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Average Fantasy Points
Average Fantasy Points are determined when DeMar DeRozan was active vs. non-active during the season. Click here to view average fantasy points for a different time period.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Fresh off his most impressive Fantasy season to date, DeRozan was hoping to build on the career-best 27.3 points per game he averaged in 2016-17. That number ended up falling to 23.0, however, as DeRozan hoisted three less shot attempts (17.7) per game than he had a year prior (20.9), and also became more of a facilitator with a career-high 5.2 assists. He still kept his efficiency up and shot 45.6 percent from the field, and also hit 82.5 percent of his free-throw attempts, while getting to the line 7.0 times per game. Long known as a mid-range shooter that could score at the rim and get to the line, those numbers all fit DeRozan's typical style. As a result, it was DeRozan's concerted effort to extend his range that was somewhat surprising, considering the 28-year-old made 1.1 three-pointers per game, another career high. DeRozan ended up shooting 31.0 percent from deep and while that certainly isn't outstanding when considering others at his position, it was a step up from the brutal 26.6 percent clip he put up in 2016-17. With the Raptors being swept in the first round of the playoffs, management opted to explore the trade market this offseason, eventually coming to terms on a monster deal with San Antonio. Fellow superstar Kawhi Leonard was shipped to Toronto, while DeRozan was the significant piece that was brought over to San Antonio to make the deal work. The move certainly doesn't improve DeRozan's chances of going further in the playoffs, but it should keep his Fantasy value close to where it was in Toronto. LaMarcus Aldridge is really the only established offensive piece, so DeRozan's usage should at least sustain with the move. It may take time to get used to coach Gregg Popovich's system and the Spurs do tend to rest veterans at various points in the season, all of which are things to consider when drafting DeRozan. That said, the four-time NBA All-Star is still a top-tier shooting guard and his elite scoring ability, as well as his solid contributions in the peripheral categories, should keep him in the discussion for a selection in the first few rounds of most Fantasy drafts.
After being rewarded with a five-year, $139 million contract prior to the 2016-17 season, DeRozan didn't disappoint, averaging 27.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.1 steals across 35.4 minutes. The scoring and rebounding numbers were career highs and he was also able to shoot 46.7 percent from the field, which was his best number since the 2010-11 season. DeRozan did, however, fail to show any improvement with his three-point shooting, which is one of the biggest flaws of his game. He made just 26.6 percent of his attempts from deep, which was a significant drop from the 33.8 percent clip he had posted previously. While the three-point issues don't appear to be going away any time soon, that didn't stop DeRozan from notching his third NBA All-Star appearance, while also adding an All-NBA Third Team award to his resume. At just 27 years old, DeRozan could still be on the rise and the fact that the Raptors are bringing back nearly the exact same roster should keep the regular rotation intact from a season ago. DeRozan is expected to operate as the team's go-to option offensively and his impressive ability to both score in bunches and get to the free-throw line (8.7 attempts per game during 2016-17 campaign) should secure his spot as one of the top shooting guards in the league. While DeRozan's value would certainly increase with an improved deep ball, the added consistency to his jump shot, as well as the overall uptick in production across the box score should provide encouragement for yet another outstanding Fantasy season.
The Raptors’ backcourt duo of DeRozan and Kyle Lowry finally seemed to get the respect they deserved in 2015-16, with both players earning All-Star nods and representing the United States in the 2016 Summer Olympics. After three straight seasons with averages of 20-plus points per game, including a career-high 23.5 a year ago, the 27-year-old DeRozan was rewarded with a five-year, $139 million contract in July to remain with Toronto. The contract validates his standing as one of the top fantasy shooting guards, a position that’s relatively lacking in high-end options league wide. While DeRozan is occasionally prone to some questionable shot selection, he’s a gifted dunker who gets to line with ease. More importantly, he converts those opportunities at a high clip, hitting a career-high 85 percent of his 8.4 free-throw chances per game last season. That’s not the only area where DeRozan showed growth, though. He also hit 33.8 percent of his three-point attempts, which is still a below-average mark, but encouraging to see given his 28.3 percent career rate. DeRozan’s scoring and the stability he brings to a team’s free-throw percentage will continue to guide his fantasy value, but don’t overlook the assistance he provides in some of the other peripheral categories. He also averaged 4.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.0 steal per game last season, figures that will help fantasy owners chip away at deficits throughout the year.
