With this article I mean to reflect on the results of the MFL10 drafts I've done this year – nine so far – as well as my general strategy toward the game.
If you aren't yet familiar, MFL10s are a 'best ball' format with a $10 buy in run by MyFantasyLeague.com – thus, the acronym MFL10. The drafts are a fun, low-stakes way to scratch your offseason fantasy football itch. MyFantasyLeague may offer more formats in the future, but for now the payout structure is $100 for first place, and a $10 MFL credit for second place. There also figure to be buy-in dollar variations of $25, $50, and $100, with accordingly escalated payouts. The format is PPR scoring in 12-team leagues, with the starting lineups QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/Flex/DST.
Particularly before the NFL Draft occurs and we know which rookies are playing for which teams, it's an interesting experiment on player speculation. To win, it takes a combination of sound roster construction, as well as correct projections regarding player role and player skill level.
For instance, before the draft last year, you were able to get Ezekiel Elliott in the second round, because at one point, for all we knew he could have been playing for the Browns instead of the Cowboys. If you took Elliott at that time, you correctly speculated on his outcome and profited hugely from acquiring him in that league.
As far as the broader strategy goes, all I can do is describe my own approach, which admittedly
With this article I mean to reflect on the results of the MFL10 drafts I've done this year – nine so far – as well as my general strategy toward the game.
If you aren't yet familiar, MFL10s are a 'best ball' format with a $10 buy in run by MyFantasyLeague.com – thus, the acronym MFL10. The drafts are a fun, low-stakes way to scratch your offseason fantasy football itch. MyFantasyLeague may offer more formats in the future, but for now the payout structure is $100 for first place, and a $10 MFL credit for second place. There also figure to be buy-in dollar variations of $25, $50, and $100, with accordingly escalated payouts. The format is PPR scoring in 12-team leagues, with the starting lineups QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/Flex/DST.
Particularly before the NFL Draft occurs and we know which rookies are playing for which teams, it's an interesting experiment on player speculation. To win, it takes a combination of sound roster construction, as well as correct projections regarding player role and player skill level.
For instance, before the draft last year, you were able to get Ezekiel Elliott in the second round, because at one point, for all we knew he could have been playing for the Browns instead of the Cowboys. If you took Elliott at that time, you correctly speculated on his outcome and profited hugely from acquiring him in that league.
As far as the broader strategy goes, all I can do is describe my own approach, which admittedly is mostly just based on intuition. I bought into six leagues last year, finishing first in one, second in two, third in one, fifth in one, and last in one. I swear I'm not lying – the last-place team was my 'hedge' lineup. Small sample, but I think the overall approach proved generally effective.
I tend to wait on quarterbacks in most drafts, but in all drafts I try to get three highly likely starters at the position. Plentiful as they are, quarterbacks are also the highest-scoring position, so winning a best-ball point format necessitates having among the highest point totals at the quarterback position. Considering the cheapness of the position, I think volume there is a cost-effective way to get points. Passing on a sixth running back to take a Sam Bradford or Brian Hoyer as your third quarterback might feel like a throwaway pick, but you're actually getting a guy who could lead your team in scoring at least a few weeks. Going with just two quarterbacks, meanwhile, leaves you in position to take a dud at the spot if one of your quarterbacks is hurt on a week the other under performs. Your team can survive such scenarios over 17 weeks, but it's best to minimize them.
The only other pseudo-rule I follow is a high standard at defense. I don't have a rule of three like at quarterback -- I almost always take two -- but I try to get one in the top tier (Seattle, Kansas City, Minnesota, Houston) along with one other defense I like. A similar thinking to my quarterback approach applies – defenses are the cheapest position in MFL10s, but avoiding a low point total at the position is a nice way to pad your floor. It doesn't cost much to do well at the position – I don't mind passing on a DeAndre Washington or Cole Beasley to get the Seahawks defense. Indeed, out of my nine drafts, I ended up with the Seahawks eight times.
Otherwise, I try to get three tight ends, and let the 12 remaining RB/WR spots split in some 5/7 or 6/6 fashion. Aside from Bell/Johnson/Elliott, I tend to wait at running back early on. LeSean McCoy and Jordan Howard are the primary exceptions. When I do try to fill out my running back roster, I try to target pass-catching backs with probable part-time roles. Guys like DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, and Shane Vereen have hit-or-miss production, but their pass-catching gives them useful week-to-week upside despite their minimal acquisition costs.
