NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 12

Houston (+7) at Baltimore, 38.0 o/u – Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: I refuse to lower myself to making "savage" puns about the Texans QB situation, but Tom Savage actually managed to look competent last week against the Cards, topping a 7.0 YPA and completing over two-thirds of his passes. Doing the same against a Ravens defense that has two shutouts in its last three games will be a tall order, however. Granted, those shutouts came against Matt Moore and Brett Hundley, but hey, we're talking about Tom Savage here, not Tom Brady. It's a good thing Baltimore's defense has been so vicious too, because if any QB's play deserves an "uncivilized" description it's been Joe Flacco's.

The Skinny:
•2017 HOU offense: 26.7 PPG (6th), 128.5 rushing yds/gm (5th), 243.1 passing yds/gm (17th), 32 sacks allowed (T-26th), 19 turnovers (30th)
•2017 BAL offense: 21.3 PPG (T-17th), 114.6 rushing yds/gm (13th), 180.6 passing yds/gm (32nd), 22 sacks allowed (T-11th), 15 turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 HOU defense: 26.2 PPG allowed (30th), 92.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (7th), 268.6 passing yds/gm allowed (28th), 25 sacks (15th), 14 turnovers (T-14th)
•2017 BAL defense: 17.1 PPG allowed (3rd), 120.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (26th), 204.4 passing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 28 sacks (T-9th), 23 turnovers (T-1st)
•Flacco career stats versus HOU, six games: 4-2, 55.8 percent completion rate, 206.3 passing yds/gm, 7:6 TD:INT, 6.0 YPA, 72.8 QB rating
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: HOU, 31st against WR2s (plus 33.2 percent DVOA); BAL, second against WR1s (minus 44.9 percent DVOA), third against WR2s (minus 43.3 percent DVOA), 31st against TEs (plus 31.8 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: clear, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Lamar Miller picks up 70 combined yards. Savage throws for under 200 yards but does find C.J. Fiedorowicz for a TD. Alex Collins gains 80 yards. Flacco throws for 220 yards and a touchdown to Mike Wallace. Ravens, 16-7

Buffalo (+10) at Kansas City, 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Well, that went well. Nathan Peterman's five-INT debut has forced Sean McDermott to turn back to Tyrod Taylor as his starting QB, but fortunately for the Bills it didn't deal them a crippling blow in the AFC wild-card chase. They also get to face a Chiefs team that's suddenly hanging onto a division lead by its fingernails, having lost four of five since its 5-0 start. Kareem Hunt's disappearing act has a lot to do with that – after racking up seven runs of 20-plus yards in those first five games, he's managed only one in the last five.

The Skinny:
•2017 BUF offense: 20.8 PPG (19th), 117.7 rushing yds/gm (11th), 198.7 passing yds/gm (30th), 29 sacks allowed (24th), 13 turnovers (T-13th)
•2017 KC offense: 26.2 PPG (7th), 118.4 rushing yds/gm (10th), 267.4 passing yds/gm (8th), 25 sacks allowed (T-17th), seven turnovers (2nd)
•2017 BUF defense: 25.0 PPG allowed (23rd), 119.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (T-24th), 254.9 passing yds/gm allowed (21st), 15 sacks (T-29th), 18 turnovers (6th)
•2017 KC defense: 22.0 PPG allowed (14th), 129.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (29th), 263.9 passing yds/gm allowed (26th), 19 sacks (T-23rd), 14 turnovers (T-14th)
•Key injuries, BUF: WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee, out), WR Jordan Matthews (knee, questionable), TE Charles Clay (knee, questionable)
•Alex Smith career stats versus BUF, four games: 4-0, 65.2 percent completion rate, 214.8 passing yds/gm, 5:0 TD:INT, 7.7 YPA, 103.2 QB rating
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, 11 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: LeSean McCoy picks up 80 yards and a score. Taylor throws for 230 yards and runs in a touchdown. Hunt manages 70 yards and a TD, while Charcandrick West also catches a touchdown pass. Smith throws for 250 yards and a second TD to Tyreek Hill. Chiefs, 24-17

Tennessee at Indianapolis (+3), 45.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Sure, OK, Marcus Mariota nearly went full Peterman and threw four INTs last week. He also posted a 9.3 YPA against a tough Steelers defense, and while it's a bit of an "Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?" move to focus on that YPA, he won't have a better chance to turn those positive signs into big points than in a game against the Colts, whose threadbare secondary have coughed up a league-worst 8.3 YPA to opposition QBs. Seriously, name a Colts DB if you can. I'll wait.

