After a nice close to the regular season, Wild Card Weekend is here with some good and bad matchups. The Jaguars could be headed for another blowout while the NFC could have two extremely tight games. With only eight teams in action, the DFS options are limited. I had to drop some players I originally wanted, but still feel comfortable about the team I put together for the opening weekend of the playoffs.
Jared Goff, LAR vs. ATL ($12,300): My roster set up perfectly to fit Goff in at quarterback. He has one of the better matchups this weekend against an Atlanta secondary that ranks 19th against the pass, according to Football Outsidersí DVOA. The Rams base their offense around Todd Gurley, but Goff still has at least two touchdowns in his last five starts. He doesnít often reach 300 yards, but when needed, he threw for over 300 yards against teams like the Titans and Saints. Alex Smith ($12,500) is also worth a look.
Todd Gurley II, LAR vs. ATL ($17,900): Given the lack of choices, you either have to pick Gurley or Alvin Kamara ($17,200) at running back unless you want to risk getting zero points from other players. Gurley is my choice because he gets more touches and was also on a tear in his final two starts. To keep his floor high, he also has at least three receptions in his last seven games. The Falcons donít have a terrible defense, but this game has an over/under near 50 points and the Rams are almost a touchdown favorite.
Christian McCaffrey, CAR at NO ($11,200): McCaffreyís floor is high due to receptions and thatís a great reason to pick him at this price. In his two games against the Saints this season, he has 14 receptions for 134 yards. As long as he reaches 10 fantasy points, thatíd be good enough and heís done that in 10 of his last 12 games. The Saints have a solid defense but have had issues against pass-catching running backs throughout the season with McCaffrey at the top of the list. James White (eight catches), Theo Riddick (five) and Tevin Coleman (four) all had success against them.
Michael Thomas, NO vs. CAR ($14,000): As the most consistent receiver on the slate, I needed Thomas on the squad. He looks to be past his bum hamstring from a couple weeks ago after six grabs in Week 17. He has hit 10 fantasy points in his last 11 starts, but also provides upside as seen in his 30-point performance against the Falcons. In two games against the Panthers this season, Thomas has 12 grabs for 157 yards and two touchdowns. Thatís about 20 fantasy points per game.
Robert Woods, LAR vs. ATL ($12,000): The run of Rams continues with Woods, who should be ready to go after resting in Week 17. He returned from a shoulder injury in the prior two weeks and played the majority of snaps, although only had nine receptions. Before getting hurt, Woods had back-to-back weeks of eight catches and totaled 252 yards. While thatís the extreme, he at least has the potential to go off and itís already known heíll be on the field most of the game, which keeps his floor high.
Greg Olsen, CAR at NO ($9,000): Travis Kelce ($13,800) is the clear top option at tight end, but his price will give you major holes at other positions. Olsen hasnít produced much since going for 116 yards against the Packers in Week 15 and thatís the main worry. But the reason to use him is that he has 27 targets in the last three games and Cam Newton has looked to him much more than the injured Devin Funchess. While itís possible he has one catch on nine targets again, itís also possible he surpasses five receptions.
Sammy Watkins, LAR vs. ATL ($9,900): I didnít originally have this many Rams on my roster, but thatís how the pieces fit. With Woods, Watkins, and Gurley on the squad, Iím close to guaranteeing multiple touchdowns in addition to Goff. Even better for the receivers I picked, the Falcons rank 25th in the league against both No. 1 and No. 2 WRs (per DVOA). Watkins doesnít have the same kind of numbers as Woods, but there are few other players with his upside at this price.
Eric Decker, TEN at KC ($7,400): Decker doesnít have much upside and thatís seen in his price. Heís in this spot because he doesnít cost anything and heís had at least three receptions in his last seven games. As a bonus, the Titans may be forced to pass if the Chiefs get ahead and thatís more than possible considering Tennessee has lost three of its last four games. If you have more money sitting around, Derrick Henry ($10,600) is another good play against the leagueís worst rush defense (according to DVOA).
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. BUF ($6,300): In my mind, thereís only one spot to go at defense. The Jags not only have the best matchup but also are the best fantasy defense in the league. The Bills have given up 10 sacks the last two weeks against the Pats and Dolphins and may be without LeSean McCoy. If McCoy doesnít play, the Bills could have trouble scoring.