This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was an absolute bloodbath, one of the worst I've ever seen. Not only did the 48.4 percent-owned Saints lose outright to a 13-point underdog, but the 38.1 percent Colts (also double-digit favorites) lost too! As did the Chiefs, Giants, Rams and 49ers, all of whom were more than three-point favorites too. Only the Ravens – largely unavailable to most – the Bears, a last second pivot when Matthew Stafford was ruled out, and Packers came through.
In the unlikely event you're still alive, let's take a look at Week 11:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAIDERS | Bengals | 57.40% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 9.77 |
| VIKINGS | Broncos | 20.90% | 500 | 83.33 | 3.48 |
| 49ERS | Cardinals | 10.20% | 600 | 85.71 | 1.46 |
| RAMS | Bears | 2.80% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.75 |
| PANTHERS | Falcons | 1.90% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.56 |
| Saints | BUCCANEERS | 1.80% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.55 |
| Bills | DOLPHINS | 1.10% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.33 |
| Chiefs | Chargers*** | 1.00% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.36 |
| Cowboys | LIONS | 0.90% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.31 |
| Patriots | EAGLES | 0.30% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.11 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in Mexico City
This is pretty clear cut week. The 49ers are the most likely to win and the least owned, followed by the Vikings (next most likely, less owned than the Raiders), followed by the Raiders (most owned, third most likely.) The only question is for those who have used the 49ers and Vikings, whether to pot-odds fade the Raiders for the Panthers or Rams.
Let's take the Rams
