Mound Musings: Something Called “Rhythm”

This is a column I have contemplated writing for several weeks, and so I really hope readers find it helpful. In this day of extreme analytics, I think we can lose sight of the human side of playing baseball – specifically the art of pitching in the game. Quite correctly we evaluate pitchers based on stuff – a combination of repertoire, velocity and movement – and command of that stuff. Most of that can be converted into numbers, albeit with things like fielding and even good or bad luck impacting those numbers. So how do we explain good scores in those categories not always resulting in superior performance? I think the best explanation is something called "rhythm."

For the purposes of defining some of this thing called "rhythm," I will focus on a handful of elite or near elite pitchers, including one specifically who has all the requisite components, but – having never achieved optimal rhythm – has yet to climb into the elite ranking. We want to identify the road ahead for Shohei Ohtani. 

The Elite: This is a short list. Elite is just that, a combination of skills that makes the pitcher better than the rest, or at least capable of being better than the rest. To be considered, the pitcher must have exceptional command – not just control – of a minimum of three, but typically at least four, pitches. Further, he needs mid/upper 90s or higher velocity and superior movement on that full arsenal of pitches. It sounds easy enough, but it takes a lot to make the grade in all categories. Keeping in mind this is a bit subjective, let's take a look at my elite short list:

• Jacob deGrom (Mets) – He defines the full package. He routinely touches triple digits with a fastball that dances. His breaking pitches are devastating. And, he can throw any pitch in this extensive arsenal in any count and never miss the black. There just aren't any chinks in his armor, and he is completely in rhythm.
• Shane Bieber (Indians) – Bieber came to the majors with command as close as I have seen to that of Greg Maddux. He had good, but not great, stuff then, with good velocity on his fastball, but secondary pitches that didn't always have enough movement. All he has done since is steadily improve his stuff.
• Gerrit Cole (Yankees) – He and Bieber are probably in a virtual dead heat. I think his stuff is still slightly better than Bieber's, but his command isn't quite in that category. One big plus for Cole is his approach. He is the prototypical workhorse, and if anyone is capable of pitching 300 innings, it might be him.
• Corbin Burnes (Brewers) – I'll admit I'm a bit skittish including him here already, but when you go down the checklist, he ticks all the boxes. He screamed talent coming in, then struggled in transition and initially flopped. Now he has adjusted, and we're talking 49 strikeouts with zero walks in 29 innings. C'mon.
• Yu Darvish (Padres) – Darvish has had to work his way back onto this list. He was here from 2012 to 2016, but injuries sapped his stuff, his command and most certainly his rhythm. Now healthy, and back in stride, he can confidently throw just about anything in his repertoire and hitters rarely have an answer.

That's the current list (IMHO). The list just happens to include five pitchers, but that is not a static number. There could be more or less. It all depends on qualifying. That said, there are obviously pitchers in the next tier. One of them (or more) are the near elite and could jump onto the list at some point. Time, performance, and rhythm, will tell.

Because I know you'll ask, here is a quick look at my near elite group in no particular order. Trevor Bauer in Los Angeles, Jack Flaherty in St. Louis, and Tyler Glasnow in Tampa Bay are right on the edge. Then we have veterans like Aaron Nola (Phillies), Max Scherzer (Nationals), Brandon Woodruff (Brewers), Walker Buehler (Dodgers), Lucas Giolito (White Sox), and a couple kids who are the newest members of the hopefuls list like Julio Urias (Dodgers) and Sandy Alcantara (Marlins). And, I'll round it out with a couple honorable mentions. Justin Verlander is 40-plus years old, but he could still be here at age 50, so he is being considered for lifetime membership. And, Noah Syndergaard is coming back from Tommy John surgery but likely will have a spot when he's back to full health and in rhythm. Hmmm. There's that word again. Then there's Stephen Strasburg, who is virtually the East Coast version of Ohtani.

The Ohtani Factor: And now we come to Ohtani. Going down the checklist, he has the elite stuff including triple digit velocity, movement, especially on his trademark splitter that has to be seen to be believed, and it's just one of six to eight pitches (or variations) that make up an incredibly deep repertoire. Then there's that command thing. Right now, you never really know what to expect. He has displayed excellent command in the past. Unfortunately, for the most part, it's the distant past these days, and that's where rhythm jumps into the equation. He is literally more consistent command away from being a card-carrying member of the elite list, and when he achieves "rhythm" he'll be there.