The Skinny:
•2017 TEN offense: 22.2 PPG (15th), 117.5 rushing yds/gm (12th), 225.1 passing yds/gm (23rd), 25 sacks allowed (T-17th), 17 turnovers (T-26th)
•2017 IND offense: 17.9 PPG (25th), 95.9 rushing yds/gm (24th), 230.0 passing yds/gm (20th), 39 sacks allowed (32nd), 12 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 TEN defense: 25.3 PPG allowed (24th), 89.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (5th), 252.1 passing yds/gm allowed (19th), 17 sacks (T-26th), 14 turnovers (T-14th)
•2017 IND defense: 28.0 PPG allowed (32nd), 111.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (15th), 287.4 passing yds/gm allowed (31st), 19 sacks (T-23rd), 14 turnovers (T-14th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 10-1 IND, with TEN snapping an 11-game losing streak in Week 6. Average score IND 28-TEN 22, average margin of victory nine points.
•T.Y. Hilton career stats versus TEN, 11 games: 44 catches on 79 targets, 60.6 yards/gm, two TDs.
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: DeMarco Murray picks up 70 combined yards and a score, while Derrick Henry also runs for a touchdown. Mariota throws for 280 yards and two TDs to Delanie Walker and Corey Davis, who tops 100 yards. Frank Gore runs for 40 yards, but Marlon Mack produces 60 combined yards and a TD. Jacoby Brissett throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Chester Rogers. Titans, 31-17

Cleveland (+8.5) at Cincinnati, 38.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Browns have incredibly won only two of their last 37 games (yes, really: 0-10 this year, 1-15 in 2016, and they closed 2015 with a 1-10 stretch), so there's really no reason to think they'll win this one, but humor me here. Josh Gordon isn't eligible to be activated yet but he is practicing and supposedly looking good, which should create some optimism in the rest of the roster. Myles Garrett has given the pass rush some life, and the Bengals' o-line can't protect Andy Dalton for more than about a millisecond. Cinci's coming off a win in Denver, so maybe they're feeling cockier than a 4-6 team has any right to feel, even against a 2-35 squad. Hey, I've almost talked myself into this upset! Let's just check the head-to-head record between these AFC North rivals, and... oh. Right. Never mind.

The Skinny:
•2017 CLE offense: 15.0 PPG (32nd), 101.2 rushing yds/gm (23rd), 219.8 passing yds/gm (26th), 32 sacks allowed (T-26th), 28 turnovers (32nd)
•2017 CIN offense: 16.9 PPG (29th), 68.0 rushing yds/gm (32nd), 215.8 passing yds/gm (27th), 27 sacks allowed (22nd), 17 turnovers (T-26th)
•2017 CLE defense: 25.9 PPG allowed (T-27th), 91.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (6th), 233.8 passing yds/gm allowed (14th), 22 sacks (T-18th), 11 turnovers (T-25th)
•2017 CIN defense: 19.9 PPG allowed (T-10th), 122.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (27th), 218.6 passing yds/gm allowed (6th), 29 sacks (T-4th), 10 turnovers (T-27th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 CIN, with CIN winning six straight. Average score CIN 26-CLE 15, average margin of victory 19 points. The closest game during CIN's six-game winning streak was last year's 23-10 score, and their average margin of victory during the streak is 23 points.
•Andy Dalton career stats versus CLE, 13 games: 10-3, 64.3 percent completion rate, 213.8 passing yds/gm, 24:11 TD:INT, 7.3 YPA, 95.0 QB rating
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Duke Johnson leads the Browns backfield with 80 yards and a TD. DeShone Kizer throws for under 200 yards but does hit David Njoku for a score. Joe Mixon manages 60 combined yards. Dalton throws for 260 yards and TDs to A.J. Green and C.J. Uzomah. Bengals, 20-14

Tampa Bay (+9.5) at Atlanta, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Ryan Fitzpatrick gets another start for the Bucs, but he'll need plenty of Fitzmagic to keep pace with the surging Falcons, who have won three of their last four and put themselves right back in playoff contention. Incredibly, Julio Jones hasn't scored in any of those four games, but if that streak continues against a Tampa pass defense that couldn't contain Kenny Stills last week, it'll be a minor miracle.

