This article is part of our Matchup Edge series.
Detroit vs. Chicago
Open: 44 O/U, DET -6
Press time: 44 O/U, DET -5
I'm surprised that the spread here is as close as it is, and I have to wonder if pessimistic speculation on Matthew Stafford's throwing hand is part of the reasoning. Given that Stafford threw for 381 yards last week, I would imagine that if he's feeling pain, it's something he shouldn't have trouble playing through. The last time he played the Bears, in the far less favorable setting of Soldier Field, Stafford threw for 299 yards and two touchdowns. Even though Stafford's road performances have been improved this year, I think you can still safely project better efficiency at home. I think a box score like the one from earlier this year is his floor in this one.
With that said, the Bears do have a couple corners who have done well this year, namely Prince Amukamara and Bryce Callahan. Amukamara has the tools of a legitimate CB1 when healthy, and Pro Football Focus credits Callahan with just 190 yards and two touchdowns allowed on 31 targets in nine games this year.. You bet on Marvin Jones and Golden Tate producing despite those obstacles, if only because of how strong Stafford's projection is, but it might not be easy sailing for those two. In three-wide sets it might actually be Kenny Golladay who has the most favorable matchup if he's facing off against Kyle Fuller, so I think the gap between Jones/Tate and