This article is part of our FantasyDraft NBA series.
Saturday night's seven-game slate is highlighted by a marquee Rockets-Celtics matchup, intriguing Nuggets-Cavaliers and Blazers-Thunder tilts that could yield some strong fantasy production, and a big injury on the Spurs that should have a domino effect on the usage of several of his teammates in a fast-paced matchup versus the Lakers. With so much to examine, let's dive right into breaking down a slate that will offer a plethora of options with respect to lineup construction.
GUARD
Kyrie Irving, BOS vs. HOU ($15,600): Irving makes for an appealing pivot for those who can't afford any of the top trio of Russell Westbrook ($22,100), James Harden ($21,800) or Damian Lillard ($16,400), considering his play since the All-Star break. Irving posted 26 points (on 50.0 percent shooting), four rebounds, four assists, two steals and one block across 38 minutes in his one prior meeting against the Rockets this season, and he's scored 41.50 to 60.25 fantasy points in four of the last five games. The Rockets have been more vulnerable to ones of late as well, allowing 45.6 fantasy points per game to the position over the last 10, a tangible increase from their 39.0 season figure. Irving's post-All-Star break tear includes a 30.1 percent usage rate, 1.67 fantasy points per minute and stellar 58.2 percent shooting, including 54.3 percent from distance. Meanwhile, the Rockets are allowing the fifth-highest percentage of scoring from three-pointers on the road (31.1), another point in Irving's favor in a contest that should be competitive for all four quarters.
C.J. McCollum, POR vs. OKC ($13,000): McCollum finds himself in a premium spot Saturday against a Thunder squad that's been facilitating excellent fantasy production to two-guards over an extended stretch, and that struggles with giving up three-pointers overall. OKC has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game (42.8) to shooting guards on the season, including the second-most (72.2) over the last five contests. As that latter total particularly implies, they're surrendering bottom-10 figures in virtually every category against the position as well during that span, while McCollum comes in averaging 24.5 points, 4.0 assists and 3.0 rebounds across 34.5 minutes in two prior games against the Thunder this season. OKC has also allowed the second-highest percentage of scoring from three-pointers (32.2), and McCollum has drained multiple threes in four of the last six while taking at least five attempts from behind the arc in each of those contests.
Jamal Murray, DEN at CLE ($11,600): Even with the recent addition of the defensively proficient George Hill, the Cavaliers remain highly vulnerable to point guards. They've allowed the most fantasy points per game to the position on the season (43.8), including 56.9 in the last five games. They're also yielding bottom-10 figures in multiple categories to the position over that latter span, including assists (10.4) and shooting percentage (49.0). Murray has been flashing an improved shot lately, as he's drained 53.6 percent of his 11.2 shot attempts per game over the last five, including 45.5 percent of the 4.4 he's taken from distance. Cleveland comes in allowing the fourth-highest percentage of scoring from three-pointers as well (32.0), furthering Murray's case at a reasonable cost.
FORWARD/CENTER
Andre Drummond, DET at MIA ($16,300): Drummond decimated the Heat for 64.00 fantasy points on the strength of a 23-point, 20-rebound double-double the last time he faced them Feb. 3, and he's actually been a better performer on the road as well, averaging more than two additional points per game (16.3, compared to 13.9) with a markedly better shooting percentage (55.9 percent, compared to 50.7 percent) in 28 contests away from Little Caesars Arena. Meanwhile, the Heat has been more vulnerable to centers of late, as the 35.4 fantasy points they've allowed to the position over the last 10 is a notable increase from the 30.3 they've yielded on the season. Drummond's production has slightly dropped over the last several games after an early-to-mid-February tear, but he's still scored 38.00 to 58.00 fantasy points in four of his first five games coming out of the All-Star break.
Paul Millsap, DEN at CLE ($10,200): Millsap hasn't shown any rust in his first two games back from an extended layoff due to wrist surgery, as he's posted 25.75 and 34.75 fantasy points in that pair of contests. Just as encouraging is the fact that Millsap's minutes were already up to 27 in the second game, and that total naturally figures to keep climbing towards his normal workload with each successive outing. The veteran was already back with the starters in Friday's game against the Grizzlies, leaving him poised for a favorable matchup against the Cavaliers on Saturday. Cleveland has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game (40.1) to power forwards, including 47.3 over the last five. Among their many other unfavorable metrics against the position, they give up the sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating (26.6) to fours, and they're also allowing the eighth-most points in the paint (46.7) overall on the season.
If Millsap were to be ruled out for rest due to Saturday representing the second game of a back-to-back for the Nuggets, then Pau Gasol ($10,800), who's now been upgraded to probable and would see a spike in usage against his old Lakers squad with LaMarcus Aldridge (ankle) out, and Kyle Kuzma ($10,400), who's scheduled to start for the Lakers in place of Brandon Ingram (hip), would both be viable pivots in this price range.
Davis Bertans, SA vs. LAL ($8,900): Bertans is slated for a starting role Saturday in place of Aldridge, an opportunity he's parlayed into strong production previously. He racked up an efficient 20.25 fantasy points over 17 minutes against the Pelicans after Aldridge's in-game injury Wednesday, and he'd posted 20.00 or more fantasy points on seven other occasions over the prior 12 games as well. The Lakers present as an appealing matchup, considering they allow the second-highest offensive efficiency rating to power forwards (27.2) and the most fantasy points per game on the season to the position (41.5), including 50.4 over the last 10. They're also yielding league-worst or bottom-five figures versus fours in various other categories, and the fact they play at the fastest pace in the NBA on the road (105.4 possessions per game) certainly helps Bertans' cause as a value play as well.
UTILITY
Goran Dragic, MIA vs. DET ($13,600): Dragic walloped the Pistons for 52.50 fantasy points in his last meeting against them Feb. 3, and he's averaged 25.0 points (on 50.0 percent shooting), 8.7 assists and 3.7 rebounds against Detroit in three games overall. The Pistons have been vulnerable to the point guard position overall with Ish Smith manning the role, as they come into Saturday allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to ones on the season (43.7), including the most (62.8) over the last 10. They're also surrendering the most assists (13.0) and made threes (4.2) to ones over the latter span, while Dragic comes into Saturday having scored 35.5 to 55.75 fantasy points in three of his past four contests.
Dejounte Murray, SA vs. LAL ($12,400): Murray has proven adept at filling out the stat sheet in his starting point guard role, most recently posting tallies of 30.50 to 45.75 fantasy points in three of the past four games. He's also sporting a 24.4 percent usage rate and averaging 1.10 fantasy points per minute with Aldridge off the floor this season, and as mentioned previously, the latter will miss Saturday's contest with an ankle sprain. That will leave Murray in an even better position than he already would have been against a Lakers squad that's allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game (42.6) to point guards on the season, including 57.2 over the last five. They're also ranked in the bottom 10 in multiple other categories against ones, including offensive efficiency rating allowed (25.7), furthering Murray's case as a highly appealing mid-tier price given what will be a significant bump in pace of play for the Spurs.