The Skinny:
•2017 TB offense: 20.3 PPG (22nd), 79.8 rushing yds/gm (30th), 274.0 passing yds/gm (7th), 19 sacks allowed (10th), 14 turnovers (T-16th)
•2017 ATL offense: 23.1 PPG (13th), 113.7 rushing yds/gm (14th), 256.7 passing yds/gm (12th), 16 sacks allowed (T-7th), 12 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 TB defense: 22.8 PPG allowed (17th), 107.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (13th), 285.6 passing yds/gm allowed (30th), 15 sacks (T-29th), 19 turnovers (T-4th)
•2017 ATL defense: 21.0 PPG allowed (13th), 115.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 222.6 passing yds/gm allowed (7th), 29 sacks (T-4th), 10 turnovers (T-27th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 5-5, average score ATL 29-TB 25, average margin of victory 14 points. Those numbers are skewed by a 56-14 ATL victory in 2014 – the average score in the other nine games is ATL 26-TB 26, with an average margin of seven points.
•Key injuries, TB: QB Jameis Winston (shoulder, out), CB Vernon Hargreaves (hamstring, out), DE Robert Ayers (concussion, out); ATL: RB Devonta Freeman (concussion, out)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Doug Martin gains 60 combined yards and a receiving TD. Fitzpatrick throws for 240 yards and a second score to Mike Evans but gets picked off twice. Tevin Coleman gallops for 110 yards and a touchdown. Matt Ryan throws for 320 yards and three TDs, hitting Jones twice (with Julio hauling in 130 yards) and Taylor Gabriel once. Falcons, 34-17

Miami (+16.5) at New England, 48.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Jay Cutler remains out for Miami due to a concussion, and while Matt Moore was pretty awful in his last start against the Ravens, he may not have it much easier this time around against a Patriots defense that's held Matt Ryan, Derek Carr and Philip Rivers to a combined 28 points during their six-game winning streak. New England's receiving corps is a triage ward right now, but as long as Tom Brady is under center is doesn't matter much who he's throwing to.

The Skinny:
•2017 MIA offense: 15.7 PPG (31st), 80.4 rushing yds/gm (29th), 224.8 passing yds/gm (25th), 18 sacks allowed (9th), 17 turnovers (T-26th)
•2017 NE offense: 29.0 PPG (4th), 106.0 rushing yds/gm (16th), 318.4 passing yds/gm (1st), 23 sacks allowed (T-14th), five turnovers (1st)
•2017 MIA defense: 25.4 PPG allowed (25th), 109.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (14th), 239.6 passing yds/gm allowed (T-15th), 17 sacks (T-26th), eight turnovers (30th)
•2017 NE defense: 20.3 PPG allowed (12th), 119.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (T-24th), 293.2 passing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 17 sacks (T-26th), 13 turnovers (T-18th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 NE, average score NE 27-MIA 17, average margin of victory 12 points, NE has four wins by 21 or more points during that stretch.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: NE, 30th against WR1s (plus 30.0 percent DVOA); MIA, 29th against WR1s (plus 28.7 percent DVOA), 29th against WR2s (plus 29.1 percent DVOA), 32nd against other WRs (plus 36.0 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, 14 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Kenyan Drake leads the MIA backfield with 60 yards. Moore throws for 220 yards and a TD to Kenny Stills. Dion Lewis piles up 90 yards, but Rex Burkhead scores. Brady throws for 310 yards and three touchdowns, finding Brandin Cooks, Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola in the end zone. Patriots, 34-10

Chicago (+13.5) at Philadelphia, 44.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Mitchell Trubisky didn't produce much yardage last week against the Lions, but he did complete 60 percent of his passes for the second straight week, a nice sign that the rookie is finding his footing in the NFL. A road game against the Eagles should be a tough test for him, especially given what their defense just did do Dak Prescott, but that big divisional win for Philly has this one feeling decidedly like a trap game for the league leaders.

