This article is part of our NFL Reactions series.
Let's start with the good from this weekend's action, as no one wants to harp on the bad right away, unless you're this guy.
Fantasy owners who had David Johnson all year likely took home fantasy championships this week, as the Cardinals' running back rushed 28 times for 95 yards and three touchdowns, while also catching four of seven targets for 41 receiving yards. Johnson finished with more than 100 yards from scrimmage for the 15th consecutive game this season (an NFL record) and he scored his 20th touchdown (16 rushing, four receiving). The Cardinals haven't been nearly as good as many expected, but Johnson has somehow been better despite being a universal first-round pick in fantasy drafts. Not only did Johnson score his 20th touchdown, he also managed to eclipse 2,000 total yards from scrimmage, becoming the first player to reach both thresholds since LaDanian Tomlinson in 2006.
Speaking of high touchdown totals, LeGarrette Blount scored twice during the Patriots' 41-3 win over the Jets on Saturday, giving him a league-high 17 rushing TDs. Before the season, everyone jumped on the Dion Lewis train because of his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, and that optimism switched to James White after Lewis hurt his knee in preseason, but it turns out that Blount was the Patriots' running back to have. His dominance, particularly near the goal line, gave him enough fantasy value to be playable in PPR leagues despite catching seven passes all year. Blount's
Let's start with the good from this weekend's action, as no one wants to harp on the bad right away, unless you're this guy.
Fantasy owners who had David Johnson all year likely took home fantasy championships this week, as the Cardinals' running back rushed 28 times for 95 yards and three touchdowns, while also catching four of seven targets for 41 receiving yards. Johnson finished with more than 100 yards from scrimmage for the 15th consecutive game this season (an NFL record) and he scored his 20th touchdown (16 rushing, four receiving). The Cardinals haven't been nearly as good as many expected, but Johnson has somehow been better despite being a universal first-round pick in fantasy drafts. Not only did Johnson score his 20th touchdown, he also managed to eclipse 2,000 total yards from scrimmage, becoming the first player to reach both thresholds since LaDanian Tomlinson in 2006.
Speaking of high touchdown totals, LeGarrette Blount scored twice during the Patriots' 41-3 win over the Jets on Saturday, giving him a league-high 17 rushing TDs. Before the season, everyone jumped on the Dion Lewis train because of his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, and that optimism switched to James White after Lewis hurt his knee in preseason, but it turns out that Blount was the Patriots' running back to have. His dominance, particularly near the goal line, gave him enough fantasy value to be playable in PPR leagues despite catching seven passes all year. Blount's significant production follows a trend we've seen this year of running backs providing much more value than anticipated, while many receivers failed to live up to those expectations.
Five running backs had double-digit touchdowns last season, with Devonta Freeman, Adrian Peterson, DeAngelo Williams and Jeremy Hill tying for the league-lead with 11, while Todd Gurley had 10. However, seven backs have already reached 10 touchdowns this season, while two are at nine and four have reached eight. In fact, Blount, Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott (13), LeSean McCoy (13) and Latavius Murray (12) have already passed the 2015 high. Going back even further, we can see just how out of the (recent) ordinary this many backs scoring rushing touchdowns is:
2014: DeMarco Murray (13)
2013: Jamaal Charles (12), Eddie Lacy (11), Adrian Peterson (10)
2012: Alfred Morris (13), Adrian Peterson (12), Doug Martin (11)
2011: LeSean McCoy (17), Adrian Peterson (12)
2010: Adrian Peterson (12), Chris Johnson (11), Mike Tolbert (11, really!)
2009: Adrian Peterson (18), Chris Johnson (14), Frank Gore (10), Jonathan Stewart (10)
Understandably, upper-tier wide receiver touchdowns are down, going closer to the levels we saw before the passing boom began in 2012:
2016 (5): Jordy Nelson (14), Antonio Brown (12), Mike Evans (11), Odell Beckham (10), Davante Adams (10)
2015 (10): Brandon Marshall (14), Allen Robinson (14), Doug Baldwin (14), Odell Beckham (13), Eric Decker (12), DeAndre Hopkins (11), Antonio Brown (10), A.J. Green (10), Allen Hurns (10), Ted Ginn (10)
2014 (11): Dez Bryant (16), Antonio Brown (13), Jordy Nelson (13), Odell Beckham (12), Randall Cobb (12), Mike Evans (12), Demaryius Thomas (11), Torrey Smith (11), Jeremy Maclin (10), Alshon Jeffery (10), Mike Wallace (10)
2013 (7): Demaryius Thomas (14), Dez Bryant (13), Brandon Marshall (12), A.J. Green (11), Eric Decker (11), Larry Fitzgerald (10), Marvin Jones (10)
2012 (7): Eric Decker (13), Dez Bryant (12), Brandon Marshall (11), A.J. Green (11), Demaryius Thomas (10), Julio Jones (10), Victor Cruz (10)
2011 (1): Jordy Nelson (15)
2010 (3): Mike Wallace (10), Stevie Johnson (10), Jeremy Maclin (10)
2009 (2): Larry Fitzgerald (13), Brandon Marshall (10)
The rushing touchdowns scored by upper-tier running backs is leveling the playing field in PPR leagues, which will make draft time next season a bit tougher. Johnson and Le'Veon Bell will still be above the pack (as long as they start the season on time) but after that we'll likely see a number of different style of backs filling the rest.
Back to Week 16, but sticking with running backs, Jay Ajayi rushed 32 times for 206 yards and a touchdown Saturday against the Bills, his third game this season with at least 200 yards (and fourth with at least 100), a fairly impressive total for a player who also has six games with fewer than 50 yards and was a healthy inactive in Week 1. Ajayi has been incredibly inconsistent this season, as he only scored in three games when he didn't rush for at least 100 yards, and while some of that can be attributed to the plethora of injuries the Dolphins had along the offensive line, Ajayi probably needed to be more productive on a regular basis to vault himself up rankings for next year.
Speaking of next year, two quarterbacks who led their teams to surprising finishes could miss the beginning of the season, as both Derek Carr of the 12-3 Raiders and Marcus Mariota of the 8-7 Titans suffered season-ending broken fibulas. Both players are vital to their teams, not to mention fantasy owners, and you'd have to think that an injury that serious could affect their preparations for next season. Joining the two quarterbacks on the injured list was Seahawks wideout Tyler Lockett, who also suffered a gruesome leg injury. Lockett was coming off his best game of the season in Week 15 (seven catches on eight targets for 130 yards and a touchdown), but he was limited to just two catches for 38 yards before suffering the injury. The Seahawks have other weapons in the passing game, but Lockett's absence surely is a blow.
And finally, remember when Aaron Rodgers looked done? Well, that's firmly in the past, as the Packers' quarterback threw for 347 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for 13 yards and another score in a 38-25 win over the Vikings. Rodgers has thrown for multiple touchdowns in all but two games this season, including three games with at least four and four others with three. He's up to 36 passing touchdowns, plus an additional four on the ground, while his top receiver, Jordy Nelson, leads the league in touchdowns and is sixth in receiving yards, while Davante Adams is 44 yards away from 1,000. Rodgers was one of the top quarterbacks according to ADP before the season, and he's firmly living up to those expectations, unlike Cam Newton (top QB ADP), though he did at least help Greg Olsen become the first tight end in NFL history with three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons.
