This article is part of our The Prospect Post series.
Sleeping On Giants
This article aims to provide an ongoing evaluation of the NBA's rookie class from a fantasy standpoint while also offering deep dives on college players with bright futures. Projecting young talent is very subjective, so an open dialogue is encouraged, both in the comments section and on Twitter: @RealJRAnderson
Just two players from the last two drafts rank in the top-30 in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) this season. Anyone reading this will already know the identity of these two players based on the accompanying photo, headline and subtitle that I'm sure my editor will put together, but it makes for a nice trivia question to ask your buddies at happy hour. Gorgui Dieng and Rudy Gobert are obviously promising young centers, especially for fantasy purposes. But back when they were drafted, nobody would have believed that they would not only be more productive than anyone taken in their class to this point, but that they would also rank as better players in their sophomore season than anyone taken in the hyped 2014 class.
Dieng, was taken with the 21st pick in the 2013 draft as a raw offensive big man who profiled as a potential backup center who could offer strong rim protection off the bench. At least 15 general managers missed in a big way here, as Dieng would be a no-doubt top-5 pick, and more likely a top-3 pick if everyone knew then what they know now. The 24-year-old Senegalese big
Sleeping On Giants
This article aims to provide an ongoing evaluation of the NBA's rookie class from a fantasy standpoint while also offering deep dives on college players with bright futures. Projecting young talent is very subjective, so an open dialogue is encouraged, both in the comments section and on Twitter: @RealJRAnderson
Just two players from the last two drafts rank in the top-30 in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) this season. Anyone reading this will already know the identity of these two players based on the accompanying photo, headline and subtitle that I'm sure my editor will put together, but it makes for a nice trivia question to ask your buddies at happy hour. Gorgui Dieng and Rudy Gobert are obviously promising young centers, especially for fantasy purposes. But back when they were drafted, nobody would have believed that they would not only be more productive than anyone taken in their class to this point, but that they would also rank as better players in their sophomore season than anyone taken in the hyped 2014 class.
Dieng, was taken with the 21st pick in the 2013 draft as a raw offensive big man who profiled as a potential backup center who could offer strong rim protection off the bench. At least 15 general managers missed in a big way here, as Dieng would be a no-doubt top-5 pick, and more likely a top-3 pick if everyone knew then what they know now. The 24-year-old Senegalese big man ranks 24th on the 2014-15 VORP leaderboard, just behind Tim Duncan and just ahead of Jeff Teague and Klay Thompson. Most impressively, he is doing this while playing on a makeshift T-Wolves roster that, for much of the season, has started Zach LaVine, who is dead last in the NBA in VORP, at point guard. I made a case recently that Andrew Wiggins' horrible VORP can be explained away, in part, because his teammates suck. But Dieng has proved to be immune to the challenges of playing on a bad team.
He is averaging 9.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.8 blocks in 29.3 minutes per game. Dieng also happens to be shooting 50.8 percent from the field and 79.2 percent from the free-throw line. What may go unnoticed is Dieng has improved drastically at the charity stripe in his second season. He made 63.4 percent of his 93 free-throw attempts in his rookie season, and while big men often gradually improve on their free-throw shooting, they rarely go from below average to above average in just one season. For instance, in 18 seasons, Duncan has bested Dieng's 2014-15 free-throw shooting on just two occasions, while shooting worse than Dieng did as a rookie on three occasions. In addition, among centers who have started at least half their team's games, Dieng has the 11th best foul rate, committing just 3.1 fouls per-36 minutes. This places him ahead of some of the bigger names at the position, and foul rate is something he should continue to improve on, which will allow him to see as many minutes as he can handle most nights. He is also roughly middle-of-the-pack in taking care of the ball among starting centers -- another skill he should continue to get better at with time. Barring an ill-advised extension, Dieng will hit free agency after the 2016-17 season. If his current trajectory holds, he will get a max contract -- not bad for a player taken outside of the lottery in one of the weakest draft classes in recent memory.
Gobert ranks 30th this season in VORP, and has played fewer minutes than everyone ranked ahead of him -- save Russell Westbrook. Much has been written and said about Pau Gasol's resurgence with the Bulls and Al Horford's quiet excellence with the 31-8 Hawks, but the two All-Star big men lag behind the 22-year-old Frenchman in these rankings. VORP also likes Derrick Favors (ranked 50th), but the third prominent big man for the Jazz, Enes Kanter, ranks 483rd, so in theory, the Jazz are sacrificing quite a bit of production by playing Kanter 26.8 minutes per game while Gobert sees just 21 mpg. Playing time aside, if the Jazz were to answer truthfully, they probably value Gobert, who was selected 27th overall in 2013, ahead of Favors (third overall in 2010) and Kanter (third overall in 2011). He has all the makings of a cornerstone center, and has only started to scratch the surface of his potential.
Among players who have played more than 500 minutes this season, Gobert ranks first in blocks per-36 minutes (3.8) and fourth in field-goal percentage (63.1 percent). His per-36 minute numbers also suggest that Gobert could average a double-double and over a steal per game if he were to see starter's minutes, and based on how he has played in his second season, it seems like a lock that he is starting for the Jazz in 2015-16. He doesn't foul enough or turn the ball over enough for those to be factors in his playing time, and like Dieng, Gobert has made major strides as a foul shooter. His 67.4 percent shooting at the line won't do a ton of harm in fantasy, and represents a huge improvement over his 49.2 percent rate on 65 free-throw attempts as a rookie.
In Dieng and Gobert, the NBA has two very promising young centers, who, along with Andre Drummond, Steven Adams, Jusuf Nurkic, Alex Len, Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor, Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl Towns, represent a bright young future for a position that was recently thought to be dying. They also represent prime examples of why even mid-first round picks need to be valued. The T-Wolves and Jazz both found franchise centers with picks in the back half of the first round of a weak draft. This is why teams like Boston value draft picks so highly, and it is why the future is bleak in Brooklyn and Cleveland after those two teams mortgaged the future to try to win now.