The Skinny:
•2017 CHI offense: 17.4 PPG (T-27th), 131.8 rushing yds/gm (5th), 188.0 passing yds/gm (31st), 25 sacks allowed (T-17th), 17 turnovers (T-26th)
•2017 PHI offense: 32.0 PPG (1st), 144.6 rushing yds/gm (2nd), 246.5 passing yds/gm (15th), 24 sacks allowed (16th), 10 turnovers (T-3rd)
•2017 CHI defense: 22.1 PPG allowed (15th), 106.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (12th), 231.6 passing yds/gm allowed (11th), 29 sacks (T-4th), 12 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 PHI defense: 18.8 PPG allowed (7th), 71.0 rushing yds/gm allowed (1st), 255.7 passing yds/gm allowed (22nd), 29 sacks (T-4th), 20 turnovers (3rd)
•Key injuries, CHI: WR Dontrelle Inman (groin, questionable), LB Danny Trevathan (calf, doubtful), TE Dion Sims (illness, questionable)
•Weather forecast: clear, 12 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jordan Howard gets held to 60 yards but does score. Trubisky throws for 210 yards and a TD to Adam Shaheen. Jay Ajayi leads the PHI backfield with 80 yards and a touchdown, but Corey Clement coughs up a fumble that Nick Kwiatkoski returns to the house. Carson Wentz saves the day, throwing for 280 yards and two second-half TDs to Alshon Jeffery. Eagles, 24-21

Carolina at N.Y. Jets (+4.5), 40.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: While the Saints' winning streak dominates the headlines, the Panthers have quietly been keeping pace by winning three straight before their bye to stay one game back in the NFC South. Cam Newton's been a terror on the ground, averaging nearly 70 rushing yards a game over his last five with two TDs, but his 6:6 TD:INT over that stretch isn't too exciting, especially considering that four of those touchdowns came against the hapless Dolphins secondary. The Jets are predictably fading after screwing up their chances of getting a pick near the top of the first round in next year's draft, losing four of their last five, but they've at least kept things close, not losing any of those games by more than one score.

The Skinny:
•2017 CAR offense: 21.3 PPG (T-17th), 127.6 rushing yds/gm (7th), 224.9 passing yds/gm (24th), 23 sacks allowed (T-14th), 16 turnovers (T-22nd)
•2017 NYJ offense: 20.1 PPG (23rd), 101.6 rushing yds/gm (21st), 227.3 passing yds/gm (22nd), 32 sacks allowed (T-26th), 16 turnovers (T-22nd)
•2017 CAR defense: 18.0 PPG allowed (5th), 80.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 213.9 passing yds/gm allowed (4th), 29 sacks (T-4th), nine turnovers (29th)
•2017 NYJ defense: 22.2 PPG allowed (16th), 117.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 240.4 passing yds/gm allowed (17th), 19 sacks (T-23rd), 17 turnovers (T-8th)
•Coaching records after bye weeks: Ron Rivera 2-4, Todd Bowles 2-0
•Josh McCown career stats versus CAR, four games: 0-4, 58.2 percent completion rate, 226.8 passing yds/gm, 5:7 TD:INT, 6.8 YPA, 69.5 QB rating
•Weather forecast: clear, 12 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Christian McCaffrey sets a new career high with 140 combined yards and adds a touchdown. Newton throws for 220 yards and a TD to Devin Funchess while running for 50 yards and a score of his own. Bilal Powell manages 50 yards. McCown throws for 240 yards and TDs to Robby Anderson and Chad Hansen. Panthers, 24-20

Seattle at San Francisco (+6.5), 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: You know how you can tell that the Seahawks are discombobulated right now? They've won their last three road games, but have lost two straight at home. Earl Thomas has returned to stiffen their banged-up secondary, but it's more the Legion of Boo-Boos right now with Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Shaquill Griffin all out of action. C.J. Beathard doesn't seem like the QB to take advantage, but the rookie has thrown for almost 600 yards over his last two games (582, to be precise) to keep Jimmy Garoppolo stuck on the bench. Beathard may have to be productive again, though. Since Week 4, the Seahawks' run defense is second in the league with a 3.2 yards per carry against.