A serious groin injury restricted DeRozan to a career-low 60 games, but when he was on the court, he proved his 2013-14 breakout season was no fluke, averaging 20.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 0.4 three-pointers while shooting 41 percent from the floor and 83 percent from the free-throw line. The boards and steals were both career highs, but the field goal percentage was a career low as he continued to settle for too many low-efficiency mid-range jumpers despite his skill at drawing contact and fouls. DeRozan has developed into one of the league's better volume scorers, but there are questions among the Raptors' fan base and possibly the front office as to whether the team can make a deep postseason run with him as a focal point of the offense. His current contract expires after this season, and although he holds a $9.5 million player option for 2016-17, he's unlikely to exercise it given the massive rise in salaries that will accompany the new TV deal. Whether DeRozan responds to his potential free-agent status by chucking up more bricks or looking to improve the team's efficiency with an extra pass will probably go a long way towards determining whether he'll be back in Toronto next year.
2013-14 was a coming out party for DeRozan, who emerged as a leader and impact player for the surprisingly postseason-bound Raptors. Over 79 games played, the fifth-year shooting guard averaged career highs in points (22.7), rebounds (4.3), assists (4.0), steals (1.1), three-pointers (0.8), minutes (38), and makes from the free-throw line (shooting 82 percent on an impressive 8.0 attempts per game, good for seventh in the NBA). He shot 43 percent from the floor and 31 percent from beyond the arc. DeRozan's ferocious work ethic and intensity at both ends of the court have become not just the defining characteristics of his own game but of the whole Toronto organization, and at 25 years old, it's entirely possible that he still has some growth left in his numbers, particularly as he continues to improve his long-distance shooting. He was rewarded for his efforts with his first All-Star appearance last season and earned a spot on Team USA's World Cup squad. As Toronto's roster matures around him, a deeper playoff run and more personal accolades seem within his grasp. Don't write DeRozan, or the Raptors, off as flukes.
With Andrea Bargnani shuttling in and out of the lineup last season with an elbow injury, DeRozan became the Raptors' de facto No. 1 option in the first half, averaging 17.4 points per game on 44 percent shooting. That sort of production didn't deviate much from what we've seen from DeRozan in the past, but after the arrival of Rudy Gay via trade on February 1, DeRozan seemed to make tangible improvements in his game. With opposing defenses often deploying their most talented perimeter defenders on Gay, DeRozan actually raised his scoring output to 19.0 points per game on 45 percent shooting after January, despite no longer being the Raptors' No. 1 offensive option. Always an excellent finisher, perhaps the most encouraging development was DeRozan's improved accuracy from three-point range. Though he finished the season with an ugly 28 percent mark from three-point range – still a career-best – DeRozan seemed to find his stroke down the stretch, knocking down 9-of-18 threes in April and shooting 54 percent from the field overall. DeRozan has spent all offseason working to develop further accuracy from three, and while he remains unlikely to ever become a prolific marksman from deep, any sort of improvement would help diversify his game. Considering DeRozan offers only modest production in the other counting stats categories, an uptick his three-point field goals may be his easiest path to climbing upward in the fantasy ranks among shooting guards.
DeRozan's development plateaued last season, although his late-season struggles can be tied directly to the extra defensive attention he received in the wake of Bargnani's injury. At this point in his career he's an inefficient volume scorer and highlight-reel dunker, nothing more, and as the Raptors continue to upgrade the talent level around him it would be easy to see him get left behind. Unless he starts to add some secondary skills to his arsenal, this could be his last season in a Raptors uniform.
With teammate Andrea Bargnani failing to reach the heights for which the Raptors had hoped, their focus has since turned to building a team around DeRozan’s budding talents. In 26 games after the All-Star break last season, DeRozan averaged 19.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.1 three-pointers, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.9 turnovers in 35 minutes, so he still has a way to go. His new coach, Dwayne Casey, isn’t afraid to play his star players upwards of 40 minutes per game, so beyond DeRozan’s expected development, there should be more opportunities for him to fill up the box score. DeRozan’s persistence in taking the ball hard to the hoop will keep him going to the line and make him a consistent scorer. While he tried to extend his shooting beyond the three-point arc last season, he was unsuccessful in limited attempts. DeRozan’s ability to score nearly 20 points per game makes him a Corey Maggette-esque fantasy option, but if he shows he’s developed a three-point shot in training camp, be sure to bump him even higher on your draft boards.
In his rookie season, DeRozan wasn't any sort of rosterable player, really only coming to close to relevance-even on a per-minute basis-with his shooting percentage of 49.8%. That's a good number, but not enough to merit one of your draft picks this season. Still, keep him on your radar: DeRozan only just turned 21 before the season and figures to see decent minutes at the three with Hedo Turkoglu's departure this offseason.
The Raptors drafted DeRozan to fill their glaring needs for athleticism and offense off the wing, but he isn't likely to be ready for a regular spot after spending just one year in college. With Chris Bosh, Hedo Turkoglu and Andrea Bargnani being the focal points of the offense the Raptors will want DeRozan, or whoever gets the minutes at the two, to focus more on defense than on filling up the basket so even if the rookie wins the starting job his fantasy value will be limited.
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