, I especially like the Buccaneers, Jets, Lions, Ravens, Bills, Bears, Bengals and Redskins. I had the hardest time with 49ers/Falcons, Jaguars/Texans, Titans/Chiefs and Saints/Cardinals.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Rams +14.5 at Seahawks
This is where I set the line. Normally, I'd take the Rams who always play the Seahawks tough, and even more so after they got rid of the awful Jeff Fisher. But a new coach coming in on a short week and traveling to Seattle is a tough spot. Lay the wood.
Seahawks 34 - 3
SATURDAY NIGHT
Dolphins -2.5 at Jets
The Jets are bad, but the Dolphins are on the road without their starting quarterback and laying 2.5 points, to boot. Take New York.
Jets 17 - 16
EARLY GAMES
Lions +4.5 at Giants
I set this line at three as these are roughly equal teams, and in any event to the extent the Giants are better, Ben McAdoo will coach them down to Detroit's level. Take the points.
Giants 20 - 19
Eagles +6 at Ravens
This is where I set the line also. The Ravens aren't necessarily three points better on a neutral field, but their home field advantage is significant, and the Eagles haven't been good on the road. Lay the wood.
Ravens 24 - 16
Packers -6.5 at Bears
The Packers are on a nice run, but the Bears aren't a total doormat with Matt
I went 10-6 last week and split the two games I liked most, the Bills and Chiefs.
This week, I especially like the Buccaneers, Jets, Lions, Ravens, Bills, Bears, Bengals and Redskins. I had the hardest time with 49ers/Falcons, Jaguars/Texans, Titans/Chiefs and Saints/Cardinals.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Rams +14.5 at Seahawks
This is where I set the line. Normally, I'd take the Rams who always play the Seahawks tough, and even more so after they got rid of the awful Jeff Fisher. But a new coach coming in on a short week and traveling to Seattle is a tough spot. Lay the wood.
Seahawks 34 - 3
SATURDAY NIGHT
Dolphins -2.5 at Jets
The Jets are bad, but the Dolphins are on the road without their starting quarterback and laying 2.5 points, to boot. Take New York.
Jets 17 - 16
EARLY GAMES
Lions +4.5 at Giants
I set this line at three as these are roughly equal teams, and in any event to the extent the Giants are better, Ben McAdoo will coach them down to Detroit's level. Take the points.
Giants 20 - 19
Eagles +6 at Ravens
This is where I set the line also. The Ravens aren't necessarily three points better on a neutral field, but their home field advantage is significant, and the Eagles haven't been good on the road. Lay the wood.
Ravens 24 - 16
Packers -6.5 at Bears
The Packers are on a nice run, but the Bears aren't a total doormat with Matt Barkley playing well. I made this line 4.5, and this is too many on the road. Take the points.
Packers 24 - 20
Colts +4 at Vikings
I set this line at 3.5. The Colts were bad last week, but I think they can hang with a Vikings team that doesn't make big plays on offense. Take the points.
Vikings 20 - 17
Browns +10 at Bills
I made this line 13.5 - I guess I was sick of taking the Browns. On the other hand, I vastly overrated the Bills last week - for some reason I thought they could pass protect and run-block. But Robert Griffin is terrible, and I think the Bills take out some frustration on the Browns. Lay the wood.
Bills 37 - 16
Titans +5.5 at Chiefs
I went back and forth on this and eventually settled on Titans plus six because their defense isn't good, and the Chiefs had an extra three days to prepare. Andy Reid is great off bye weeks, so maybe the extra prep time will be the difference. Take Kansas City.
Chiefs 27 - 20
Jaguars +6 at Texans
I set this line at 5.5 but am already regretting it. My thought was to sell the Texans high off last week's win, as the Jaguars should be able to slow their offense and stay in the game. But I'm tired of giving away games with Jacksonville. Hold your nose and take the points.
Texans 17 - 16
Steelers -3.5 at Bengals
I set this line at 2.5. The Bengals are league average, A.J. Green could be back, and I'm not sold on the Steelers as being elite just yet. Take the points.
Bengals 27 - 26
LATE GAMES
Saints +2.5 at Cardinals
I made this line three. I actually think the Saints might be the better team, but Drew Brees struggles on the road, the Cardinals defense is good and the Cardinals are typically far better at home. Lay the wood.
Cardinals 26 - 23
49ers +13.5 at Falcons
This is exactly where I set the line. I was leaning Falcons, but with Julio Jones' status up in the air, I'll take the points.
Falcons 30 - 17
Patriots -3 at Broncos
I had the Pats at minus 2.5 as they're the better team, but without Rob Gronkowski, I expect New England to have trouble scoring against this secondary. Take the home dog.
Broncos 20 - 19
Raiders -3 at Chargers
This would be an easy call if Melvin Gordon and especially Joey Bosa were playing, but there's a good chance both miss the game. Even so, I'll take the home dog in a divisional game. Back the Chargers.
Raiders 24 - 23
SUNDAY NIGHT
Buccaneers +7 at Cowboys
Like the Giants, the Bucs are stout against the run, and I expect Jameis Winston to make some plays against a decent, but not spectacular Cowboys defense. Take the points.
Cowboys 24 - 20
MONDAY NIGHT
Panthers +4.5 at Redskins
I set this line at 6.5, as the Redskins are good at home, and the Panthers are a bit checked out as a team. Lay the wood.
Redskins 31 - 17
I went 10-6 in Week 14 to go 101-103-4 on the season. I'm 3-2 on best bets. I went 114-134-8 and 7-9-3 on best bets in 2015. From 1999-2015, I've gone 2,182-2,014 (52%), not including ties.
