This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
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Houston Astros at Washington Nationals 7:05 pm EDT
The Nationals are 1-10 in their last 11 games at home and the Astros are on a 10-game winning streak. They are also 13-2 in their last 15 games with a run differential of 4.7 – 1.8 (2.9). The Nationals have been terrible at home with a 4-13 record and scoring 42 runs in 17 games for a 2.47 average. Gray has three home starts with a 5.40 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.
MLB Best Bet #1 for Nationals-Astros: Nationals under 3.5 runs for 1.18 RW buck (FanDuel -118)
MLB Best Bet #2 for Nationals-Astros: Astros -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +115)
Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers 7:10 pm EDT
I would feel better about this one if it was in Baltimore, but the Tigers' offense is one of the worst in baseball and they have only scored 3 runs in seven out of 32 games.
MLB Best Bet for Orioles-Tigers: Tigers under 4 runs for 1.08 RW buck (FanDuel -108)
Seattle Mariners at New York Mets 7:10 pm EDT
I have been on the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets run lines so far this year, and I love getting a huge edge in the starting pitching matchup with an elite arm like Scherzer. Gonzales has been one of the worst F5 pitchers (-$409) while the Mets have been the most profitable (+$595). The Mariners have hit the skids in their last 15 games with a 3-12 record.
MLB Best Bet for Mariners-Mets: Mets -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (FanDuel +100)
Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies 8:40 pm EDT
The Royals are one of the worst teams in baseball and Greinke can't strike anyone out these days. The Rockies' huge run differential at home is something I will continue to bet on especially against a weak offensive team with terrible pitching. The Rockies average 5.8 runs per game at home and the total is 5.5. A great time to bet the Rockies is when they are coming off a road trip preferably having lost and not scoring as you get value from the oddsmakers.
From a statistical perspective, the Rockies are 7-3 as home favorites in their last 10. The Royals are just 3-13 as road underdogs in their last 16.
MLB Best Bet #1 for Royals-Rockies – Rockies -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (BetMGM +135)
MLB Best Bet #2 for Royals-Rockies – Rockies over 5.5 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +105)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers 10:10 pm EDT
The Dodgers are 10-3 at home against the run line and we get a significant edge in starting pitching matchups. They have allowed just 1.0 runs in the first five innings at home. Kershaw has been lights out this year going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. The Dodgers are 26-4 straight up the last 30 starts and 12-1 L13 in which Kershaw has been a home favorite of -200 or greater. There is not much to go by on the Phillies' side, everything just leans heavily towards the Dodgers in this spot.
MLB Best Bet #1 for Phillies-Dodgers: Kershaw under 1.5 earned runs for 1 RW buck (BetMGM +110)