The Skinny:
•2017 SEA offense: 24.2 PPG (T-9th), 104.2 rushing yds/gm (17th), 279.7 passing yds/gm (2nd), 26 sacks allowed (21st), 11 turnovers (6th)
•2017 SF offense: 17.4 PPG (T-27th), 101.5 rushing yds/gm (22nd), 247.4 passing yds/gm (14th), 32 sacks allowed (T-26th), 16 turnovers (T-22nd)
•2017 SEA defense: 19.9 PPG allowed (T-10th), 99.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (9th), 233.1 passing yds/gm allowed (13th), 26 sacks (14th), 16 turnovers (T-10th)
•2017 SF defense: 26.0 PPG allowed (29th), 133.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (31st), 258.3 passing yds/gm allowed (24th), 20 sacks (22nd), 12 turnovers (T-20th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 SEA (plus 1-0 in postseason), average score SEA 23-SF 11, average margin of victory 13 points. SF has scored 20 or more points only once during that stretch, last year's 25-23 loss.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: SEA, 32nd against WR2s (plus 35.9 percent DVOA), second against other WRs (minus 33.6 percent DVOA), second against RBs (minus 35.0 percent DVOA); SF, 26th against WR2s (plus 27.3 percent DVOA), second against TE2 (minus 30.5 percent DVOA), 31st against RBs (plus 33.6 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: overcast, 11 mph wind, 26 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: J.D. McKissic explodes for 100 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving. Russell Wilson throws for 270 yards and two more touchdowns, one to Doug Baldwin and one to Paul Richardson. Hyde rushes for 60 yards and a score. Beathard throws for 260 yards and a TD to Aldrick Robinson. Seahawks, 31-17

New Orleans (+2.5) at L.A. Rams, 53.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: The Saints defense fell back into old habits last week, but fortunately for them so did Drew Brees, who bailed them out late in an overtime victory over Washington. While the old man's TDs are down thanks to the dominant performances around him in the backfield, he's still on pace for almost 4,500 passing yards, is completing better than 70 percent of his tosses, and his 8.2 YPA would be his highest mark since 2011. The Rams will be stinging after getting roughed up last week in Minnesota and won't have Robert Woods available, but they might be catching New Orleans at the right time as both the Saints' starting cornerbacks are out of commission.

The Skinny:
•2017 NO offense: 30.2 PPG (3rd), 144.0 rushing yds/gm (3rd), 278.3 passing yds/gm (4th), 10 sacks allowed (T-1st), 11 turnovers (T-6th)
•2017 LAR offense: 30.3 PPG (2nd), 120.4 rushing yds/gm (9th), 265.6 passing yds/gm (9th), 15 sacks allowed (T-5th), 13 turnovers (T-13th)
•2017 NO defense: 19.6 PPG allowed (T-8th), 115.4 rushing yds/gm allowed (20th), 229.6 passing yds/gm allowed (10th), 27 sacks (T-12th), 13 turnovers (T-18th)
•2017 LAR defense: 18.6 PPG allowed (6th), 123.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (28th), 229.0 passing yds/gm allowed (9th), 28 sacks (T-9th), 19 turnovers (T-4th)
•Drew Brees career stats versus LAR, seven games: 3-4, 68.6 percent completion rate, 261.0 passing yds/gm, 13:12 TD:INT, 7.1 YPA, 86.2 QB rating.
•Weather forecast: partly cloudy, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Mark Ingram runs for 80 yards and a score, while Alvin Kamara adds 60 combined yards (his lowest total since Week 3) and a receiving TD. Brees throws for 260 yards and two more touchdowns to Michael Thomas and Brandon Coleman. Todd Gurley bangs out 110 combined yards and a TD. Jared Goff throws for 320 yards and three touchdowns of his own, finding Cooper Kupp twice and Tavin Austin once. Rams, 34-31

Jacksonville at Arizona (+5.5), 38.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: It's hard to take a team with Blake Bortles as its QB seriously as a Super Bowl contender, but the Jaguars' defense is absolutely an elite unit, allowing only 24 points total over their current four-game winning streak. They may be without Jalen Ramsey for this one due to a hand injury suffered in practice this week, however, which could open the door for Larry Fitzgerald to have another big game. Whether that, or a revenge game for Blaine Gabbert, is enough for the Cards to pull off an upset is the question.

