This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
There are only three games Tuesday. However, value may open up because of two key injuries. Andre Drummond ($9,700) (illness) is questionable and Ben Simmons ($10,500) (back) is doubtful. If Drummond is out, Zaza Pachulia ($4,100) is a value option. If Simmons is out, T.J. McConnell ($4,000) should see extra run.
The highest over/under on the day is 238.5 for Clippers at Pelicans, with the lowest being 217.5 for 76ers at Pistons. The largest spread is -11 in favor of the Nuggets over the Kings, while the smallest spread is -2 in favor of the 76ers over the Pistons. The most expensive players on the slate are Anthony Davis ($13,000), Joel Embiid ($10,700), Nikola Jokic ($10,600) and the aforementioned Simmons.
Let's dive in:
Point Guard
Elfrid Payton ($7,000), NO vs. LAC
De'Aaron Fox ($8,000) and Jamal Murray ($6,400) are the options immediately above and below Payton. I'm skeptical about Fox's chances of hitting 40-plus fantasy points, as the only times he's done it so far this season are when he played 38 and 42 minutes. It's usually not safe to bank on someone playing around 40 minutes, so I have concerns there. Murray relies too much on shooting for my taste. If he has an off night, he probably won't be getting you many rebounds, assists or steals to make up for it. So, my preference for Payton may be tilted more towards my hesitancy for the options around him. Still, he's averaging 33.6 fantasy points via 10.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 8.0 assists across 30.5 minutes (37 minutes in the opener and 24 minutes Friday) through two games. Combine his triple-double upside with Tuesday's highest over/under, and I like Payton's chances for a good outing.
Shooting Guard
Jrue Holiday ($7,800), NO vs. LAC
Holiday is down 6.5 points on 3.9 fewer shots per game compared to last season. We've seen him dish the ball more, so it's possible his shot rate will continue. However, I don't expect Holiday to continue shooting 43.5 percent from the field or continue missing threes (0-for-7). Even with his shots not falling, Holiday has averaged 35.9 fantasy points across 32.5 minutes. Like mentioned previously with Payton, Tuesday's fast-paced matchup also plays a factor into Holiday's upside on the slate. Normally, I prefer not to play the highest-priced player at a given position, but shooting guard feels especially thin Tuesday.
Small Forward
Nikola Mirotic ($7,400), NO vs. LAC
At this point, you might be rolling your eyes at how high I am on Pelicans players. But this game is worth stacking, and I trust very few players on the Clippers to exceed 30 minutes (only Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari are averaging 30-plus minutes per game). Gallinari is certainly an option at small forward as well. Ideally, you could fit both of them in your lineup and have 80-plus fantasy point upside for $14,000 total. I do not expect Mirotic to continue averaging 33.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.5 assists. However, his 30.5 minutes and 20.5 shots per game are encouraging, though a better adjective for the shots might be 'surprising'. In short, the Pelicans are clearly comfortable trusting Mirotic with a high volume of shots, and he has no issue taking them.
Power Forward
Dario Saric ($5,900), PHI at DET
With Simmons officially doubtful to take the court, Saric is close to a must-play for me. When Simmons exited the Sixers' most recent game during the first quarter, Saric ended up seeing 38 minutes and providing 35.3 fantasy points via 13 points, nine rebounds, five assists, one steal and one block. Philadelphia hasn't been afraid to lean on Saric in the past. When he saw 30-plus minutes last season, he averaged 17.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists and a combined 1.2 steals/blocks. Aside from Saric, power forward might be Tuesday's most intriguing position. Blake Griffin ($8,800) could be in for a big night if Drummond is out, Tobias Harris ($7,900) might be locked in for 35-plus minutes per game, Montrezl Harrell ($4,900) most recently put up 43.5 fantasy points in 24 minutes, and Marvin Bagley ($4,700) is a bargain if you trust him to see 30-plus minutes (you shouldn't).
Center
Joel Embiid ($10,700), PHI at DET
If Simmons misses extended time, this may be the lowest price you see Embiid at until Simmons returns. I think you have to take advantage of the value while it's available. Embiid took 26 shots in the game Simmons left Saturday, finishing with 32 points, 10 rebounds and three assists (48.5 fantasy points). Anomalously, he ended up with no defensive stats, which deflated his overall fantasy output. It's important to note that Embiid took 26 shots only once last season. We might be entering uncharted territory in terms of Embiid's usage. I won't go as far as to predict a career scoring effort from Embiid, but all signs are pointing to an Embiid-centric offense.
