This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
With only three games to choose from, usage and game selection becomes a focal point for us on Tuesday's slate. Which matchups will be the most exploitable? Before we dive in, let's look at the Vegas odds to give us a clue.
The Raptors are giving 13.5 points to the Suns with an O/U of 225 so this looks to be a good day for output for all Raptors, with a nod to Suns, starters, who will see a lot of time. The O/U is much lower in the Blazers/Wizards matchup (204), but by no means should you fade this game. The Thunder/Jazz line was not available at the time of publication, but the Thunder has historically hit the under more often than not this season, and they also handled the Jazz easily earlier this season.
That leads us to the only 10K-plus player on the slate in Russell Westbrook ($11,000). At a full $1,600 more than the next-highest-priced player, he's certainly attainable but you roster him at the expense of some great matchups for Lowry, Lillard and others. For purposes of keeping pace, I think you have to go with him in cash games and even though his last tangle with the Jazz wasn't stellar, it was the first game of the season and the new-look Thunder needed time to figure out how to play together.
As usual, I'll highlight two players to target per position and one player to avoid, along with honorable mentions for each spot.
GUARDS
Kyle Lowry, TOR vs. PHO ($37): He didn't have a great shooting night against the Pacers last Friday, but by-and-large that's been an aberration for Lowry, who has a tremendous ceiling when he has the right matchup. With the Suns traveling up from Philly on the tail-end of a back-to-back, it's hard to think of a better scenario for Lowry to shine.
Alec Burks, UTA at OKC ($14):Rodney Hood (ankle) is projected to be out for a fifth-straight game and while Donovan Mitchell ($29) will shoulder a lot of the load, Burks has had a floor of 21.6 YFP against the Nuggets and a ceiling of 53.9 YFP against the Clippers in the four games Hood as missed. He'll once again be a great value.
Other guards to consider:Damian Lillard, WAS at POR ($45), DeMar DeRozan, TOR vs. PHO ($33), Donovan Mitchell ($29), UTA at OKC
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GUARD TO AVOID
Mike James, PHO at TOR ($14): It appears that James is no longer the flavor of the month in Phoenix, with Tyler Ulis ($10) clearly outplaying him at the point. Couple the back-to-back with this news and you have to cross this guy off. Ulis might offer some cheap GPP value for you though.
FORWARDS
This position isn't exactly crawling with options, so it's a toss-up as to whether you largely punt the spots or spend more here. I'll give you one of each, with a nod to DeMar DeRozan again, who has dual eligibility at forward on Yahoo.
Paul George, OKC vs. UTA ($41): You have to discount the last time these two teams met. The first game of the season was still a workshop production for the Thunder as they figured out how to implement George and Carmelo Anthony into their offense, and Utah didn't have Donovan Mitchell playing starter's minutes. I don't see Joe Ingles winning this battle on the wing in either scenario, though.
Al-Farouq Aminu, POR vs. WAS ($19): Tuesday should be the first night we see Aminu pass the 30-minute mark in usage as he recovers from an ankle injury. He will likely come off the bench but there's a good chance he will be overlooked and could be a great tournament play.
Other forwards to consider: Otto Porter, WAS at POR ($31), T.J. Warren, PHO at TOR ($31)
FORWARD TO AVOID
Derrick Favors, UTA at OKC ($30): We're now entering the twilight of Favors' value due to the early return of Rudy Gobert. Favors will continue to see time as Gobert works his way back but he certainly won't contribute enough to warrant a $30 price tag.
CENTERS
Steven Adams, OKC vs. UTA ($23): Adams has been trending steadily upward over the past week after experiencing a bit of a slump, and although Rudy Gobert is slowly getting more minutes after his return from injury, should have a good showing for his price. He's coming off two games where he hit around 40 YFP, and I'd expect more of the same at home, where he's blowing away his road totals.
Jonas Valanciunas, TOR vs. PHO ($13): I'll say at the outset that this pick doesn't exactly thrill me, but if I have to pick among Valanciunas, Gortat and a crew of Phoenix big men, I have to go with the Toronto big man for a value choice on Tuesday. He's been a bit of a fantasy bust thus far, but his price has dipped enough to where he can reasonably find his way into DFS lineups, although you could certainly fare better. It's a razor thin slate, so you have to make some tough choices.
Other centers to consider:Jusuf Nurkic, POR, vs. WAS ($26)
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CENTER TO AVOID
Greg Monroe, PHO at TOR ($15): It's anyone's guess who will start in the Suns' frontcourt, and whether it's Monroe, Tyson Chandler or Marquese Chriss, I don't like any of their individual prospects against the Raptors. The odds aren't as bad as the Powerball, but it's best to spend up and stay away from Phoenix in this position due to the volatility in usage.
That's it for Tuesday. Even though the slate is thin, give your lineup and extra look before tip-off to insure you're safe from late scratches or injuries!
