Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The minor league season extends through September. But as discussed before, the big clubs are only allowed two extra slots for the final month of the season. As a result, many top-flight prospects will be forced to stay in the minors instead of getting their first taste of action at the highest level. Nevertheless, there have been plenty of phenoms who have helped their cause in 2021 even if they didn't make it to the bigs. In the final Minor League Barometer of the year, we'll outline which up-and-comers made the biggest moves and improved their stock. As always, this list is not exhaustive. Similarly, we will discuss some neophytes who have really lost some of their prospect luster along the way.

UPGRADE

Anthony Volpe, SS, NYY – Perhaps no prospect improved his outlook as much as Volpe, though fellow Yankees minor leaguer Oswald Peraza also enjoyed a breakout campaign. But it's Volpe who appears to have ascended to virtually the top of the prospect rankings. Only 20, he's slashing .293/.420/.602 with 24 home runs, 82 RBI and two steals in 98 games between Low-A and High-A.  Volpe has an advanced, patient approach at the dish with a mastery of the strike zone well beyond his years. He also has that power/speed combination fantasy participants seek. Add in a type of Derek Jeter-esque way in which Volpe carries himself along with the ability to hit for average, and it's clear why he's now considered among the best in baseball.

Zac Veen, OF, COL – Still a teenager, Veen showed off his speed throughout 2021 at Low-A, his first season in the minors. As the season wore on, his power came around as did his average.  After 101 contests, Veen's stat line is impressive hitting .303/.402/.509 with 15 homers, 74 RBI and 36 steals. He's not afraid to take a walk and still has room to fill out and mature, which will enhance his power stroke. Charlie Blackmon is in the twilight of his career; Veen's emergence should help ease the pain.

Cade Cavalli, P, WAS – The flamethrower from Oklahoma is already on his third different level this year. Even though Cavalli's first two starts at Triple-A have not gone so well, he's otherwise been dominant. He started the season at High-A, where he fanned 71 batters in only 40.2 innings en route to a 1.77 ERA. That resulted in a quick bump to Double-A, where Cavalli was almost as impressive posting a 2.79 ERA and 80:35 K:BB across 58 frames. The opposition has also hit a putrid .191 against this season. As long as Cavalli can keep the free passes down, he profiles as a frontline starter with a debut sometime in 2022.

Shane Baz, P, TB – The rich get richer, as Baz has gone from an afterthought to one of MLB's top pitching prospects. The Chris Archer deal with Pittsburgh still looks like one of the worst trades for the Pirates in league history, and I don't believe that's hyperbole. Baz posted a 49:2 K:BB to start the season at Double-A (yes, you read that correctly). Some of his numbers were just as good - if not better - following a promotion to Triple-A where he compiled a 1.80 ERA and 54:10 K:BB in 40 innings. The only question for Baz will be how the Rays choose to utilize him, though it's been nice to see Tampa Bay let young pitchers like Shane McClanahan and Luis Patino take the training wheels off a bit this season.

Jordan Walker, 3B, STL – An honorable mention for this last spot goes to Jose Miranda of the Twins, but Walker gets the nod here considering he's been even better than advertised coming out of the gate scalding at Low-A to begin the year. Only 18 when the season started, he hit .374/.475/.687 with six home runs and 21 RBI over 27 games resulting in a quick bump to the next level. At High-A and turning 19, Walker has not been overmatched slashing .295/.349/.440 with four homers, 18 RBI and 12 steals through 47 contests. He's only scratching the surface of his potential in the St. Louis organization.

CHECK STATUS

Dustin Harris, 1B, TEX – Harris has done nothing but hit since being drafted in the 11th round out of junior college in 2019 having hit over .300 at every level since. To begin 2021, he posted a .301/.389/.483 line with 10 home runs, 53 RBI and 20 steals from 73 games. Deservedly so, Harris was promoted to High-A and has been tearing the cover off the ball going .372/.415/.646 with eight homers, 25 RBI and four steals across 29 outings. The numbers jump off the page and it looks like the Rangers found a diamond in the rough.

Joey Wiemer, OF, MIL – The same can be said for Wiemer and the Brew Crew, though he was a fourth round selection in the 2020 Draft. The toolsy outfielder collected 13 home runs and 22 steals in 75 games at Low-A and has looked even better at High-A since being promoted. Over 24 contests there, Wiemer is slashing a robust .374/.427/.736 with nine homers, 22 RBI and six steals.  Double-A in 2022 will be the litmus test as to where his future path will take him.

Kyle Harrison, P, SF – A third-round pick in 2020, Harrison just turned 20 but his strikeout numbers are eye-popping having racked up 149 strikeouts in 93.2 innings at Low-A. He'll have to watch his walk totals as he ascends to the higher levels, but his swing-and-miss stuff is evident. Harrison also keeps the ball down, having allowed only three homers through 22 starts.  He's now arguably the top pitching prospect in the Giants system.

DOWNGRADE

Jeter Downs, 2B, BOS – A lot has gone right for the surprising Red Sox this season, including stellar minor league performances from Triston Casas and Nick Yorke along with the huge upside for Blaze Jordan. Downs has been a huge disappointment hitting only .181/.262/.313 over 83 games while plate discipline has been a chief concern with 114 strikeouts compared to 32 walks. By contrast, he's averaged far fewer than a strikeout per game prior to this season during his brief professional career. Downs still produced double-digit home runs and thefts, but it's clear his inability to make consistent contact is hampering his overall production. He remains a firm part of Boston's future plans, but his stock has taken a hit this year.

MacKenzie Gore, P, SD – An obvious one, though Gore is beginning to ramp himself back up as the season comes to a close. He endured a dismal first few starts to begin the campaign at Triple-A while battling blister issues. Then there were rumors Gore was suffering from a case of the "yips", though those appear to have been unfounded. He worked at the alternate site for a bit, and has since slowly attempted to make his way back to the upper levels. The Padres have been rather quiet on what's been ailing Gore other than the previously reported blister issues, but certainly something doesn't appear right for a hurler who was once considered the top pitching prospect in all of baseball.

Nate Pearson, P, TOR – Pearson was another prominent hurler with plenty of hype coming into the season that never materialized. He's battled injury issues throughout his brief time in the minors, and that included a groin ailment which prevented him from making the big league roster out of spring training. In fact, it stopped Pearson from really seeing the majors until this month and has only pitched sparingly for a team in contention for a Wildcard spot. His value would take a hit if he stays in the bullpen, though the Jays still view him as a starter long-term. Pearson will likely get another crack at the starting rotation next season, but it remains to be seen if he can stay healthy.

Nolan Jones, 3B, CLE – Jones suffered a horrific start to 2021 hitting .189 in May with just one home run for Triple-A Columbus and never really recovered. He finally appeared to hit his groove as August closed going .429 for the last two weeks of the month. Unfortunately, Jones subsequently injured his ankle and has not appeared in a game since. It could even spell the end of the year having entered the season as one of the elite third base prospects, but never managed to see the bigs and still hasn't hit 20 homers in any campaign.