The Skinny:
•2017 JAC offense: 24.5 PPG (8th), 160.6 rushing yds/gm (1st), 108.4 passing yds/gm (29th), 16 sacks allowed (T-7th), 12 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 ARI offense: 17.6 PPG (26th), 69.3 rushing yds/gm (31st), 277.5 passing yds/gm (5th), 28 sacks allowed (23rd), 16 turnovers (T-22nd)
•2017 JAC defense: 14.1 PPG allowed (1st), 113.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (16th), 188.4 passing yds/gm allowed (1st), 40 sacks (1st), 23 turnovers (T-1st)
•2017 ARI defense: 25.4 PPG allowed (T-25th), 101.3 rushing yds/gm allowed (10th), 257.7 passing yds/gm allowed (23rd), 24 sacks (T-16th), 11 turnovers (T-25th)
•ARI record since acquiring Adrian Peterson, five games: 2-0 when he runs for 130 yards or more, 0-3 when he runs for 30 yards or less.
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Leonard Fournette rumbles for 120 yards and a TD. Bortles throws for under 200 yards but hits Dede Westbrook for the rookie's first career touchdown. Peterson scrapes together 50 yards. Gabbert throws for 220 yards and a score to Larry Fitzgerald. Jaguars, 20-10

Denver (+5) at Oakland, 43.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: The Paxton Lynch Era is finally beginning for the Broncos as the team attempts to snap a six-game losing streak, and Vance Joseph couldn't have picked a better opponent for the second-year QB's coming-out party. The Raiders' defense has fallen apart, not that it was particularly together to begin with, and the unit's given up over 30 points a game over the last month, a stretch that includes matchups against such luminaries as Tyrod Taylor and Jay Cutler. Derek Carr has three 300-yard games in that span but only a 6:4 TD:INT and a 7.0 YPA, numbers that will have to improve if they're even going to play spoiler in the AFC playoff race, much less sneak back into the wild-card picture.

The Skinny:
•2017 DEN offense: 18.3 PPG (24th), 112.9 rushing yds/gm (15th), 237.0 passing yds/gm (18th), 31 sacks allowed (25th), 23 turnovers (31st)
•2017 OAK offense: 20.4 PPG (T-20th), 89.7 ruahing yds/gm (27th), 245.6 passing yds/gm (16th), 15 sacks allowed (T-5th), 15 turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 DEN defense: 25.9 PPG allowed (T-27th), 85.5 rushing yds/gm allowed (4th), 209.6 passing yds/gm allowed (3rd), 22 sacks (T-18th), seven turnovers (31st)
•2017 OAK defense: 24.7 PPG allowed (T-21st), 113.8 rushing yds/gm allowed (17th), 261.4 passing yds/gm allowed (25th), 14 sacks (T-31st), six turnovers (32nd)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 9-2 DEN, average score DEN 28-OAK 14, average margin of victory 16 points. Since Peyton Manning's heyday, though, the average score is DEN 18-OAK 14, with an average margin of nine points.
•Football Outsiders 2017 ranking versus receiver types: DEN, fourth against WR1s (minus 34.5 percent DVOA); OAK, 31st against WR1s (plus 40.2 percent DVOA), 30th against TEs (plus 27.8 percent DVOA)
•Weather forecast: overcast, 11 mph wind, 26 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Devontae Booker leads the DEN backfield with 110 combined yards and a TD, while C.J. Anderson also scores. Paxton is effective if not exactly exciting, throwing for 240 yards and a touchdown to Demaryius Thomas. Marshawn Lynch manages 40 yards. Carr throws for 210 yards and a touchdown to Jared Cook. Broncos, 24-16

Green Bay (+14) at Pittsburgh, 43.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The Packers are now 1-4 since Aaron Rodgers got hurt, and every time Brett Hundley teases being adequate enough to keep them in the NFC playoff hunt, he immediately takes a huge step back afterwards. A date in Heinz Field is far more likely to produce another step back than one of those teases. The Steelers defense has given up 15.2 points per game while winning five straight, and while with Joe Haden hurt they have been prone to giving up the occasional big play, Hundley's 2:7 TD:INT and 5.9 YPA are not a big-play recipe.

