Week 4 Observations

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Updated on October 5, 2020 11:22AM EST

I expected a bad week. The COVID postponements turned lineup setting into a different kind of guesswork than I'm used to. Do I gamble on my Chiefs and Patriots or ignore them? (I gambled with all the star players, pulled out all the marginal guys.) I actually left the Steelers defense and an injured Jared Cook in my lineups accidentally, as the entire exercise seemed more chaotic than usual, especially when the false alarm about Alvin Kamara and the Saints came out Sunday morning.

But actually it turned out to be a great week for my fantasy teams, if a bad one ATS. And it was almost an all-time great week, but the Giants couldn't quite finish the job against the 55-percent-owned Rams in Survivor. (I have the Packers tonight, and if they lose I'll adjust my assessment of the week down significantly.)

People (including me) have been slagging Carson Wentz all year, but he played his ass off in a road game against a tough defense with no offensive line and no receivers. Watching Wentz, and Danny Dimes earlier, it's obvious how much more coaches need to make use of their mobile QBs' running ability. The new rules and the advent of sliding has made it much safer, and teams with that option have a massive advantage.
Jerick McKinnon is apparently the workhorse while Raheem Mostert is out. Jeff Wilson got carries last week because McKinnon hurt his ribs, and the game was a blowout. McKinnon ran hard and showed good vision, but he's not nearly as explosive as Mostert.
Brandon Aiyuk made an incredible hurdle on his TD run. The Deebo Samuel, Aiyuk, George Kittle (15-15-183-1) trio looks formidable... if only the Niners had even a decent, preferably mobile, QB, the offense might be Chiefs-level unstoppable.
Nick Mullens threw one of the worst pick-sixes of all time. Even Philip Rivers and Jameis Winston were in awe.
The Raiders aren't terrible, but Derek Carr will never be the rare superstar pocket passer that can overcome a lack of mobility in this running-QB era. Jon Gruden should have moved on.
Hunter Renfrow looks good to me. He made tough, contested catches and has good quickness despite a lack of size or timed speed. The Raiders only got him the ball in garbage time, though.
Josh Jacobs isn't getting open lanes anymore with the Raiders offensive line so banged up.
Josh Allen had a scare after falling on his wrist, but returned to the game and delivered another 288 passing yards on 71-percent completion rate , 8.5 YPA, two passing TDs, a rushing TD, no picks and only one sack. Apparently he and Lamar Jackson were the QBs to get in 2018, over Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen. Athleticism over polish.
Is the Colts defense elite, or is it mostly a function of playing against the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets and Bears?
Philip Rivers is terrible. He misses open receivers, has no arm strength, no mobility and takes bad risks. He's a likeable guy and his constant trash talk is hilarious, but even if the Colts defense is as good as it looks, Rivers probably caps their ceiling.
Jonathan Taylor got 17 carries, but only one target, and both Nyheim Hines (nine carries) and Jordan WIlkins (nine carries) cut into his workload. I still think Taylor will get his eventually, but right now this is a timeshare, and there aren't many running lanes given Rivers' inability to stretch the field.
BDN (Nick Foles) was ineffective, except for the garbage time TD toss to Allen Robinson. It's amazing the Bears traded up to draft Mitchell Trubisky over Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, then paid big bucks for BDN when Cam Newton was available for free.
The Giants defense played great except for the one third-down play where Cooper Kupp got loose for a long TD. The defensive line is stout, and James Bradberry and Blake Martinez look like A-plus offseason additions.
Daniel Jones (as the booth was constantly pointing out) stares down his primary target too often and holds the ball too long. But he's an excellent runner and on the game sealing pick, could easily have run for a first down and gotten out of bounds around the 15-yard line. It was a great play by the DB to jump the route, but Jones did telegraph it.
The Giants offensive line finally opened some running lanes, and Wayne Gallman and Devonta Freeman looked okay, though Saquon Barkley would have taken Gallman's 26-yard run to the house.
Golden Tate and Jalen Ramsey have an off-field beef that exploded into a brawl after the game, and apparently Ramsey was waiting for Tate outside the locker room later. A real man never lets it go.
I'm not sure why the Rams decided to stop using Darrell Henderson. Did he miss a block in pass pro?
If you people cared about me, you wouldn't have let me make the Texans my best bet.
Adam Thielen (10-8-114-1) re-established his No. 1 status, though Justin Jefferson (5-4-103) is here to stay. The Texans simply could not stop Dalvin Cook (27-130-2) when they needed to.
Kyler Murray is a stat hog -- he led the team in rushing by a mile, and threw three TD passes to unstartable receivers, but had had only 133 passing yards and 4.3 YPA against the Panthers.
Kenyan Drake struggled before leaving with a chest injury and is looking like one of the bigger draft-day busts, even if it turns out he's okay.
