This article is part of our NFL Reactions series.
How much time are we given to be wrong about a player before they can prove us right? If we think a player is going to be great but they are awful for three games, are we considered "right" if he explodes in the fourth? If we tout a running back before the season that we think will be really good and he fails to rush for even 65 yards in the first four games, are we then right about him if scores a touchdown in the fifth (while rushing for 51 yards)? What if the streak of rushing for fewer than 70 yards lasts longer, say, six games? Eight? Ten? Do we get to take credit for being "right" about him if he rushes 23 times for 114 yards and a touchdown while also adding three catches on three targets for 51 receiving yards in a Week 12 win over the Browns after 10 poor-to-mediocre games?
If so, congratulations to everyone who was right on Joe Mixon!
The Bengals' backfield was crowded during training camp, with Jeremy Hill at the top of the depth chart and Giovani Bernard healthy after recovering from a torn ACL. The addition of Mixon, who was taken in the second-round of this year's draft after falling due to some off-the-field issues, only clouded the situation. Despite that, there was plenty of optimism about Mixon due to the perceived skills gap over the other two. Hill came in with 222, 223 and 222 carries
How much time are we given to be wrong about a player before they can prove us right? If we think a player is going to be great but they are awful for three games, are we considered "right" if he explodes in the fourth? If we tout a running back before the season that we think will be really good and he fails to rush for even 65 yards in the first four games, are we then right about him if scores a touchdown in the fifth (while rushing for 51 yards)? What if the streak of rushing for fewer than 70 yards lasts longer, say, six games? Eight? Ten? Do we get to take credit for being "right" about him if he rushes 23 times for 114 yards and a touchdown while also adding three catches on three targets for 51 receiving yards in a Week 12 win over the Browns after 10 poor-to-mediocre games?
If so, congratulations to everyone who was right on Joe Mixon!
The Bengals' backfield was crowded during training camp, with Jeremy Hill at the top of the depth chart and Giovani Bernard healthy after recovering from a torn ACL. The addition of Mixon, who was taken in the second-round of this year's draft after falling due to some off-the-field issues, only clouded the situation. Despite that, there was plenty of optimism about Mixon due to the perceived skills gap over the other two. Hill came in with 222, 223 and 222 carries in the previous three seasons, respectively, but it was his role that was likely to take the biggest hit with the addition of Mixon. Bernard was available to get carries himself, but he was always viewed more as a third-down, pass-catching back, so it was possible that Mixon could succeed anyway.
Hill turned out to be a useless fantasy player, never getting more than seven carries in the first eight games of the season before suffering an ankle injury that will likely end his season. And while Bernard was always viewed as the pass catcher of the group, he has caught more than three passes just once this season, including one or zero in five of the last six games. So, with Hill and Bernard struggling, Mixon should be succeeding, right? Well, he's at least gotten the touches, but it wasn't until Sunday that it all came together and he gave fantasy owners what they've been waiting for all season...literally all season. Mixon has actually been much more active in the passing game, catching at least three balls in seven games, and it finally looks like he'll get the run people were expecting much earlier this year.
Unfortunately, his Week 12 game will be against the Steelers, who have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game in standard scoring to running backs this season and seventh-fewest in PPR. And while it gets a little easier the following week against the Bears (15th-most points per game allowed in standard scoring, 13th in PPR), Week 14, an important one for fantasy playoffs, brings a trip to Minnesota to face a Vikings team that's allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs in standard scoring and the second-fewest in PPR.
The rookie running back conversation before the season revolved around Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook and Kareem Hunt, but they have all been greatly overshadowed lately by Alvin Kamara, who had another big game Sunday against the Rams. Kamara came into the week with five touchdowns in his last four games, including at least one in each, and he found the end zone again, becoming the first Saints rookie to score a touchdown in five consecutive games. Additionally, his five-game run ties him with the Jets' Robby Anderson for the longest active streak in the NFL. Kamara didn't stop there, as he scored again later to finish with a ridiculous stat line of five carries for 87 yards and a touchdown as well as six catches on six targets for 101 receiving yards and another score.
But it's not just the touchdowns that make Kamara so good. He's been doing so much damage with fairly limited touches, mostly due to the also-excellent play of Mark Ingram. While Ingram is on pace to rush for over 1,000 yards and score 10-plus touchdowns, Kamara is heading to become the only player in the last 25 years to average at least 8.0 yards per play on more than 100 touches. Kamara scored on a 74-yard run against the Rams, a play that helped him surpass 100 total yards for the fourth time in the last five weeks. And while Mixon may have a tough run of matchups coming up, Kamara will face the Panthers (ninth-fewest standard and PPR points allowed per game), Falcons (15th-fewest standard, 16th-fewest in PPR) and Jets (seventh-most standard and PPR).
Another "see, I told you he was great!" player who finally broke out Sunday was the Falcons' Julio Jones, who caught 12 of 15 targets for 253 yards and two touchdowns while also taking his lone rush for 15 yards. Jones is widely considered one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, and I'm not here to tell you you're wrong if you believe that. But I am here to point out that Jones has scored more than eight touchdowns in a season just once in his career. His 2015 season was one of the best of all time, at least yardage wise, as he caught 136 of 203 targets for 1,871 yards, the second-most receptions and second-most yards in a single season in league history. But all those catches and all those yards only produced eight touchdowns. Fourteen wide receivers and three tight ends had more receiving touchdowns that year. And not only that, Jones wasn't even the highest-scoring fantasy wideout that season (Antonio Brown beat him out in standard and PPR scoring).
But let's appreciate what Jones was able to accomplish Sunday. His 253 yards gave him his third career game with at least 250, a feat that's even more impressive when considering no other player has done it more than once. His yardage total was the most in an NFL game since Week 4 of the 2016 season when the Panthers allowed 300 receiving yards
to ... Julio Jones!
His first touchdown reception Sunday was on a pass from fellow wideout Mohamed Sanu, who is now an impressive six for six for 228 yards and three touchdowns in his career as a passer. Maybe more impressive, though not in a positive way, is that Jones' first touchdown reception Sunday meant that he had caught as many scoring passes from Sanu as from starting quarterback Matt Ryan, who had 15 passing touchdowns coming into Week 12. Ryan and Jones have been prolific yardage accumulators over the past few years, but the lack of touchdowns continues to be puzzling.
On the other end of the spectrum are Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, who linked up five times for 82 yards and two scores in Sunday's win over the Dolphins. Gronkowski is a bit of the anti-Jones in terms of getting in the end zone, as his 74 receiving touchdowns since entering the league are more than every other player, a ridiculous total given he's missed 25 games due to injuries. Gronkowski has now caught multiple touchdowns in a game 16 times, tying Randy Moss for the most in team history. Amazingly, Moss played only 52 games with the Patriots (Sunday was Gronkowski's 98th), and he had eight multi-touchdown games during the 2007 season alone. For further reference, Jones' two-touchdown performance Sunday was the ninth of his career, and first since Week 3 of the 2015 season.
