Despite falling short of the Sprint Cup Series championship in 2015, Harvick was once again the most dominant driver in the Sprint Cup Series. His failure to defend his title was more a function of the one-race-off luck of the Chase than anything else. He recorded three victories and career highs in top-5s and top-10s with 23 and 28, respectively. When you factor in the 13 runner-up finishes you can truly appreciate just how dominant the No. 4 team was last season. With crew chief Rodney Childers and the entire supporting cast returning in 2016, there's no reason to expect a downturn. If anything, Harvick will be hungrier than ever to win the crown.

It’s difficult to give any driver the “lame duck” label, and ones as gifted as Harvick it is even more difficult. Still, the Richard Childress Racing star is coming off one of his worst seasons in Sprint Cup Series racing. Were it not for some late-season magic and surprise win at Phoenix, he would have been locked out of victory lane in 2012. Harvick announced late last season that he will be heading to Stewart Haas Racing in 2014, making his upcoming season with RCR his last with team owner Richard Childress. Just how this affects the mindset of this team knowing that Harvick’s days are numbered at the No. 29 camp is anyone’s speculation, but it can’t be that good. Raw talent alone probably earns Harvick 13-15 Top-10 finishes in 2013, but making the Chase field and winning races seems highly unlikely.

Harvick has fallen short of expectations since his rookie season with RCR. He should be competing for championships, and it's not clear if it's the team, personell, or Harvick who's holding this team back. He's a high risk/reward driver in 2006.