For a pitcher, rhythm equates to almost every aspect of life. I have lived it. It's all about your routine. Like my own routine. On game days, early to bed and early to rise, usually between 6 and 7 a.m., breakfast was oatmeal with fruit, toast, coffee and juice. Like every day, some time on the bike, then a shower. I preferred pitching at night because I was very fond of an afternoon nap. I didn't eat or drink anything before or during the game besides ice water. In fact, one of my nicknames was "Iceman," which I became pretty fond of. The day after a game, I slept in a bit later, there was the bike, and more rest for my arm. Subsequent days would include a side session at about 75 percent effort, some stairs for the all-important legs, and then later in the week some long toss and leisurely shagging balls in the outfield during BP. That is just a tiny sample of the routine that all pointed to rhythm on the mound.

I don't know Ohtani's routine. It doesn't really matter because every individual's daily regimen is different. But, I can almost guarantee he has one. However, his has been marred by long- and short-term injuries that have disrupted his routine and directly impacted the goal of attaining rhythm.

He missed most of 2017 after undergoing ankle surgery while still pitching for the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan. A sprained UCL cost him much of his first season with the Angels leading to Tommy John surgery in October 2018. He was limited to hitting only for 2019 as he rehabbed, and then there was the pandemic debacle of 2020. He took the mound a couple times, but he clearly wasn't ready, and he went back to just DHing while the "routine" stopped, started, paused, stopped and restarted. Almost every pitcher coming back from TJ surgery needs two or three months, or about a dozen or more starts, every five or six days to get back in rhythm, and that assumes a regular routine. Even this season, Ohtani started a game on April 4 and then sat out for 16 days dealing with a blister. He finally pitched again on April 20 and then most recently on April 26 where he struggled with command early before settling in. Rhythm. It's all about rhythm.

Are you seeing the picture? I am reasonably certain his elbow is sound. The blister issues are likely to be resolved fairly soon, and hopefully COVID won't rear its ugly head again and interfere. Ohtani needs a stretch of maybe 10 to 12 starts, one every five or six days on a consistent basis to establish his rhythm. If it happens, and I think it will, he could approach his astronomical ceiling as soon as later this year. I want to be on that train, but you have to be on board before it leaves the station.

Folks, constantly searching for the Ohtani's is what we try to do here in the Musings. You won't often find one like him – he is truly a generational talent – but there are always guys with huge upside out there tossing hints that they are just a little rhythm away.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• White Sox prospect Michael Kopech isn't in the top tiers of starting pitchers yet, but he is definitely tossing those hints. They started him out in the bullpen where they could more easily monitor his workload, but he has forced his way into the rotation. He just needs experience and a bit better command to get there.
• Another guy making a big splash is the Marlins Trevor Rogers. I liked a lot of what I saw from him, but I will admit I didn't quite expect the performance he has shown. He's on the short list to watch again as soon as I get a chance. I'm pretty confident he's for real, but want to see if he is actually this real.
• Former Cy Young award winner Corey Kluber finally logged his first win for the Yankees. He has clearly been lacking the rhythm of his best days, but he is getting consistent work, and it's starting to show. I don't think we will see his best anytime soon, but he may be rounding into a useful fantasy option.
• Have I mentioned how I hate shoulder injuries? Atlanta's Mike Soroka was just getting past the Achilles injury he suffered last season, but then this spring his shoulder started barking. There haven't been any official setbacks, but progress has been slow, and he is now expected to be out until at least mid-June.
• Since we featured Ohtani in this edition of Mound Musings, here's another fun fact. When he started on the mound against Texas, he became the first pitcher to start a game while leading the league in home runs since 1921. Maybe you've heard of the last guy to do it. His name was Babe Ruth.

Endgame Odyssey:

It appears we finally have a changing of the guard in closing duties for the Royals. He's still going to have to improve his command, but Josh Staumont is getting the ninth inning while Greg Holland is the primary set-up guy. We have seen a dramatic uptick in velocity with improved movement from Kenley Jansen. He is very tough to hit these days although his command can be a bit spotty. I do wish they would back off the calls before the ninth inning. The Twins have certainly been a disappointment so far this year, and Alex Colome has been a major contributor to their funk. Not surprisingly, we will now see more of Taylor Rogers in the ninth inning. He was probably a better option anyway. The ninth inning has seemingly become a question mark in Cincinnati where, while Amir Garrett has closer stuff, he has struggled mightily with command. I lean to the veteran Sean Doolittle who poses questions of his own. He is getting older and has a long injury history, so durability could be his biggest challenge. On the plus side, he has been here before, and the Reds will get everything he has every time out. The cupboard is pretty bare in Colorado. Daniel Bard isn't getting it done, but there aren't many viable options. Maybe Carlos Estevez or perhaps even Robert Stephenson? Stay tuned, but don't be too hopeful.