FanDuel MLB: Tuesday Value Plays
FanDuel MLB: Tuesday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

With one matinee, 14 games are on the "Main" slate for Tuesday night, and the schedule features plenty of aces at a variety of prices.
The Rockies are on the road in San Francisco, but a pair of games feature an over/under total of 10 – including Red Sox-Angels and Rangers-Padres – and a few 9.0 totals with the Braves-Reds and Tigers-A's matchups.

Unfortunately, the early forecast for the Twins-White Sox matchup in Chicago is not encouraging, as flash flood warnings make that game the most likely to end up postponed out of this bunch.

I'm making a concerted effort to indicate the type of contest I prefer to use players in – cash (50/50) or tournaments (GPPs) – which is generally an exercise in estimating ownership rates (or "finding the chalk") and making sure to have enough variation around the highly-coveted top value plays to have a dangerous lineup.

Remember, a strong cash-game play isn't necessarily a "bad" tournament play, but too many "chalky" players can create a limiting factor in big-field tournaments.

Your constructive feedback is appreciated, and always welcomed.

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Pitcher

Cash: Luis Severino, NYY at PHI ($10,600) – Severino is a top-five starting pitcher right now. This is not a hot take. The Yankees are -245 road favorites against Jake Arrieta on Tuesday night. With four of the top-five arms from Tuesday's slate pitching on the road, there isn't a home park or matchup-based advantage that comes with paying up for Max Scherzer ($12,000 at TB, early game, all-day slate only) or Corey Kluber. In fact, the Phillies have the highest team split strikeout rate on the board Tuesday, sitting with a 26.3% K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Also consider: Corey Kluber, CLE at STL ($11,800), James Paxton, SEA at BAL ($9,600), Charlie Morton, HOU vs. TOR ($10,000)

GPP: Here's a quick thought on each of the options I would consider for tournaments...

Kluber – The matchup isn't difficult, and the prices on Severino, Paxton and Morton could knock down his ownership rate to a reasonable level.

Paxton – While the Orioles are a very bad team, they've been surprisingly good at tempering strikeouts against lefties this season (19.2% K%). Will it even matter against Paxton?

Morton – Even with 14 walks over his last three starts (15.2 innings), Morton has managed to average 39.3 FanDuel points per game during that span. The Astros are the biggest favorites on the board Tuesday (-275) at Minute Maid Park.

Ross Stripling, LAD vs. CHC ($9,300) – Stripling has issued two walks in his last eight starts (61:2 K:BB, 49.0 IP, 49.1 FDPts/game), flashing skills that are beginning to make me wonder if he's a legitimate late-blooming elite arm. Additionally, Kris Bryant's status for Tuesday night is up in the air as he's been sidelined recently with a shoulder injury. At -165, the Dodgers are more heavily favored against the Cubs than the Mariners are on the road against the Orioles.

David Price, BOS vs. LAA ($8,400) – The Angels don't strike out much, but Price's win probability gets a nice boost with John Lamb starting for the Halos.

Freddy Peralta, MIL vs. KC ($7,700) – Peralta will make his Miller Park debut on Tuesday after three road starts to begin his career. No team split available Tuesday is worse than the Royals' 79 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in 2018. The Brewers are -245 favorites, and Peralta has the stuff and deception necessary to rack up another solid strikeout total in this matchup.

Carlos Martinez, STL vs. CLE ($6,500) – I think he's still broken from the DL stint, but a matchup against Corey Kluber and the Cleveland offense, along with a slate loaded with viable alternatives, should keep interest very light if you're convinced a bounceback his on the horizon.

Catcher/First Base

Eric Hosmer, SD at TEX ($2,900) – Hosmer gets a big park boost almost any time the Padres are on the road, which is the case Tuesday along with a nice matchup against Austin Bibens-Dirkx in Arlington. Hosmer still hits the ball on the ground too much (his current 58.9% GB% matches his previous career-high from 2016), but the over/under for this matchup is an even 10, and more of that should come from the San Diego bats against Bibens-Dirkx than from the Rangers' bats against Tyson Ross.

Top Alternatives: Joey Votto, CIN at ATL ($4,400), Eric Thames, MIL vs. KC ($3,900)

Second Base

Jose Altuve, HOU vs. TOR ($4,700) – Lefty Ryan Borucki is starting for the Blue Jays on Tuesday night in his MLB debut, and the keystone is once again a complete mess. As a result, it's shaping up to a be a position where spending up is necessary. Borucki has been effective in the rotation at Triple-A Buffalo, posting a 3.27 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 77 innings despite a low strikeout rate (6.8 K/9) and slightly elevated walk rate (3.3 BB/9). While Altuve figures to be a reasonably high-owned option, the slumping Ozzie Albies ($4,500) draws a home matchup against Matt Harvey on Tuesday night.

