This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
Seattle (+5) at Atlanta, 51.5 o/u – Saturday, 4:35 p.m. EST
Comments: The Seahawks had little difficulty in dispatching the Lions last week, and may have stumbled across the formula for handling the Falcons, even though they'll be playing three time zones away from home. Thomas Rawls brutalized Detroit's run defense, and now gets to face an Atlanta unit that gave up very similar numbers to the Motown crew – 104.5 rushing yards per game and a 4.5 YPC allowed, versus the Lions' 106.3 yards per game and 4.4 YPC allowed. The glaring defense was in their ability to protect the end zone, though. Detroit gave up a very respectable eight rushing TDs during the regular season, but the Falcons coughed up 15. If Rawls can continue being Beast Mode 2.0, not only will it keep the chains moving for Seattle, it'll keep Matt Ryan off the field. ... It's somewhat criminal that's there's even an MVP debate right now. Drew Brees edged Ryan out in passing yards, and Aaron Rodgers threw a couple more TDs, but nobody comes close to Matty Ice's 9.3 YPA (more than a full yard better than second place Tom Brady) and 117.1 QB rating. The Seahawks' pass defense is no longer elite, especially without Earl Thomas, and finished the regular season ninth in QB rating against (85.0) and 18th in YPA allowed. They did record 42 sacks (tied for third), so if they can get to Ryan they may be able
Seattle (+5) at Atlanta, 51.5 o/u – Saturday, 4:35 p.m. EST
Comments: The Seahawks had little difficulty in dispatching the Lions last week, and may have stumbled across the formula for handling the Falcons, even though they'll be playing three time zones away from home. Thomas Rawls brutalized Detroit's run defense, and now gets to face an Atlanta unit that gave up very similar numbers to the Motown crew – 104.5 rushing yards per game and a 4.5 YPC allowed, versus the Lions' 106.3 yards per game and 4.4 YPC allowed. The glaring defense was in their ability to protect the end zone, though. Detroit gave up a very respectable eight rushing TDs during the regular season, but the Falcons coughed up 15. If Rawls can continue being Beast Mode 2.0, not only will it keep the chains moving for Seattle, it'll keep Matt Ryan off the field. ... It's somewhat criminal that's there's even an MVP debate right now. Drew Brees edged Ryan out in passing yards, and Aaron Rodgers threw a couple more TDs, but nobody comes close to Matty Ice's 9.3 YPA (more than a full yard better than second place Tom Brady) and 117.1 QB rating. The Seahawks' pass defense is no longer elite, especially without Earl Thomas, and finished the regular season ninth in QB rating against (85.0) and 18th in YPA allowed. They did record 42 sacks (tied for third), so if they can get to Ryan they may be able to slow him down. Stopping him entirely seems like a pipe dream, though, especially considering the damage he did against them in Week 6 back in Seattle – 335 yards and three touchdowns. ... The bye week allowed Atlanta to get completely healthy. The Seahawks likewise have no significant names on the injury report.
Predictions: Rawls gallops for 110 yards and a score. Russell Wilson throws for 280 yards and TDs to Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham. Devonta Freeman manages 60 combined yards, while Tevin Coleman scores. Ryan throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns, two to Julio Jones (who hauls in 120 yards) and one to Justin Hardy. Falcons, 31-27
Houston (+16) at New England, 44.5 o/u – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST
Comments: Let's be honest here. The Texans won last week, and indeed won the entire AFC South, despite Brock Osweiler and not because of him. His first full season as an NFL starter was a $12 million boondoggle, and he'll reach $19 million albatross status in 2017. He's already faced the Patriots defense once this year in Foxboro, back in Week 3, and got shut out for his troubles. There's really no reason to think he'll be any better Saturday. ... New England won that first meeting 27-0, and that was withoutTom Brady, so if you think this spread is too large you may want to think again. Brady's survived the loss to Rob Gronkowski exceptionally well, throwing three TD passes in three of his last four games, with only the Broncos (in Denver) finding a way to keep Brady under wraps. The Texans' pass defense is good, ranking seventh during the regular season in QB rating against (84.3), but they aren't the Broncos. ... LeGarrette Blount was fighting some sort of bug this week and missed a couple of practices, but should suit up. Malcolm Mitchell (knee) is also questionable for the Pats. DeAndre Hopkins (knee) is questionable for the Texans, but should play.