A few remaining thoughts on my results from last year:
1. I took Mike Evans in three of my six drafts last year, but so far have him in none of my nine MFL10s from this year. He's going almost a full round earlier, and I guess I'm not buying there. I know I'm definitely not buying him over Julio Jones, yet I've seen it happen. Part of my luck last year had to do with taking Evans while others chased DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson. I have to wonder if those people are the ones taking Evans over Julio this year.
2. Marcus Mariota was on five of my six teams last year, and five of my nine this year. He was going around the 10th round last year. Despite his uniquely strong start to his career and high week-to-week upside, he's going in a similar pick range this year – no more than a round higher in most cases I've seen. I'll keep buying.
3. Jordan Howard was on my first-place team last year, as a 15th-round pick. This year I've taken him five times – as early as 10th overall, and as late as 19th.
I'll list my remaining commentary on my nine MFL10 drafts within the list of drafted players below. The players are initially sorted by position, then times drafted. Most commentary focuses on players I own multiple shares of.
QB
Mariota, Marcus (5)
I invested heavily in Mariota last year, and he was a useful asset despite his season-ending injury. He's going higher this year, but still late enough that I'll enthusiastically buy in. His week-to-week upside is valuable in a best-ball format, and my three-QB rule helps in the event of injury.
Ryan, Matt (3)
Taken at picks 8.06, 8.07, and 8.07. In that range, Ryan is an ideal co-QB1 for me. I paired him with Mariota twice, and Jameis Winston once.
Bradford, Sam (2)
Taken at picks 15.06 and 17.03.
Glennon, Mike (2)
Taken at picks 17.12 and 18.02.
Hoyer, Brian (2)
Taken at picks 15.12 and 18.06. Hoyer arguably falls short of my 'highly likely starter' requirement, but I'd be surprised if he started fewer than 12 games this year.
Rivers, Philip (2)
Taken at picks 12.01 and 12.02.
Rodgers, Aaron (2)
Taken at picks 4.01 and 5.07.
Winston, Jameis (2)
Taken at picks 10.06 and 12.03. I rate Winston similarly to where I have Mariota, so perhaps I'll take on more shares of him in future drafts.
Brady, Tom (1)
Taken at pick 6.10.
Luck, Andrew (1)
Taken at pick 6.03.
Newton, Cam (1)
Taken at pick 8.01.
Prescott, Dak (1)
Taken at pick 10.03.
Smith, Alex (1)
Taken at pick 18.07.
Wentz, Carson (1)
Taken at pick 14.06. I will probably make a conscious effort to take on more Wentz shares going forward.
Wilson, Russell (1)
Taken at pick 7.11.
RB
Perine, Samaje (6)
Taken at picks 11.07, 12.10, 14.07, 15.06, 16.01, 17.12. As you can see, I'm a fan of Perine. I took him too early in the 11.07 instance, as that was before Perine's mediocre Combine, but I'm glad to have so many shares. Perine is a better prospect than players like former second-round picks Jeremy Hill and Montee Ball were, and I'd be surprised if he fell past the third round. If Perine goes in the third round or higher in the real draft, I think his MFL10 stock could go up to the tenth-round range.
Howard, Jordan (5)
Taken at picks 1.10, 1.11, 1.12, 2.01, and 2.07. Along with LeSean McCoy, Howard is my favorite pick in the late-first, early-second range. I'll need to resist picking him too much more in order to hedge for injury risk, but I'm completely sold on his skill set. I think he's a top-five running back in the NFL.
Montgomery, Ty (5)
Taken at picks 4.01, 4.06, 4.07, 5.06, and 5.11. I am a huge fan of Montgomery's skill set, and the PPR scoring offsets durability and workload concerns. I tend to acquire him as an RB2 while others are targeting the likes of Tevin Coleman, Christian McCaffrey, and Derrick Henry.
Charles, Jamaal (4)
Taken at picks 7.07, 8.03, 10.01, 11.12. The former two picks were too early, but I will probably add a couple more shares of Charles if he keeps falling into the double-digit rounds. I have no clue what his medical situation is, but if he's healthy, I remain confident that Charles is a starter in the NFL. Even if he declines physically, he'll still be a plus pass catcher with a YPC floor around 4.5. Again, that's if his knee isn't toast.
McNichols, Jeremy (4)
Taken at picks 17.11, 19.12, 20.06, and 20.07. McNichols had one of the best Combine showings among running backs, and he's a rare pass-catching talent. A scenario similar to Kenneth Dixon's rookie season makes sense to me, and I suspect McNichols is a good candidate to see his MFL10 stock rise after the draft.
