Honda Classic Preview: Luke's no Fluke at PGA National

Say what you want about him, he pouts too much, he doesn't care enough, he has no tact, but one thing can't be disputed ... the man knows how to close. The man of course, is Bubba Watson, and he's at it again. He's rarely mentioned in the elite group for Spieth, Day and McIlroy, yet when it comes to closing out a victory, he's about as good as it gets. This is where you'd usually see a bunch of numbers to back up that point, but I've got something better than numbers ... I've got a sense.

Sure, it sounds stupid, but there are certain players you just feel good about closing out an event, and Bubba is one of them. Dustin Johnson, on the other hand, is not one. This isn't meant to be a rip on DJ -- he's had plenty of success throughout his career -- but he remains a golfer who's not easy to trust on Sunday afternoon. Bubba, for all of his quirks, is one of the more reliable guys come Sunday afternoon. Admit it, as soon as the field crossed over to the back-nine on Sunday, you knew who was going to win, right? Not Rory, who was just a little off all week. Not DJ, who was never quite low enough to be a threat, and certainly not Jason Kokrak, who quite honestly was just overmatched by the talent near the top of the leaderboard. The only guy who seemed to have a chance was Adam Scott, but even as he chipped-in on the 72nd-hole for birdie, to pull even with Watson, Bubba was in position for birdie on the 17th and quickly regained a lead that he would not relinquish.

Bubba winning on the West Coast Swing is nothing new, though to earn the respect of his peers and pry his way into that "elite" conversation he'll have to play like he did last week for the entire season.

This week: Honda Classic - PGA National Resort - Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.

Last Year: Padraig Harrington shot a final-round 70 on his way to a playoff victory over Daniel Berger.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Luke Donald

Although Donald has struggled for much of the last five years, he's somehow found a way to play well at this event. He's only played here four times since 2008, but he's finished in the top 10 each of those starts. His game has shown signs of life the last 12 months, so this could be a huge week for Donald.

Rory McIlroy

For those who want to go contrarian this week and this season, McIlroy could be your guy. I would advise against using Rory outside a major, but if you are planning to do so, this would be a good spot as he has finished either first or second in two of his last four starts here, and his form looks to be pretty good.

Paul Casey

Although Casey has only played here four times, he's left his mark. He finished just outside of the playoff last year and dropped a T12 the year prior. His first start here in 2010 resulted in a T4. Casey is your "not good enough to take during a major, but good enough to win against a decent field" player this week.

Russell Knox

If you are like me, and you you've burnt some big names the last couple weeks, you may want to take it down a notch and go with a guy like Knox this week. In his limited action here, Knox has really impressed, with a T3 last year and a T2 the year prior.

Jonas Blixt

Blixt has been all over the place the last few weeks, with a top-5, a top-10 and a missed cut, so there's some risk involved using him here, but he seems to be at or near top form entering this week, so he's worth a look. He's only played here twice, so his results can't really be trusted either.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Jerry Kelly

Kelly refuses to simply limp onto the Champions Tour. He's played some good golf the last few seasons, but Father Time catches up with everyone eventually. When Kelly was a young man (five years ago), he managed to get around this track in style, but his four most recent starts here have resulted in missed cuts.

Chris Stroud

Stroud is off to a very rough start this season and while a return to the Honda Classic, where he's had some success, might snap him out of his funk, his prospects look bleak as he enters this week having failed to crack the top 50 in any of his five starts since the calendar turned.

Carl Pettersson

Carl Pettersson made the cut at the Northern Trust Open last week. That's the extent of the good news for Pettersson this year. Last week was Pettersson's first made cut of the year, but he could only manage a T59 by the end of the week. Add to that, he's never really fared well at this event, and Pettersson is the "perfect storm" candidate this week.

Padraig Harrington

Harrington's win here was a big part of a career resurgence last season, but the odds of him going back to back at this event are nearly nil. Harrington isn't the golfer he was 10 years ago, and while he's still got something left in the tank, I don't expect to see his top form this week.

Rickie Fowler

No big names on the list to this point, so I have to find one, right? Fowler looks like a good guy to fade this week as his track record here is just average. He's also a guy you want to save for later in the year as well, so there's no need to pull the trigger on Fowler this week.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Charl Schwartzel (T45) - $19,059; Season - $3,592,352

This week: Luke Donald - This looks like the perfect spot to use Donald, his track record here is solid and there's no worry about burning him too early. There's also a chance that he'll be slightly under the radar ... slim chance anyway.

YAHOO PICKS

Points: 948
Rank: 26,617

This Week:

Group A: Adam Scott, Rickie Fowler

Group B: Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Luke Donald, Russell Knox

Group C: Jonas Blixt, Ernie Els

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Charl Schwartzel (T45); Streak - 8

This week: Luke Donald - Again, this look like the perfect spot to use Donald. He's been very reliable at this event and there's no worry about saving him for later as he's proven unreliable at most of the other events on the schedule.