This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I went 9-5-1 last week, about which I'd normally be happy, but I lost my best bet, the Browns, and that particular beat still has me on tilt three days later, in part because it knocked my Supercontest record from 4-1 to 3-2 (14-6 to 13-7.) I'm sure there are plenty of lucky wins along the way too, but somehow I never seem to remember them in detail.
Once again I made my own lines on Tuesday morning before looking at the actual ones this week. Unlike prior weeks, there was very little margin between mine and the real ones - I think the biggest disparity was 1.5 points.
As such, I'm not sure yet who I like best this week - I want to let it sit another 12-24 hours before choosing my Supercontest picks which I'll again post in the comments.
For the podcast version of this article, click here.
Colts +10 at Patriots
The Patriots are probably the sucker play after throttling the Dolphins last week, but the Colts just played a grueling overtime game, are likely missing T.Y. Hilton and have to travel on the short week. I set the line at 10.5, so I'm laying the wood.
Patriots 31 - 20
Ravens -3 at Browns
This is where I set the line too, so it's a coin flip for me. The Browns are much better with Baker Mayfield under center, notwithstanding their giving last week's game away