This article is part of our The Daily Puck series.
Goalies are vital to fantasy success. Whatever the format, your goaltending is going to have a significant impact on your results. Over the past two nights, two performances have stood out as prime examples of how difficult it can be to evaluate a goalie matchup on any given night.
Devan Dubnyk checked all the boxes on Tuesday as a strong play. He had posted three consecutive shutouts and was hosting an underwhelming Buffalo offense. In a similar setup, Carey Price hosted Vancouver on Wednesday. The Canucks had lost five consecutive games and were stuck in cement offensively. In Tuesday's daily contests, I was hesitant to endorse Dubnyk because of Buffalo's potential to score two goals on 18 shots and cut into Dubnyk's final point total. Price carried the same concerns Wednesday, but with just three games on the schedule, he was a clear lineup lock based on upside.
As it turned out, Dubnyk flopped and Price posted a 42-game shutout. However, the important takeaway was the difference in shot volume, which is often overlooked. Jonathan Quick comes to mind. He had five wins last season with at least two goals allowed and 22 or fewer saves, which is hardly a strong return on his typical hefty salary. In daily contests, you're better off allowing four goals and making 38 saves in a win.
Obviously, in seasonal leagues including GAA, there is more to consider. But just remember, in daily contests, the best approach isn't always chasing the two-point shutout bonus in what appears to be a lopsided matchup. This is especially true when assembling your lineups for big tournaments.
Featured Matchups
Blues (PP: 17, PK: 5) at Stars (PP: 22, PK: 27), 8:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Jake Allen (4-2-2, 2.22, .910), Antti Niemi (2-1-1, 3.65, .893)
Key Injuries:Cody Eakin (knee), Ales Hemsky (hip), Mattias Janmark (knee), Patrick Sharp (concussion), Alex Pietrangelo (leg)
Nothing beats a Central Division showdown, but these two 2015-16 powerhouses are still looking to find their way this year. St. Louis has gone 2-2-2 since opening the campaign with three straight wins, and Dallas is mired in a three-game losing streak and hasn't put together consecutive wins yet. Continuing, Jamie Benn (five points) and John Klingberg (four) are struggling, and the Stars' roster is missing a number of key players from last season. Similarly, the Blues haven't received much offensive punch behind Vladimir Tarasenko's team-high nine points.
The lack of offense from both has St. Louis ranked 28th in scoring (2.2 goals per game) and Dallas tied for 26th (2.22). However, the CorsiFor percentages at five-on-five are markedly different with the Blues owning a sixth-ranked 52.9, whereas Dallas sports a 23rd-ranked 47.5 CF%. St. Louis also has a stout penalty kill (89.7 percent) compared to Dallas (73.5). Still, with both teams struggling to score, this game might not yield the fantasy results it would have a year ago. Or perhaps, the divisional matchup is just what the doctor ordered to kick-start a couple quiet offenses.
Predators (PP: 2, PK: 29) at Coyotes (PP: 27, PK: 25), 10:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Pekka Rinne (2-4-1, 2.89, .914), Louis Domingue (2-5-0, 3.95, .887)
Key Injuries:Martin Hanzal (lower body), Tobias Rieder (lower body), Mike Smith (lower body), Michael Stone (upper body), Mike Fisher (upper body),
Fantasy owners had been waiting for the Predators' offense to hit stride, and Nashville delivered Tuesday with five goals and multi-point efforts from Filip Forsberg, James Neal, Ryan Johansen and Craig Smith. Still, the Preds own the 27th-ranked 46.5 CorsiFor percentage at five-on-five thus far. Arizona boasts plenty of fantasy appeal, too, but like Nashville, a number of the Coyotes' go-to scorers have been disappointing out of the gate. Despite six helpers, Max Domi is still looking for his first goal of the campaign, and Anthony Duclair has collected a single assist thus far. Other youngsters, Christian Dvorak and Dylan Strome, have hardly had an impact, either.
However, the real fantasy allure here is the poor goaltending and poor defenses, which should lead to plenty of offensive opportunities. Arizona has allowed the most goals per game in the league (3.89), and Nashville the sixth most (3.22). Of goalies with 3,000 minutes of five-on-five ice time through the past two seasons, Pekka Rinne owns the worst save percentage (.921), and Domingue has been shelled this season to the tune of a .887 SV% and 3.95 GAA. This contest has the makings of a track meet.
