This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
That was a brutal week. I went 5-10 overall, lost my best bet (Dolphins) and went 1-4 in the Super Contest. The whole game is deciding how much to value recent results against prior track record, and I seem to be getting the balance wrong, chasing last week's improvements where it's unwarranted and fading last week's seemingly anomalous results when they turn out to be for real. Hopefully, I've calibrated it better for Week 5.
This week, I especially like the Giants, Steelers and Redskins. I feel especially shaky about my Chargers, Bears and Cowboys picks.
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Rams +1.5 at Seahawks
I made this line 2.5 as the Rams are probably the slightly better team, but the Seahawks are good, and they're especially tough at home. I also typically favor the home team on a short week.
Seahawks 26 - 23
Ravens -3.5 at Steelers
I wanted to be on the Ravens here as I usually like to fade last week's results, and the Steelers are coming off a short week. So I made the line zero, thinking the Steelers would be a small favorite at home. But three and a half is a bridge too far. The Ravens defense has looked pedestrian for the last three games, and the Steelers should move the ball against them. Take the home dog.
Steelers 23 - 20
Bears -4.5 at