Vereen, Shane (4)
Taken at picks 17.06, 17.07, 18.06, 20.03. Vereen is just a band-aid depth option, but at his current price I think he's a sound value after showing 60-reception upside in New York the last two years.
Washington, DeAndre (3)
Taken at picks 14.06, 15.10, and 16.10. A part-time back has a useful floor if he catches passes, and Washington is in an unsettled backfield that should have more snaps up for grabs in light of Latavius Murray's exit.
Burkhead, Rex (2)
Taken at picks 8.02 and 8.06. Who knows how the New England backfield will sort out, but I figured I should get a couple shares of Burkhead after he signed.
Richard, Jalen (2)
Taken at picks 13.10 and 14.01, Same reasoning as Washington.
Cook, Dalvin (1)
Taken at pick 3.03. Cook is a very good prospect still, but after his poor Combine I'm probably not going to pick him until after the draft. His general price presupposes a starting role, but there's a real chance he ends up in a committee if he slips toward the second round of the NFL draft.
Dixon, Kenneth (1)
Taken at pick 5.10, before the suspension announcement and Danny Woodhead signing. Sigh.
Freeman, Devonta (1)
Taken at pick 2.07. Freeman normally doesn't last so long, and as a result I normally don't end up taking him. I generally feel like last year was the best-case scenario for him, yet he tends to go at a price presuming an identical 2017.
Gordon, Melvin (1)
Taken at pick 1.12. LeSean McCoy and Devonta Freeman are my ideal backs to pair with Jordan Howard at the turn, but Gordon is also a viable pick.
Johnson, David (1)
Taken at pick 1.03. I'd love to get more shares of Johnson – Le'Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott, too – but I just haven't been getting high picks this year.
Lynch, Marshawn (1)
Taken at pick 10.02. If Lynch comes out of retirement, be it for Oakland or New England, anything later than the eighth round is a heist.
McCoy, LeSean (1)
Taken at pick 2.01. I'm a huge fan of McCoy and would likely pick up shares in upcoming drafts – I've tended to own a lot of him for about five years straight.
Murray, DeMarco (1)
Taken at pick 2.10. Murray is a durability and decline worry, but his skill as a pass catcher and defined role make him someone to occasionally target as a diversification measure at the very least.
Drake, Kenyan (1)
Ivory, Chris (1)
Johnson, Duke (1)
Lewis, Dion (1)
Powell, Bilal (1)
Rawls, Thomas (1)
Stewart, Jonathan (1)
Ware, Spencer (1)
Woodhead, Danny (1)
Zenner, Zach (1)
WR
Williams, Tyrell (5)
Taken at picks 5.12, 6.07, 7.03, 7.06, and 7.12. Obviously, I love Williams in the sixth and seventh-round ranges. This is a 6-foot-4, 200-pound wideout with excellent athleticism who totaled 1,059 yards and seven touchdowns on 8.9 yards per target in his age-24 season. Keenan Allen's return is a theoretical demotion for Williams, but I'm not convinced Allen is better.
Adams, Davante (3)
Taken at picks 3.06, 3.11, and 3.12. I'm not thrilled about taking Adams in this range, but I think he's a rock-solid WR2.
Coates, Sammie (3)
Taken at picks 19.06, 20.01, and 20.07. The guy had some big games before he broke his hand, so I don't mind gambling on Coates in the last two rounds.
Jones, Julio (3)
Taken at picks 1.06, 1.06, and 1.07. Jones is my No. 5-ranked player, so I'll almost always take him when he falls to six. Mike Evans was taken in two of the three instances I drafted Jones, which is just bonkers to me.
Jones, Marvin (3)
Taken at picks 8.10, 10.07, and 11.07. For a guy who had 854 yards on 94 targets while playing a bit gimpy in the second half, this strikes me as very cheap for Jones. Along with Adam Thielen, he's one of my favorite values at the position. They both have WR2 upside but go at a WR4 price.
Nelson, J.J. (3)
Taken at picks 14.01, 15.03, and 15.12. Larry Fitzgerald will be who he always is, but with Michael Floyd gone and John Brown struggling through sickle cell trait symptoms last year, there's room for Nelson to really grow in 2017. He was always productive at UAB in college, and with eight touchdowns on 45 career receptions, I'm eager to see what he does in his third season.
Snead, Willie (3)
Taken at picks 6.01, 6.01, and 6.07. I believe all of these picks were made after the Brandin Cooks trade. With 1,879 yards on 205 career targets and a probable promotion ahead, I think Snead is someone most of us will want a few shares of heading into this age-24 season.