The Skinny:
•2017 GB offense: 20.4 PPG (T-20th), 102.4 rushing yds/gm (T-19th), 232.5 passing yds/gm (19th), 36 sacks allowed (31st), 14 turnovers (T-16th)
•2017 PIT offense: 22.7 PPG (14th), 102.4 rushing yds/gm (T-19th), 264.1 passing yds/gm (10th), 14 sacks allowed (4th), 13 turnovers (T-13th)
•2017 GB defense: 23.0 PPG allowed (18th), 105.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (11th), 250.2 passing yds/gm allowed (18th), 21 sacks (T-20th), 16 turnovers (T-10th)
•2017 PIT defense: 16.5 PPG allowed (2nd), 97.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (8th), 215.7 passing yds/gm allowed (5th), 34 sacks (2nd), 16 turnovers (T-10th)
•Ben Roethlisberger career stats versus GB, two games: 2-0, 60.8 percent completion rate, 335.0 passing yds/gm, 5:1 TD:INT, 9.1 YPA, 107.4 QB rating
•Weather forecast: clear, less than 10 mph wind, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jamaal Williams ekes out 40 yards. Hundley throws for under 200 yards and gets picked off three times. Le'Veon Bell piles up 140 combined yards and two rushing TDs. Roethlisberger throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns, two to Antonio Brown (who pulls down 120 yards) and one to Eli Rogers. Steelers, 38-3

Minnesota at Detroit (+3), 45.0 o/u – Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The Vikings' defense was dominant last week in shutting down the Rams, but it's had far less success away from home, allowing 24.3 PPG in three road games compared to 14.1 PPG in U.S. Bank Stadium. That doesn't bode well for their playoff push, as four of their next five games (including this one) are on the road. If Detroit can win this one, it will be just one game behind Minnesota for the NFC North lead with tiebreaker in hand, but the Lions need Matthew Stafford to stay hot. Since the team's Week 7 bye, he's completed 67.4 percent of his passes, averaging 333 yards a game with a 7:1 TD:INT.

The Skinny:
•2017 MIN offense: 24.1 PPG (11th), 123.3 rushing yds/gm (8th), 257.6 passing yds/gm (11th), 10 sacks allowed (1st), 10 turnovers (T-3rd)
•2017 DET offense: 27.1 PPG (5th), 80.8 rushing yds/gm (28th), 276.0 passing yds/gm (6th), 33 sacks allowed (30th), 12 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 MIN defense: 17.2 PPG allowed (4th), 77.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (2nd), 232.9 passing yds/gm allowed (12th), 27 sacks (T-12th), 12 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 DET defense: 23.4 PPG allowed (19th), 114.2 rushing yds/gm allowed (18th), 253.9 passing yds/gm allowed (20th), 21 sacks (T-20th), 19 turnovers (T-4th)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 6-5 DET, with the Lions winning three straight. Average score DET 19-MIN 18, average margin of victory seven points. No game in this rivarly has been decided by more than two scores since 2009.
•Stafford career stats versus MIN, 15 games: 8-7, 62.6 percent completion rate, 249.5 passing yds/gm, 21:6 TD:INT, 6.5 YPA, 89.4 QB rating
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Latavius Murray leads the MIN backfield with 80 yards and a score. Case Keenum throws for 250 yards and TDs to Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph. Ameer Abdullah manages 60 yards and a touchdown. Stafford throws for 310 yards and three TDs, finding Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay and TJ Jones in the end zone. Lions, 31-24

L.A. Chargers at Dallas (+2), 47.5 o/u – Thursday, 4:30 p.m. EST

The Story: The Chargers' defense certainly had fun during its scrimmage with freshman college QB Nathan Peterman on the bye week, but ... (puts hand to ear) hang on, I'm being told that Peterman is actually a professional football player and that the game counted. Really. Wow. Anyway, Chargers will have plenty of momentum coming into this tilt against an offense that's had more than its share of problems since Ezekiel Elliott played his last Get Out of Football Jail Free card, but the Cowboys may have some good news of their own if left tackle Tyron Smith can suit up. With the All Pro guarding Dak Prescott's blind side and keeping the running game humming, Dallas might start moving the ball consistently again, even if it can't stop the Bolts from doing the same.

