This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
(Note, I nixed the right-hand columns from the table because I suspect those calculations overcount winning probability at the expense of ownership percentage. I haven't used those numbers for my picks, especially because the ownership percentage is noisier the deeper you go into the season, but the more I looked at it, it's probably not worth displaying them at all. So it's back to the older, simpler table.)
| Team | Opponent | % Taken | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | Bears | 56.00% | 375 | 78.95% |
| COLTS | Texans | 14.20% | 240 | 70.59% |
| Falcons | RAMS | 13.80% | 240 | 70.59% |
| Bengals | BROWNS | 5.60% | 230 | 69.70% |
| Vikings | JAGUARS | 4.20% | 170 | 62.96% |
| PATRIOTS | Ravens | 1.70% | 320 | 76.19% |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 1.30% | 135 | 57.45% |
| 49ERS | Jets | 0.80% | 135 | 57.45% |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 0.40% | 155 | 60.78% |
| PANTHERS | Chargers | 0.40% | 110 | 52.38% |
| Steelers | BILLS | 0.20% | 115 | 53.49% |
| Redskins | EAGLES | 0.20% | 110 | 52.38% |
| Cowboys | GIANTS | 0.20% | 150 | 60.00% |
| EAGLES | Redskins | 0.20% | 91 | 47.64% |
| Broncos | TITANS | 0.20% | 91 | 47.64% |
| BROWNS | Bengals | 0.20% | 45.5 | 31.27% |
| Jets | 49ERS | 0.10% | 74 | 42.53% |
| Seahawks | PACKERS | 0.10% | 135 | 57.45% |
| Cardinals | DOLPHINS | 0.10% | 87 | 46.52% |
| JAGUARS | Vikings | 0.10% | 59 | 37.11% |
| TITANS | Broncos | 0.10% | 110 | 52.38% |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This late in the year, you have to check your pool's remaining teams' usage histories to get a
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
(Note, I nixed the right-hand columns from the table because I suspect those calculations overcount winning probability at the expense of ownership percentage. I haven't used those numbers for my picks, especially because the ownership percentage is noisier the deeper you go into the season, but the more I looked at it, it's probably not worth displaying them at all. So it's back to the older, simpler table.)
| Team | Opponent | % Taken | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIONS | Bears | 56.00% | 375 | 78.95% |
| COLTS | Texans | 14.20% | 240 | 70.59% |
| Falcons | RAMS | 13.80% | 240 | 70.59% |
| Bengals | BROWNS | 5.60% | 230 | 69.70% |
| Vikings | JAGUARS | 4.20% | 170 | 62.96% |
| PATRIOTS | Ravens | 1.70% | 320 | 76.19% |
| BUCCANEERS | Saints | 1.30% | 135 | 57.45% |
| 49ERS | Jets | 0.80% | 135 | 57.45% |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 0.40% | 155 | 60.78% |
| PANTHERS | Chargers | 0.40% | 110 | 52.38% |
| Steelers | BILLS | 0.20% | 115 | 53.49% |
| Redskins | EAGLES | 0.20% | 110 | 52.38% |
| Cowboys | GIANTS | 0.20% | 150 | 60.00% |
| EAGLES | Redskins | 0.20% | 91 | 47.64% |
| Broncos | TITANS | 0.20% | 91 | 47.64% |
| BROWNS | Bengals | 0.20% | 45.5 | 31.27% |
| Jets | 49ERS | 0.10% | 74 | 42.53% |
| Seahawks | PACKERS | 0.10% | 135 | 57.45% |
| Cardinals | DOLPHINS | 0.10% | 87 | 46.52% |
| JAGUARS | Vikings | 0.10% | 59 | 37.11% |
| TITANS | Broncos | 0.10% | 110 | 52.38% |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This late in the year, you have to check your pool's remaining teams' usage histories to get a sense of how accurate the ownership numbers are. If they check out similarly to what we have here - and they might - the Lions are a good fade this week at 56-percent ownership. That said, there are no remotely sure things this week - so doing so is more of a short-term gamble than usual, but one worth making, in my opinion, if your goal is to win your pool.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
They always seem to be the top pick, and for good reason. They lost only one game all year with Tom Brady, and that was to another elite team, the Seahawks. I don't love them here and actually think the Ravens will keep it close, but at home against a non-elite team, I'd still take New England if I had them. I give the Patriots a 75 percent chance to win this game.
2. Indianapolis Colts
The Texans have a good defense, and this is a key divisional game, but Andrew Luck is playing out of his mind (no pun intended), Brock Osweiler has been arguably the worst QB in the NFL this year and the game is in Indy. I give the Colts a 70 percent chance to win this game.
3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are much better than the Rams, but Los Angeles has often played tough defense at home, and Atlanta's defense is easy to move the ball against. I give the Falcons a 69 percent chance to win this game.
4. Cincinnati Bengals
I actually picked the Browns to beat them on a whim in Beating the Book, and I'm certainly taking Cleveland plus six at home. But, push comes to shove, had I used the top three teams, I'd roll the dice with the Bengals in the hopes the Lions lost and my pool got a lot thinner in a hurry. The Bengals are better than the Browns on both sides of the ball, and Robert Griffin (if he suits up) hasn't played much over the last several years. I give the Bengals a 65 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Detroit Lions - this is the most likely team to win this week (I'd give them a 78 percent chance), but if your pool's ownership levels are close to the polling data here (56%), it's worth fading them in case they lose.
Minnesota Vikings - They have trouble scoring points, Jacksonville's defense isn't terrible, and they're on the road.
Dallas Cowboys - They're on a roll, but the Giants beat them before and have the defense and weapons on offense to do it again at home.
