This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was awfully frustrating if you backed the Saints because most people were on the Patriots, and they would likely have had to go to overtime against the Raiders but for a ticky-tack holding call that negated a Darren McFadden touchdown in the final minute. That game - where New England was favored by 14.5 points (and 91 percent on the moneyline) - goes to show how easy it is for major upsets to happen and why it's important to consider their potential impact in your survivor pool before making your pick.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken | Vegas ML* | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | Jaguars | 58.60% | 825 | 89.19 |
| STEELERS | Buccaneers | 19.50% | 330 | 76.74 |
| COLTS | Titans | 16.30% | 300 | 75.00 |
| Falcons | VIKINGS | 1.50% | 140 | 58.33 |
| REDSKINS | GIANTS | 0.90% | 185 | 64.91 |
| Dolphins** | Raiders | 0.90% | 185 | 64.91 |
| 49ERS | Eagles | 0.50% | 225 | 69.23 |
* Average of the Vegas moneylines
** Game played on a neutral field in London
The question here is whether to go with the crowd on the safer Chargers or try for the big score on the Steelers or Colts. I won't break down the math for the Steelers vs. the Colts because they're so close both in percent taken and likelihood to win, it's just a matter of which team you personally prefer. (I'll discuss my preference, the Steelers, below.)
Between the Chargers and Steelers, the Vegas math looks like this: Chargers win/Steelers loss is .89 *.23 = .20. Steelers win/Chargers loss
Last week was awfully frustrating if you backed the Saints because most people were on the Patriots, and they would likely have had to go to overtime against the Raiders but for a ticky-tack holding call that negated a Darren McFadden touchdown in the final minute. That game - where New England was favored by 14.5 points (and 91 percent on the moneyline) - goes to show how easy it is for major upsets to happen and why it's important to consider their potential impact in your survivor pool before making your pick.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken | Vegas ML* | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHARGERS | Jaguars | 58.60% | 825 | 89.19 |
| STEELERS | Buccaneers | 19.50% | 330 | 76.74 |
| COLTS | Titans | 16.30% | 300 | 75.00 |
| Falcons | VIKINGS | 1.50% | 140 | 58.33 |
| REDSKINS | GIANTS | 0.90% | 185 | 64.91 |
| Dolphins** | Raiders | 0.90% | 185 | 64.91 |
| 49ERS | Eagles | 0.50% | 225 | 69.23 |
* Average of the Vegas moneylines
** Game played on a neutral field in London
The question here is whether to go with the crowd on the safer Chargers or try for the big score on the Steelers or Colts. I won't break down the math for the Steelers vs. the Colts because they're so close both in percent taken and likelihood to win, it's just a matter of which team you personally prefer. (I'll discuss my preference, the Steelers, below.)
Between the Chargers and Steelers, the Vegas math looks like this: Chargers win/Steelers loss is .89 *.23 = .20. Steelers win/Chargers loss is .77 * .11 = .08.
Let's look at the payout using our hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool. If the Chargers lose and Steelers win that knocks out 59 people, leaving 41. But another five are expected to lose on other teams, leaving 36. Your equity would therefore go from $10 to $1000/36 = $27.78.
If the Steelers lose and Chargers win, 20 people would go down plus another five from other teams, leaving 75. Your $10 would be worth $1000/75 = $13.33.
So which ratio is bigger? $27.78/$13.33 = 2.08. But .20/.08 = 2.5.
That means the higher risk on the Steelers isn't quite worth the added payout, assuming you agree with the Vegas numbers, and assuming your pool's picks are in line with these "polling" numbers.
In my experience, the heavy favorite is backed a little more heavily than the polling would sometimes indicate as the polls include all pools, including re-buy ones where it pays to take bad teams, and if you lose you buy back in, while saving the good ones. So I think I'll probably use the Chargers in some and Steelers in others.
My Picks
1. San Diego Chargers
If you want to survive this week only, the Chargers are easily the best bet. But realize there are a lot of other people on them, so your upside in getting through is modest. Moreover, Blake Bortles should give the Jaguars a shot in the arm, and this game has letdown potential after San Diego's two big underdog wins. I give the Chargers an 87 percent chance to win this game.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
They looked great in Carolina Sunday night, but before that they were lucky to handle the Browns at home and were blown out by the Ravens in Baltimore, something that rarely happened in the past. The Bucs aren't as bad as they looked in Atlanta, and they've had 10 days to stew on the loss and get ready for the game, while the Steelers played Sunday night. Moreover, the Steelers have multiple injuries to starters on their defense, and Mike Glennon, unlike Josh McCown, has the arm to get the ball downfield to his big receivers. Still, Pittsburgh's at home, they have one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and they just annihilated Carolina in its own building. I give the Steelers a 75 percent chance to win this game. Accordingly I'm going to use a couple entries on them to cash in if the Chargers do lose.
3. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts sure took it to Jacksonville last week, but that's arguably the worst team in the league, and Indy still has only an average-at-best defense, no skill players who scare anyone, and a coach that plays it safe and keeps other teams in the game. Andrew Luck looks like a budding star, but I'd expect the Titans to hang around. I give the Colts a 72 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissons:
San Francisco 49ers - They're five-point favorites, but the back four have been exploited the last two weeks, and Philly could light them up as well if they don't get pressure on Nick Foles. The Niners will probably win, but the Eagles are too dangerous.
Miami Dolphins - It might be tempting to use up the Dolphins against the Raiders, but Ryan Tannehill and the offensive line have struggled, and there's talk coach Joe Philbin has lost the team. Throw in an intercontinental flight, and it's too much of a crap shoot.