The Skinny:
•2017 LAC offense: 22.1 PPG (16th), 94.4 rushing yds/gm (25th), 254.7 passing yds/gm (13th), 12 sacks allowed (3rd), 10 turnovers (T-3rd)
•2017 DAL offense: 24.2 PPG (T-9th), 140.4 rushing yds/gm (4th), 214.1 passing yds/gm (28th), 22 sacks allowed (T-11th), 14 turnovers (T-16th)
•2017 LAC defense: 19.6 PPG allowed (T-8th), 138.9 rushing yds/gm allowed (32nd), 227.9 passing yds/gm allowed (8th), 30 sacks (3rd), 17 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 DAL defense: 24.2 PPG allowed (20th), 115.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (21st), 239.6 passing yds/gm allowed (T-15th), 28 sacks (T-9th), 12 turnovers (T-20th)
•Key injuries, DAL: LT Tyron Smith (groin/back, questionable), LB Sean Lee (hamstring, out), LB Anthony Hitchens (groin, questionable)
•Weather forecast: indoors

The Scoop: Melvin Gordon runs for 70 yards, but Austin Ekeler produces 80 combined yards and a receiving TD. Philip Rivers throws for 270 yards and a second score to Hunter Henry. Alfred Morris bangs out 110 yards and a touchdown. Prescott throws for 220 yards and TDs to Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, while running in another score. Cowboys, 34-23

N.Y. Giants (+7) at Washington, 44.5 o/u – Thursday, 8:30 p.m. EST

The Story: Well, how about that. The Giants actually showed up last week, or at least the defense did, and while they did get a big assist from the wind, shutting down the Chiefs can't just be shrugged off. Of course, Eli Manning did nothing, so their problems are hardly solved, but at least they have a pulse. Washington is stuck with the opposite problem, as Kirk Cousins has the offense roaring but the defense can't hold any of the leads he hands them. Maybe if these two teams swapped defenses, one could be a threat to the Eagles and the other a threat to the Browns for the first overall pick.

The Skinny:
•2017 NYG offense: 16.2 PPG (30th), 92.0 rushing yds/gm (26th), 229.8 passing yds/gm (21st), 22 sacks allowed (T-11th), 12 turnovers (T-8th)
•2017 WAS offense: 23.8 PPG (12th), 102.6 rushing yds/gm (18th), 279.6 passing yds/gm (3rd), 25 sacks allowed (T-17th), 15 turnovers (T-19th)
•2017 NYG defense: 24.7 PPG allowed (T-21st), 132.7 rushing yds/gm allowed (30th), 271.3 passing yds/gm allowed (29th), 14 sacks (T-31st), 12 turnovers (T-20th)
•2017 WAS defense: 26.6 PPG allowed (31st), 114.6 rushing yds/gm allowed (19th), 264.1 passing yds/gm allowed (27th), 24 sacks (T-16th), 15 turnovers (13th)
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 7-3 NYG, average score NYG 25-WAS 17, average margin of victory 10 points. The three WAS wins have been by a combined nine points.
•Key injuries, NYG: WR Sterling Shepard (migraines, questionable), DE Olivier Vernon (shoulder, questionable), DT Damon Harrison (ankle, questionable), LB B.J. Goodson (ankle, out), LB Jonathan Casillas (neck, questionable); WAS: TE Jordan Reed (hamstring, out), RB Samaje Perine (finger, questionable), LB Zach Brown (Achilles, questionable)
•Weather forecast: clear, wind less than 10 mph, less than 10 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Orleans Darkwa bangs out 80 yards. Manning throws for 280 yards and TDs to Evan Engram and Roger Lewis but gets picked off twice. Perine rumbles for 60 yards and a score. Cousins throws for 260 yards and two touchdowns to Vernon Davis. Washington, 27-17

Last week's record: 8-6, 8-5-1 ATS, 4-10 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 98-62, 71-82-7 ATS, 73-84-3 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS