Phoenix Open Preview: Bubba Shines in the Desert

An early-season win ... what's it really worth? The easy answer is a lot of money and a two-year exemption. The more complicated answer is it depends. A win on the West Coast Swing can be a difference-maker for a young player, setting him up for a care-free season, knowing that nothing he does the rest of the year can remove his privileges for the following season. For more seasoned veterans, though, an early season win can mean big things, but more often than not, it ends up meaning little in the big picture. Just look at Jimmy Walker last season. His early season wins were good for getting everyone excited, but in the end, Walker failed to live up to the higher expectations.

I bring this up because Bill Haas, who just scored a nice win last week at the Humana Challenge is about to get a lot of praise for his victory and while the praise is deserved, it might be a little premature to say that he's turned a corner with his overall game. Haas is certainly a solid player whose beat the best on the PGA Tour many times, but the fact remains there are many holes on his resume, mainly majors and WGC events. Has he turned the corner? Is this the year he makes the leap to the next level? Perhaps, but his win last week was just that -- a nice win and certainly not a harbinger of future success at the majors or WGC events.

This week: Phoenix Open - TPC of Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Ariz.

Last Year: Kevin Stadler shot a final-round 68 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Graham DeLaet and Bubba Watson.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Bubba Watson

When motivated, Watson is the one of the best players on the PGA Tour and judging by his track record, Watson is motivated in Scottsdale. Watson finished runner-up here last year and has missed the cut only once in eight tries at this event.

Phil Mickelson

Mickelson in Arizona is never a bad bet, but to make this pick, you'd have to think Mickelson is going to falter again at the majors. That's a tough argument to make, but if you are in that camp, then Mickelson is a decent pick this week.

Hunter Mahan

Mahan's track record at this event is all over the place, but when he's on, he usually finds himself in the top 10. Mahan won this event in 2010 and finished T4 here last year. While there might be better spots to use him later in the year, this appears to be among the best.

Ryan Palmer

If you didn't use Palmer last week, there still may be time. Palmer finished in the top 10 last week at the Humana Challenge, and it appears as though he's still on a roll. His track record here is a bit scattered, but if he's still near the top of his game, he should again fare well in Scottsdale.

Brendan Steele

This event isn't for everyone, but Steele seems to have found his comfort zone in front of the rowdy fans in Scottsdale. Steele enters this year's event on a streak of three consecutive top-6 finishes. If you are looking for someone a bit off the beaten path this week, Steele is your man.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Ryan Moore

Moore has played well at this event the last couple years, but he withdrew from the Humana Challenge last week with neck pain and you know the rule -- never take a golfer off a withdrawal. He may be fine after the time off or he may have lingering issues. There's no way to know.

Justin Leonard

Leonard might have played well here once upon a time, but the last eight years he's found little to no success. He's failed to crack the top 30 in those eight years and has missed the cut five times. He's also coming off two rounds in the 70s at the Humana, which is pretty lousy.

Aaron Baddeley

Baddeley won this event in 2007, but he's failed to find that same magic since. It's not like he's struggling to make the cut here, but he's failed to crack the top 30 since his win in 2007.

Matt Kuchar

Kuchar is playing well, but he's only finished in the top 10 once in six tries here. Perhaps it's the course, perhaps it's the atmosphere, but something in Scottsdale doesn't jive with Kuchar's game. You might as well wait for a better spot to use him.

Tiger Woods

There are going to be many good spots to use Tiger this year, so why use him off a long layoff in a spot where he hasn't played in years? Woods has played well at this event, but he hasn't teed it up here in more than a decade.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Ryan Palmer (T10) - $136,800; Season - $746,812

This week: Brendan Steele - Steele looks like a very solid play this week. Not only does he have a good track record here, but he's also coming off a nice finish last week at the Humana Challenge where he earned a top-5.

YAHOO PICKS

Points: 414
Rank: 38,259

This Week:

Group A: Bubba Watson, Ryan Palmer

Group B: Hunter Mahan, Phil Mickelson, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler

Group C: Brendan Steele, Charley Hoffman

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Matt Jones (T41); Streak - 3

This week: Brendan Steele - Might as well strike while the iron is hot. Steele has yet to miss a cut here in four tries and appears to be near the top of his game. A missed cut this week would be a big surprise.