Penguins (PP: 3, PK: 21) at Kings (PP: 20, PK: 26), 10:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Marc-Andre Fleury (6-2-1, 3.09, .909), Peter Budaj (4-3-0, 2.37, .900)
Key Injuries:Marian Gaborik (foot), Brayden McNabb (upper body), Teddy Purcell (illness), Jonathan Quick (groin), Jeff Zatkoff (lower body), Derrick Pouliot (undisclosed), Conor Sheary (eye)
The defending champions are 4-0 since Sidney Crosby returned and also got Kris Letang and Matt Murray back in the lineup Wednesday. This will be a telling game for both teams. The Penguins are in the midst of the California swing and have the Sharks up next in another Stanley Cup rematch on Saturday. The Kings are reeling along a three-game losing streak, but even worse, Los Angeles has failed to score a single goal during the skid.
With the fantasy fortunes of Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin dwindling, the Kings draw the red-hot Penguins, and Pittsburgh has scored 17 goals over its past four games. Peter Budaj was yanked from his most recent outing, and Jack Campbell's only career start was over three years ago in October 2013. However, there is potential for both a letdown from Pittsburgh and a rebound from Los Angeles, which is why it'll be an important outing for both clubs.
Other Matchups
Maple Leafs (PP: 7, PK: 18) at Sabres (PP: 6, PK: 11), 7:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Frederik Andersen (3-2-3, 3.46, .891), Robin Lehner (3-2-1, 2.34, .921)
Key Injuries:Zach Bogosian (knee), Jack Eichel (ankle), Hudson Fasching (groin), Evander Kane (ribs),
Toronto leads the league in shots per game (34.3) but has slowed down in the goal column of late with just eight tallies over the past four games. On the flip side, Buffalo has won three consecutive games with just two goals allowed. This has the makings of a low-scoring game, especially with both Frederik Andersen and Robin Lehner playing well recently.
Flyers (PP: 4, PK: 24) at Islanders (PP: 26, PK: 15), 7:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Steve Mason (2-4-1, 3.46, .878), Jaroslav Halak (2-3-0, 3.15, .898)
Key Injuries:Mikhail Grabovski (concussion), Ryan Pulock (lower body), Michael Del Zotto (lower body), Scott Laughton (knee), Michael Raffl (abdomen)
After a comeback win in overtime over the Red Wings on Wednesday, look for the Flyers to get tangled up in another high-scoring game against the Islanders on Thursday. New York currently ranks 15th in the Eastern Conference, and head coach Jack Capuano continues to pull names out of a hat to play with John Tavares. Shane Prince has received the latest bump to the top line, and he's a potential low-priced flier in daily contests.
Oilers (PP: 20, PK: 2) at Rangers (PP: 9, PK: 16), 7:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Cam Talbot (7-2-1, 2.14, .932), Henrik Lundqvist (5-3-0, 2.14, .917)
Key Injuries:Brandon Davidson (undisclosed), Mark Fayne (undisclosed), Andrew Ference (hip)
New York has been an offensive juggernaut fuelled by a well-balanced attack, whereas Edmonton is led by Art Ross-hopeful Connor McDavid. Additionally, Cam Talbot will be starting at Madison Square Garden for the first time since being dealt to Edmonton from the Rangers. Talbot is also looking to end the Oilers' two-game losing streak, but this sets up as a daunting road game for Edmonton.
Jets (PP: 25, PK: 20) at Capitals (PP: 19, PK: 16), 7:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Connor Hellebuyck (2-3-0, 2.63, .914), Braden Holtby (4-2-1, 2.13, .925)
Key Injuries:Bryan Little (lower body), Shawn Matthias (lower body), Tyler Myers (lower body), Drew Stafford (upper body), Mark Stuart (upper body)
Home after a four-game road trip, the Capitals host the Jets in what is actually the second leg of a home-and-home series. Washington has rattled off three consecutive wins and boast a 6-2-1 record and have allowed just 2.0 goals per game, which is tied for second fewest in the league. Winnipeg has a tall task ahead Thursday, as the Capitals seem locked in for another run at the Presidents Trophy. At 26, Marcus Johansson is off to the best start of his career and has five goals and two assists over his past three games. Hit the sell-high button.
Canucks (PP: 29, PK: 12) at Senators (PP: 23, PK: 19), 7:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Jacob Markstrom (3-1-1, 2.35, .913), Craig Anderson (6-1-0, 2.24, .929)
Key Injuries:Andrew Hammond (lower body), Clarke MacArthur (concussion), Mark Stone (upper body)
The Canucks were tough-luck losers in Montreal on Wednesday, and their losing streak extended to six games. During the winless stretch, Vancouver has scored just seven goals, too. Ottawa, on the other hand, enters with wins in consecutive games and has benefited from Craig Anderson's return. He's stopped 69 of 70 shots over the past two games and has a track record of putting together blistering hot stretches.
Bruins (PP: 30, PK: 7) at Lightning (PP: 5, PK: 2), 7:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Tuukka Rask (5-0-0, 1.20, .961), Ben Bishop (4-3-0, 3.30, .891)
Key Injuries:David Backes (elbow), Anton Khudobin (upper body), Kevan Miller (hand), Frank Vatrano (foot), Jonathan Drouin (head)
Boston is 4-4 over its past eight games with wins in each outing they allowed two or fewer goals, whereas they allowed 18 tallies over their four losses. Tampa Bay is coming off a 6-1 win Tuesday, which pulled them to 3-3 during a six-game road trip. Home ice should prove to be a big boost for the Bolts, as Ben Bishop posted a 66-22-9 record with a .924 save percentage and six shutouts at Amalie Arena in his first three years with Tampa.
Devils (PP: 12, PK: 8) at Panthers (PP: 24, PK: 22), 7:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Cory Schneider (4-2-1, 1.86, .941), Roberto Luongo (3-4-0, 2.30, .912)
Key Injuries:Nick Bjugstad (hand), Jonathan Huberdeau (lower body), Jussi Jokinen (knee), Jon Merrill (finger)
Cory Schneider is 4-2-1 with a .941 save percentage and a 1.86 GAA, and the Devils will look to play low-scoring games and hope he continues to steal wins. Taylor Hall (seven points) and Damon Severson (six) are the top offensive contributors for the 25th-ranked offense (2.25 goals per game). Florida has lost six of its past eight games, but like the Devils, the Panthers have allowed just 2.4 goals and 26.8 shots per game this year. This doesn't set up as a friendly fantasy matchup.
Avalanche (PP: 14, PK: 23) at Blackhawks (PP: 8, PK:30 ), 8:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Semyon Varlamov (2-4-0, 3.18, .900), Corey Crawford (4-3-1, 2.26, .926)
Key Injuries:Trevor van Riemsdyk (upper body)
Chicago is the second-highest scoring team in the league (3.5 goals per game) and has won six of its past eight games. The Blackhawks have also battened down the hatches of late and allowed just three goals over their past three outings. Artem Anisimov is the surprise scoring leader but owns an unsustainable 35.0 shooting percentage and 114.0 PDO. It's time to sell high. Semyon Varlamov has been inconsistent and owns a .900 save percentage and 3.18 GAA through his six starts, so Calvin Pickard's an interesting fantasy piece who should see more starts going forward if Varlamov continues to underwhelm.
Flames (PP: 28, PK: 28) at Sharks (PP: 13, PK: 10), 10:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Brian Elliott (3-5-0, 3.12, .889), Martin Jones (5-4-0, 2.26, .914)
Key Injuries:Ladislav Smid (neck)
After allowing the second most goals per road game last year (3.24), Calgary has surrendered 3.55 per game and 16 over five away tilts to start 2016-17. Looking back at last season's numbers isn't always sound analysis for projecting ahead, but Calgary's best offensive players are inexperienced, and it has shown over a prolonged period. Additionally, San Jose is deep and fast. Load up your Sharks on Thursday.
Recommended Pickup
Calvin Pickard, G, COL - Since entering the league during the 2014-15 season, Pickard ranks second to only Carey Price in five-on-five save percentage (.940) among goalies with at least 1,250 minutes played. With Semyon Varlamov starting the campaign with a 2-4 record, a .900 save percentage and a 3.18 GAA, Pickard should begin to see more work sooner than later. As long as you're selective with the teams you plug him in against, Pickard should prove to be a solid spot starter in deeper leagues. In shallower settings, he's a great streaming option in favorable matchups.