Mike Davis (16-84-1, 6-5-27) is Christian McCaffrey-lite in this offense. I'm glad I went big on him in FAAB in a league where I lost Barkley.
Much as I'd like it to be D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson (11-8-99) is the Panthers No. 1 receiver.
Mark Ingram scored a TD, but it's hard to use any of the Ravens running backs right now.
The Ravens have two non-Lamar Jackson fantasy-worthy players: Marquise Brown (8-4-86) and Mark Andrews (3-3-57-2.) Like Murray, Jackson often hogs all the fantasy stats. Unlike Murray, Jackson is actually running a potent and efficient offense.
Tom Brady (369 yards, 8.0 YPA, five TDs) shook off his second pick-six of the year to post monster numbers. He's getting a feel for the offense and will get Chris Godwin back, though O.J. Howard is out for the year with a torn ACL.
With Leonard Fournette out, Ronald Jones had 20 carries and nine targets, but he dropped a couple of them. And while Jones ran hard, broke tackles and didn't get Brady killed, Keyshawn Vaughn caught the game-winning TD. Danger always lurks when you're counting on Ronald Jones.
Justin Herbert (290 yards, 11.6 YPA three TD, one pick) looks like a player. It's crazy he was considered so far behind in camp, and had the team doctor not punctured poor Tyrod Taylor's lung, we wouldn't even know about this. How can a team take a player at No. 6 overall and not know what it has? Keep in mind Herbert was playing on the road against a good defense and without Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler for most of the game.
Ekeler apparently has a hamstring/knee injury and will be out a while. I was out on Ekeler, but this will be me getting bailed out by an injury, as he was set to have a monster year with a better QB who was willing to get him the ball.
It's strange the total in MIA-SEA wound up at 54 because for most of the game it was a boring, slow FG-fest. Russell Wilson got 360 yards, but threw his first real pick and only two TDs.
I picked up and started Ryan Fitzpatrick in a couple leagues, and it wasn't pretty, but it worked -- 315 passing yards, 47 rushing yards and a rushing TD. He threw two picks, but it was enough.
DeVante Parker (12-10-110) left early with an injury but returned and was far and away the top target. Preston Williams has not yet been a factor, returning from last year's ACL tear.
The Lions backs are like the Ravens', largely unusable. Adrian Peterson is Mark Ingram, D'Andre Swift is JK Dobbins and Kerryon Johnson is (a very poor man's) Gus Edwards.
I almost started T.J. Hockenson over Kittle this week in one league, given the Saints troubles against TE and that Kittle was coming back from an injury. Thank God I didn't, though Hockenson did catch a TD.
Alvin Kamara had a modest day as a pass catcher (4-3-36), but went 19-83-1 as a rusher. He always gets his. Latavius Murray (14-64-2, 2-1-19) actually outproduced him slightly.
Emmanuel Sanders (9-6-93) is Drew Brees' top target with Michael Thomas still out, but Tre'Quan Smith (4-4-54-2) is having a micro breakout. Keep in mind Cook was also out.
The Cowboys are terrible -- they would be 0-4 but for the Falcons idly watching an onside kick roll 10 yards, but Dak Prescott -- so long as he stays healthy -- is bound to set some records. Through four games he has 1,690 passing yards, nine passing and three rushing TDs. Multiply by four, and you get 6,760 yards passing, 36 passing TDs, 344 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs.
Ezekiel Elliott salvaged a quiet day on the ground with 8-8-71 as a receiver. The offensive line isn't what it was, and the defense is bad, so Elliott might be taking a different path to his points this year.
Amari Cooper (16-12-134-1) is still the top dog, but there was plenty to go around for CeeDee Lamb (7-5-79-2) and Dalton Schultz (8-4-72-1.) The odd man out this time was Michael Gallup, but I wouldn't be especially concerned.
I've been wrong about more than a few things this year, but not about what a healthy Odell Beckham might do. During a game where the Browns were ahead the entire way, and his quarterback had only 165 passing yards, Beckham went 8-5-81-2 as a receiver and had two carries for 73 yards and a game-sealing rushing TD. If only Mayfield had Jarvis Landry's absolute hose -- Beckham's 50-yard TD was lasered by Landry on a trick play, something I was especially happy to see in one league.
Nick Chubb left the game with a knee injury and is slated to undergo an MRI. Obviously, Kareem Hunt (11-71-2) would be massive were Chubb to miss time, though D'Ernest Johnson 13-for-95 saw more carries and looked good yesterday.
As usual, Joe Mixon got off to a slow start this year, but made up for it and then some in Week 4 -- 25-151-2, 6-6-30-1. In PPR leagues, that's 42 points.
A.J. Green is probably done, but Tee Higgins (7-4-77) is starting to fill his role, while Tyler Boyd (8-7-90) is the steady-Eddie.
Gardner Minshew put up big passing numbers again, now that DJ Chark (9-8-95-2) is back. Laviska Shenault (6-5-86) also contributed but only had one carry, as the team seems satisfied with fellow rookie rookie James Robinson (17-75-0, 4-4-32.)
There were 10 field-goals of 50-plus yards attempted so far this week (Harrison Butker is still up Monday night), and eight were good. When Sam Ficken is drilling 54-yarders like it's no big deal, you know you're in the golden age of kicking. Put differently, Ficken and half the other modern-day kickers would be a Hall of Famers were they to time travel to the 1960s.