Predictions: Lamar Miller rushes for 60 yards. Osweiler throws for 170 yards and gets picked off twice. Blount pounds out 60 yards and a TD, while Dion Lewis gains 80 combined yards and scores twice, once on the ground and once through the air. Brady throws for 260 yards and two more touchdowns, one each to Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan. Patriots, 38-3
Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Kansas City, 44 o/u – Sunday, 1:05 p.m. EST
Comments: Well, this doesn't bode well. 2017 is the 50th anniversary of the fabled Ice Bowl, but the Penguins and Scouts, err, I mean the Steelers and Chiefs might well be paying tribute to it Sunday if the forecasts are accurate. Modern NFL facilities are equipped with ways to keep the field from being frozen over, but that still doesn't mean conditions are going to be conducive to much passing offense. That actually might be good news for Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger's road woes are well known – his TD:INT away from home this season was 9:8, as compared to 20:5 at Heinz Field, with five of those home touchdowns coming against KC in Week 4 – but a game that primarily pits Le'Veon Bell against Spencer Ware is one the Steelers could win. The Chiefs also had a weak run defense during the regular season, finishing 26th with 121.1 rushing yards allowed per game, so using an offense Vince Lombardi would approve of could be Pittsburgh's best shot. ... Andy Reid teams just don't lose coming off a bye. Between Kansas City and Philadelphia, his squads are 16-2 in the regular season with an extra week to prepare, and the Eagles were 3-0 under him when they'd earned a first round bye. (Explain to me again why they thought getting rid of him for Chip Kelly was a good idea?) The Chiefs did only manage to score 14 points in that Week 4 blowout loss, but it was the rare game in which the defense didn't come up with any big plays. KC led the league with 33 takeaways and a plus-16 turnover differential, and in what could be a contest played under adverse conditions, their opportunistic ball-hawking could be the difference. ... The Chiefs report no significant injuries. Ladarius Green (concussion) is officially questionable, but seems unlikely to play after missing practice Wednesday and Thursday.
Predictions: Bell picks his way to 120 combined yards and a TD. Roethlisberger throws for 200 yards and a couple of untimely INTs. Ware gains only 50 yards. Alex Smith throws for 160 yards, but does find Jeremy Maclin for a score. Chiefs, 13-10
Green Bay (+4.5) at Dallas, 52.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:40 p.m. EST
Comments: Unless a game is decided on the last play, it's usually impossible to pinpoint the exact moment it's over, but that wasn't the case last week. When Randall Cobb hauled in that Hail Mary pass to make it 14-6 heading into the half, you could see in the slump of the Giants' shoulders that they were done. That's the kind of power Aaron Rodgers has right now, in the midst of one of the best streaks of his already Hall of Fame-worthy career. All it takes is yet another big play for the other team to break, and resign themselves to defeat. The Cowboys, however, present a different kind of challenge to the Packers than the all-defense Giants did. Their Week 6 win over Green Bay came before Rodgers caught fire, but it did set the bar for how efficient he'll need to be, as they piled up 30 points behind huge games from Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott, and did it without Dez Bryant on the field. Dallas' bend but don't break defense gave up just 19.1 points per game in the regular season, fifth in the league, and if Elliott runs roughshod again and keeps Rodgers on the sidelines for long stretches of time, he might need to be nearly perfect to keep pace. ... That big performance for Prescott – just 247 passing yards, but three TDs – was par for the course for opposition QBs against the Green Bay secondary this season. They finished the regular season 26th in QB rating against at 95.9, and that was with some late improvement once the unit got healthier. There's a big danger of a slow start for Dallas, though. The Cowboys have basically given their starters two weeks off, resting their key guys for most or all of Week 17 prior to last week's bye, so the offense might need a few series to get back in the flow of things. Against Rodgers, that could be deadly. It's one thing to build a lead and start chewing up the clock to try and beat the Packers. It's quite another to fall into an early hole and then have to try and out-score Rodgers for the rest of the game. ... The Cowboys' defense remains banged up, especially their front seven, and they lost some pass rush depth when Randy Gregory got re-suspended, but they will get Morris Claiborne back from his sports hernia. Jordy Nelson (ribs) is out for the Packers, taking away Rodgers' favorite target, while James Starks (concussion) will also miss the game.
Predictions: Ty Montgomery gains 60 yards, but Aaron Ripkowski vultures a short TD. Rodgers throws for 340 yards and touchdowns to Cobb, Jared Cook and Geronimo Allison. Elliott shows no rust, pounding out 130 yards and two scores. Prescott throws for 250 yards and TDs to Bryant, who tops 100 yards, and Cole Beasley. Cowboys, 34-31
Last week's record: 3-1, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 o/u
2016 regular season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2016 postseason record: 3-1, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 o/u
