Golf Draft Kit: Themes to Consider for 2014-15

There are no guarantees in fantasy golf, no Tiger-Woods-in-2000 to make everything right in your world. But there are some themes to keep an eye on to point you in the right direction or, just as important, keep you from going down the wrong path.

POSITIVE TRENDS

Consistent Contenders Who Didn't Win

Of course, it's great if your guys win tournaments. But there are golfers who can contribute mightily to your bankroll by finishing in the top 10. And many golfers who contend will eventually learn how to take it to the next level and win. (And in this category and all others, we'll avoid the obvious guys - yes, Rory McIlroy led the Tour in top-10s. We'll try to identify more subtle, secondary options.)

Consider: Ryan Palmer, Graham DaLaet, Ryan Moore, Brendan Todd, Matt Every, Brian Harman

Winners on the Web.com Tour

Learning how to win is among the toughest feats in sports. So if golfers can win on the second-best Tour, that'll serve them well when they make it to the PGA Tour. In 2013 on the Web.com Tour, Chesson Hadley won twice, Brendan Todd won, Seung-Yul Noh won. They all won on the PGA Tour in 2014.

Consider: Derek Fathauer, Adam Hadwin, Carlos Ortiz

Drive for Show, Putt for Dough - or Maybe Not

We're not going to say that's an old wives tale, but have you looked at the putting leaders? Among those in the top 10 in strokes gained-putting last year were Aaron Baddeley, Greg Chalmers, Freddie Jacobson, Justin Leonard and Daniel Summerhays. No stat is a miracle cure-all to follow, but golfers who get on the green quickest tend to do the best. Hence, strokes gained-tee to green.

Consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Graham DeLaet, Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka, Shawn Stefani

Never Call in Sick

It sounds simple, but guys who play a lot give you more chances to cash. Of course, the top golfers don't play all that much, but putting that aside ...

Consider: Brian Harman, Justin Hicks, Morgan Hoffmann, Ben Martin, Charles Howell III

Falling Upward

Last season, the Tour instituted a wrap-around schedule. It was expected that most of the big names would bypass the half-dozen fall events, allowing for second- and third-tier pros to make some early climbs up the money list. Jimmy Walker, for one, took full advantage, winning the season-opening Frys.com Open and riding the wave all the way to the Tour Championship. So even if you don't draft until January, golfers who win fall events will qualify for the Masters and maybe other majors and WGC events. Webb Simpson and Harris English both scored their lone victories in fall. Even guys who don't win can accumulate a lot of cash, as well as points to soar in the world rankings.

Consider: Fall winners, strong finishers

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Injuries

Obvious, of course, but you have to stay on top of this. Be mindful not only of guys who are hurt, but injury prone golfers, those with a history. And we're not saying to avoid all these golfers, just proceed with caution, and don't overpay for them.

Consider: Tiger Woods, Jason Day, Tim Clark, Bud Cauley (recent shoulder surgery), Patrick Cantlay (back), Jason Dufner (neck)

Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes

It took Rory McIlroy more than a year to get comfortable after he switched to Nike equipment. Outside of the top names, it's hard to find out about equipment changes, so you have to be diligent, spend time on the Internet, on Twitter. Another change of note: caddies. Steve Williams helped Adam Scott get to the next level; now, they have parted ways. Will Scott be able to stay near the top?

Consider: Adam Scott

Worse Luck Next Year

Golfers who burst upon the scene, perhaps as rookies, often find the going difficult the next year. Sometimes things come too easy. Sometimes they have real money for the first time. Roberto Castro made the Tour Championship in 2013 with an out-of-nowhere arrival. After 2014, he doesn't have his card, he couldn't even keep it via the Web.com Tour finals. Now, a golfer doesn't have to completely fall off the map as Castro did; he just may take a step back. Two years ago, Billy Horschel broke through. Then he largely had a horrid 2014 until the very end of the season. Again, don't necessarily avoid these golfers, just don't overpay.

Consider: Russell Henley, Kevin Stadler, Will MacKenzie

Bad years

Bad years happen for a reason. Guys lose their games overnight. David Duval was great, then he wasn't. Nick Watney was pretty darn good, now he's not. Don't get caught up bidding for big names who had bad years thinking they are "due" to rebound.

Consider: Phil Mickelson, Hunter Mahan, Luke Donald, Bo Van Pelt and, to a lesser extent, Brandt Snedeker

Out-of-Nowhere Winners

Just because a guy wins, it doesn't mean it's going to happen again. Sure, everyone on Tour is a world-class golfer, but some guys have no shot at winning until they put together the best four days of their life, never to have it happen again. Take Derek Ernst. He won the Wells Fargo in 2013. He played 13 more tournaments that year, never finishing in the top 40. This past year, he missed 16 of 28 cuts with zero top-25s. Luckiest winner in many a year.

Consider: Steven Bowditch, Matt Jones, Camilo Villegas