This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Wednesday's eight-game slate encapsulates the kind of situation you always see as we careen into the All-Star break. For whatever reason, the NBA overworks these teams during this time of year to the point where injury becomes a major concern. For example, the Bulls, Lakers and Suns are the only rested teams on our slate. Half of the teams are playing their second game in three nights, and the Sixers and Cavs are playing their third game in four nights. Couple that with Brooklyn, Orlando, Portland and the Knicks on the tail-end of a back-to-back, and you're talking about a lot of fatigue, and the potential for a lot of players to be rested. Still, there are a few exploitable spots, so as long as you're able to aptly navigate the injury mine field and pick the right spots to spend up, you should be fine.
As the time of publication all of the slate's Over/Unders have very little deviation, so we'll start off with looking at our $10k-plus players. Amazingly enough, there are only two players that break that threshold on Wednesday. LeBron James ($11,100) plays his first of two consecutive games against Miami, and while its anyone's guess as to how the team will perform with Kevin Love (finger) out until March, I think it's ultimately good news for LeBron from a fantasy perspective, as he's going to be asked to absorb some of that load.
The likelihood of the Cavs acquiring a big man before the deadline certainly increases, but they don't have a whole lot to give away. Either way, we're only talking about Wednesday, and I like his chances to get close to the 58 DKFP he put up against the Heat in their last meeting. Joel Embiid ($10,400) stacks up as a great matchup against the Nets, but the Sixers are on a brutal stretch in the schedule and while I think Embiid will play, there's always a minute chance that they will rest him. I would watch the news on Embiid closely, as I think an Embiid/Simmons/Saric or Covington stack is certainly worth considering.
The guy I'm most confident about is Damian Lillard ($8,900) against the Bulls, who rank dead last against opposing point guards this season. I'm building virtually every cash lineup I have around him. While he's yet to face Chicago, I'm confident that we'll see a floor of 45 here. He'll be widely owned, but better to be on the train than off of it without a ticket! I'll be honest- this will be a popular play but I may just be clicking on Embiid and Lillard and filling in the blanks with picks that won't require me to keep my ear to the ground too closely. I'll try to illustrate some of those fill-ins below.
As usual I will highlight three players per position, along with a small list of other options that hold equal weight in my predictions. I will also endeavor to include at least one budget pick per slot.
GUARDS
As I said, I'm high on Lillard, and Ben Simmons ($8,800) is another good option up high, as Philly is a game I'd like to isolate. Here are some other picks.
Kemba Walker ($8,400) or Nicolas Batum ($6,200), CHA at ATL: Both of these guys lit it up against Atlanta last week with a similar score, so from a value perspective I think Batum would be sensible, but if you have the cash to spare, Walker would be a favorable upgrade. I'm not opposed to stacking these two either, but you're better off pairing Dwight Howard with either of them to maximize assist value.
Tyreke Evans, MEM at IND ($8,200): He's expensive, but I believe he will be worth every penny in this matchup, as he'll be responsible for a lot of the heavy lifting due to the Grizzlies' banged-up roster. He put up 44 FKFP against the Pacers in their last meeting, and I think a similar total is completely doable tonight.
Wesley Matthews, DAL at PHO, ($5,500): I think Matthews is one of the best values you'll find at guard on the slate. While he didn't break 30 DKFP when the Mavs last faced Orlando, he's been good for 30 DKFP on most evenings. Like most shooting guards his success will depend on the heat of his shooting stroke, but this price is a great risk minimizer.
Other guards to consider:C.J. McCollum, POR vs. CHI ($7,100); Spencer Dinwiddie, BKN vs. PHI ($6,200); Isaiah Thomas, CLE vs. MIA ($5,600); Jerian Grant, CHI at POR ($5,400)
FORWARDS
I'm going to roster LeBron in a few places, so don't forget to leave him out. Below are other forwards to target.
Dario Saric, PHI at BKN ($6,900): With Embiid back, you can't expect a monster performance from Saric, but he's proven that he can stuff a stat line even with The Process beside him. This is such a good matchup for Philly's frontcourt, I find it difficult to fade any of them. You could also pivot to Robert Covington ($5,800) for a little less and possibly get similar output, but I think Saric offers a better guarantee.
T.J. Warren, PHO vs. DAL ($6,700): I like this pick less if Devin Booker suits up, but even if he does I think he'll be a little worse for wear. Warren has been excellent lately, averaging right around 30 DKFP over his last ten games, with a ceiling that can easily push 40. If you can wait around to find out Booker's status, I would pivot to Warren immediately if he's out.
Bobby Portis, CHI at POR ($5,900): With Lauri Markkanen (personal) out on Wednesday, Portis should see extended minutes and is primed for a big game, especially when you consider the current quandary with Nikola Mirotic. Apparently, a last-minute breakdown in talks kept Mirotic from heading to New Orleans yesterday. With his future in Chicago in serious doubt, he could even be a DNP tonight. There is always the chance that they roll him out one more time to audition him, but would they really want to do that at an away game against Portland? I doubt it.
Other forwards to consider:Evan Fournier, ORL vs. LAL; Brandon Ingram, LAL at ORL ($6,300); Enes Kanter, NY at BOS ($6,200); DeMarre Carroll, BKN vs. PHI ($5,700); Jae Crowder, MIA at CLE ($3,800)
CENTERS
Embiid is still the unquestioned top here, but there are other totally reasonable alternative choices.
Dwight Howard, CHA at ATL, ($9,400): While it seems like every game could be a homecoming game for Howard since he's played for every team in the NBA, this sets up to be a fun one for Dwight and the Hornets as the Hawks' current frontcourt is a significant downgrade from Howard, and he's already hit them up for an average of 48 DKFP in two meetings this season. Howard's a great Embiid alternative and even better if you line him up with Kemba Walker, as this assist/point combo should be very profitable.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. CHI ($6,000): Two factors make Nurkic a great value on Wednesday – a hot streak and a weak frontcourt. He also put up 43 DKFP against the Bulls when they last met. He's not the flashiest pick, but he could be a great utility play as you complete your lineup.
Dirk Nowitzki, DAL at PHO ($4,700): Rather than play the Phoenix frontcourt lottery, which currently has worse odds than hitting the Powerball, I'll take the opponent at my cheapest center pick. Nowitzki should be a dependable 25 DKFP here, with a ceiling that could be quite attractive in tournament lineups.
It's a light slate for centers, so there's no one else I'm endorsing. As always, monitor your lineups before tip-off!