Alternatives: Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM vs. PIT ($3,200), DJ LeMahieu, COL at SF ($3,700) Daniel Descalso, ARI at MIA ($2,900), Josh Harrison, PIT at NYM ($2,800)

Third Base

Jeimer Candelario, DET vs. OAK ($2,900) – Of the 11 homers that Candelario has hit this season, eight have been against fastballs. A's starter Frankie Montas has a very good fastball, but he throws 75 percent of the time, which bodes particularly well for Candelario. After a day off Monday, he should be back in the mix – likely in the No. 2 spot in the order – for Tuesday's tilt with Oakland. There are a few interesting alternatives to consider, but the mid-tier of third-base options might take a short-term hit with Travis Shaw batting an ongoing wrist issue.

Alternatives: Jake Lamb, ARI at MIA ($3,400), Rafael Devers, BOS vs. LAA ($3,200), (Contrarian) Justin Turner, LAD vs. CHC ($3,200) against Jon Lester

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts, BOS vs. LAA ($3,800) – Once again, the cluster of talented shortstops just above $4,000 should spread around the ownership fairly evenly, leaving Bogaerts as a viable play in cash-games and tournaments against Angels left-hander John Lamb. The Red Sox-Angels matchup is one of a few games with an over/under of 10 for Tuesday night, and with David Price starting for Boston, it's reasonable to project a big night from the Red Sox bats. With an uptick in flyballs, Bogaerts is well on his way to a career high in homers this season, and it's important to keep in mind that his past year-plus splits still include a chunk of 2017 in which he was playing at well below 100 percent due to a wrist injury.

Alternatives: Carlos Correa, HOU vs. TOR ($4,100), Brandon Crawford, SF vs. COL ($3,400)

Outfield

Michael Conforto, NYM vs. PIT ($2,900) – There have been whispers of a possible demotion for Conforto, but he's quietly played at his pre-injury 2017 levels in recent weeks, stringing together a .302/.415/.535 line with a pair of homers and an 8:11 BB:K over the last 12 games. Tuesday's matchup is a very favorable one against Pirates righty Chad Kuhl, whose ongoing major skills flaws is a propensity to allow damage to left-handed hitters. Although he's improved his K% and BB% in that split, Kuhl is carrying a 2.1 HR/9 against lefties after posting a 1.2 HR/9 in 2016 and a 1.3 HR/9 in 2017.

Christian Yelich, MIL vs. KC ($3,800) – The Brewers have a quick two-game home series with the Royals, and Yelich kicks things off Tuesday night with matchup against Jake Junis. With a .328 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters and a 1.31 HR/9 allowed to lefties since arriving in the big leagues last season. The over/under total for the matchup sits at a surprisingly low 8.0, but that appears to be the byproduct of rookie Freddy Peralta making the start for Milwaukee. Yelich's price doesn't quite fluctuate to match his consistently stronger splits against right-handed pitching, which include a .293/.376/.484 line and eight of his 10 homers in 2018.

Wil Myers, SD at TEX ($2,600) – Myers has been back in the mix for five games since returning from the oblique injury that cost him most of the first half, going for 2-for-15 during that span. Whether it's a mini-stack with Eric Hosmer, or a one-off play, Myers opens up a lot of salary flexibility, especially if you're looking to pay up for one of the top-end arms and to have enough cash available to target a premium option at second base. With the price sitting at least $1,000 below the expected norm, Myers offers a lot of pop at a low price, in a favorable park and matchup Tuesday night.

Pricey OF to Consider: George Springer, HOU vs. TOR ($4,100), Charlie Blackmon, COL at SF ($4,000)

Cheap/Mid-Range Alternatives: Brandon Nimmo (check status, finger), NYM vs. PIT ($3,400), Chad Pinder, OAK at DET ($2,300)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Derek VanRiper plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: RotoWireDVR, DraftKings: BentleysChair, Yahoo: d.vanriper,.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Derek VanRiper
Derek is the Director of Media for RotoWire.com, where he's been a two-time finalist for the FSWA's Baseball Writer of the Year award, and winner of the Best Football Article on the Web (2009) and Best Baseball Article on the Web (2010) awards. Derek also co-hosts RotoWire's shows on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (XM 87, Sirius 210).
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