Thielen, Adam (3)
Taken at picks 9.03, 9.10, and 11.11. Nothing really stands out about Thielen's skill set or prospect profile, but 967 yards on 92 targets last year has me convinced of Thielen's talent. I have no idea why he goes as late as he does, but I plan to keep buying as long as it's the case.
Thomas, Demaryius (3)
Taken at picks 3.07, 3.10, and 4.02. It says a lot about how high of a standard Thomas is held to when you call 90 catches for 1,083 yards and five touchdowns a disappointment, and I'm not going to shy from him as a strong WR2 after that marked the fifth straight year he caught 90 or more passes.
Watkins, Sammy (3)
Taken at picks 2.06, 3.06, and 3.07. I'm a huge fan of Watkins' talent, and in this range I'll always be eager to pick him. He's a top-grade WR2 with legitimate top-five upside at the position.
Enunwa, Quincy (2)
Taken at picks 13.03 and 14.03. Enunwa is big, athletic, and caught 58 passes for 857 yards and four touchdowns on 105 targets at age 24. With Brandon Marshall gone, Enunwa is a high-upside WR4 who I think could see his ADP rise a bit as the season gets closer.
Tate, Golden (2)
Taken at picks 4.07 and 4.10. With 90 or more catches each season in Detroit, Tate is an entirely solid, if modest-ceiling WR2 in MFL10s. I love him in the late fourth.
Wallace, Mike (2)
Taken at picks 11.12 and 13.06. I'm not particularly high on Wallace or the Baltimore offense, but he's all but locked into a role that makes him a WR4 at worst. I don't expect Wallace to average 8.7 YPT like he did last year, but an increase on his 117 targets is probable after Steve Smith's retirement. I will probably target him further.
Anderson, Robby (1)
Benjamin, Kelvin (1)
Britt, Kenny (1)
Bryant, Martavis (1)
Cooper, Amari (1)
Davis, Corey (1)
Ellington, Bruce (1)
Garcon, Pierre (1)
Green, A.J. (1)
Jackson, DeSean (1)
Landry, Jarvis (1)
Meredith, Cameron (1)
Nelson, Jordy (1)
Patterson, Cordarrelle (1)
Smith-Schuster, Juju (1)
Thomas, Michael (1)
TE
Olsen, Greg (4)
Taken at picks 5.03, 5.06, 5.12, 6.06. It appears Olsen is my favorite value at tight end, even though I tended to take him a bit higher than the ADP would predict. I don't necessarily expect that ADP to rise, but I'll keep buying at his current price. I'm not concerned about decline – even as Cam Newton struggled last year, Olsen totaled 80 catches for 1,073 yards and three touchdowns on 129 targets -- good for a YPT of 8.3, which is his second-best figure of his Carolina career.
Swoope, Erik (4)
Taken at picks 17.06, 19.10, 19.11, and 20.10. With Dwayne Allen gone, Swoope is the ideal TE3 lottery ticket. He totaled 297 yards and one touchdown on 22 targets last year.
Higbee, Tyler (3)
Taken at picks 12.07, 12.07, and 15.11. Higbee is a big, athletic tight end who I think should see a bunch of targets in a Sean McVay offense that lacks wide receiver talent.
Doyle, Jack (2)
Taken at picks 10.01 and 10.07. Doyle was very productive last year, averaging 7.8 YPT on 75 targets for 584 yards and five touchdowns. With Dwayne Allen gone, there's TE1 upside here at a cheap price.
Ebron, Eric (2)
Taken at picks 9.11 and 11.03. Ebron has mostly been a bust to this point, but he averaged 8.4 yards per target last year and just turned 24 years old. I think he pushes for 1,000 yards if he plays 16 games.
McDonald, Vance (2)
The Shanahan offense throws to the tight end often in the red zone, and McDonald is super cheap for someone with his athleticism. He did 8.7 yards per target last year and will almost certainly break out in 2017.
Bennett, Martellus (1)
Clay, Charles (1)
Cook, Jared (1)
Engram, Evan (1)
Graham, Jimmy (1)
Hooper, Austin (1)
Howard, O.J. (1)
Kelce, Travis (1)
Sims, Dion (1)
Walker, Delanie (1)
DEF/ST
Seattle Seahawks (8)
Minnesota Vikings (3)
Philadelphia Eagles (2)
Carolina Panthers (2)
Denver Broncos (1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1)
Kansas City Chiefs (1)
Los Angeles Rams (1)
Lastly, for one last bit of consideration, I've identified the following two lineups as my best and worst MFL10s to this point, respectively.
Best:
Worst:
