NASCAR Barometer: Harvick’s Unsurprising Victory

Kevin Harvick didn't take the lead in Sunday's Good Sam 500 until after the race's halfway mark, but he ended up leading the most laps and narrowly held off Carl Edwards for the win by a fraction of a second. The victory was Harvick's eighth at Phoenix, where he has dominated throughout his career. He entered the weekend as the favorite with good reason, and it paid dividends to those who bought into that status. The No. 4 Chevrolet was quick in practice but stumbled slightly in qualifying before pulling it all together when it mattered the most.

Joe Gibbs Racing continued its run of good form in 2016 by having its drivers take three out of the four top finishes. While other teams have added victories in the early races, Gibbs continues to field the cars that fight for the victory every week. Fantasy players' expectations shouldn't change this week at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California, either. Along with Gibbs, Hendrick Motorsports and Stewart Haas Racing remain the fantasy favorites with Penske Racing starting to make inroads on the leaders. This week's Auto Club Speedway presents no reason to believe anything significantly different will alter that pecking order.

UPGRADE

Kevin Harvick – Harvick was once again the master of Phoenix International Raceway. The Stewart Haas Racing driver proved that he's the best at this track again by leading 139 of the 313 laps in Sunday's race, holding off the charging Carl Edwards in the final feet to score the win in the closest finish in Phoenix history. While the overtime victory wasn't his easiest, Harvick was still the car to beat Sunday. The 2014 Sprint Cup champion won at Fontana in 2011 and has three top-five finishes in the last five races at the track, but he's already a confident contender in the Chase for the Sprint Cup in 2016 with Sunday's win.

Carl Edwards – Edwards was agonizingly close to scoring the win in Phoenix. He lost to Harvick by just a fraction of a second but has to be encouraged by what was a wonderful weekend for the team. Edwards was fast throughout practice each time out in Phoenix and raced Harvick to the line in one of the most exciting finishes in recent memory. His hopes will be extremely high for next Sunday's race at Auto Club Speedway where he has been one of the best. His lone win at the California oval came in 2008, but he has only finished outside of the top 10 there once since. Edwards should be on every fantasy player's radar this week.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – Earnhardt continued his run of good form in Phoenix last week when he was consistently inside the top-five drivers throughout Sunday's race distance. He won at the track in the fall of 2015 and came up just short this spring with a fifth-place finish. Still, he proved that he's in contention for the win just about every week by picking up his third top-10 finish out of just four races so far this season. Earnhardt hasn't won at Fontana, but he has improved his record at the track recently. He scored three top-10 finishes in his last four visits and should be worthy of fantasy consideration again this week.

Kyle Busch – Busch led 75 laps in Sunday's Good Sam 500 but yet again didn't have the car he needed to challenge for the win in the final laps. Busch and Joe Gibbs Racing have been the class of the field so far in 2016, but the defending champion has yet to visit Victory Lane in the Sprint Cup. That elusive win can't be too far away, however. Busch has three Fontana victories in his career, including his last two races there. He missed the 2015 edition of the Auto Club 400 due to injury but he should be one of the favorites this week.

Austin Dillon – Yet again Dillon found himself among the top finishers Sunday. The third-year driver has developed into a mature racer and his form is the best it's been to date in the series. He finished inside the top five two weeks ago in Las Vegas and backed up that performance with a top-10 in Phoenix. He may not have led any laps, but he's now consistently finishing races at the sharp end of the field. Dillon is a driver just starting to bloom, and fantasy players can expect even more as he continues to grow. Dillon has 11th- and 16th-place finishes in his two prior visits to Fontana in Sprint Cup machinery, and he should be expected to contend for yet another top 10.

DOWNGRADE

Ryan Newman – Newman has a respectable record at Phoenix, but Sunday's race wasn't anything to be proud of. The No. 31 lost a tire early in the running and smacked the wall. Damage from that contact forced Newman to the garage for extensive repairs, ruining any hopes he had for a top finish and putting him last in the running order when the day was done. Newman has only finished outside of the top 10 once in his last six visits to Auto Club Speedway, but the team will have to analyze and correct the mistakes that led it to such a disappointing outing in Phoenix. Newman needs to move forward from disappointment, but Richard Childress Racing remains behind the frontrunners.

Paul Menard – Menard has been relatively quiet for the 2016 races so far. The Richard Childress Racing driver typically is at his best in the early portion of each season but has yet to come alive. Menard was one of many tire failure victims in Phoenix, and his day ended against the wall. The failure forced a 38th-place finish out of 39 competitors, which is his worst finish so far this season. Despite the trouble, Menard has three straight top-10 finishes at Fontana. One wonders whether he'll have the fortitude to bounce back so quickly, however. Fantasy players should keep an eye on him through practice this week, but bail quickly if Menard doesn't show significant pace.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Stenhouse may be the driver making the most of Roush Fenway Racing's winter changes, but his progress was stunted in Phoenix. The team shuffled positions during the winter and focused on chassis development for the new rules package ahead of the 2016 season. Those moves appear to be paying dividends, too, but a blown front tire stymied his chances for a decent finish in Phoenix. While his practices showed promise, his finish did not. Stenhouse has yet to land a top-10 finish in Fontana, but the way he has performed early this year lends credibility to the belief that he's capable of topping his best track finish of 15th this week in California.

Clint Bowyer – Any hopes Bowyer had of winning a race in his interim season with HScott Motorsports have to be wishful thinking at this point. It may be too early to throw in the towel, but Bowyer hasn't shown promise so far. The former Michael Waltrip Racing driver has been well behind the pace of the leaders in the early races this season, and any hope of him being competitive enough to challenge for a top-10 — let alone a potential win — are a distant. Bowyer hasn't finished inside the top 10 at Fontana since 2011 with Richard Childress Racing. That's a bad omen considering his equipment may not even be up to the standards of last year's Michael Waltrip Racing.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Ryan Blaney – Blaney may be a rookie with a team not guaranteed a starting position each week, but he continues to outperform some of the regulars in the series. He scored his second consecutive top-10 finish in Phoenix and is already being touted as a third official entry for Penske Racing in 2017. Blaney is arguably the most talented rookie in Sprint Cup this season, and his racing hasn't disappointed. This week will be his first at Fontana in the Sprint Cup, but if his recent results are anything to go on, fantasy players should have some confidence. He may not be a top choice this week, but he's definitely capable of scoring a win in his first full Sprint Cup season.