Rounding Third: The RotoWire 200

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Updated on January 15, 2015 3:27PM EST

The RotoWire 200

This is our top 200 for 12-team, mixed-league drafts. Here's a few guidelines on how this list is compiled:

- I'm assuming it's a standard 5x5 league.

- Though it doesn't strictly hew to our projected auction values, it's pretty close. Occasionally draft dynamics will push a player up or down beyond what his stats are worth. To that end, these players are listed in order of where I think they should rank, without regard to ADP. To the extent that there are some early outliers, I've tried to note them in the comments. I do operate under the assumption of a 68-32 hitter-pitcher split in valuing the players.

- A player needs to have played at least 20 games at the position last year to qualify there this year, or if he was a minor leaguer it would be at the position where he played the most last year. Cuban players ... honestly, determining positions for them is a harder enterprise. I'm slotting them at where I think that they'll play.

- 200 isn't really that deep. We'll come out with a top 350 later on, but this version is going into the magazine, where 200 is a tidy number. In a similar vein, the format necessarily requires shorter comments. For more insight, read the player's outlooks, which are now up on the site.

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Comment
1	Mike Trout	OF	ANA	Even with some decline, Trout is still the top player by a

The RotoWire 200

This is our top 200 for 12-team, mixed-league drafts. Here's a few guidelines on how this list is compiled:

- I'm assuming it's a standard 5x5 league.

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Comment
1	Mike Trout	OF	ANA	Even with some decline, Trout is still the top player by a healthy margin.
2	Andrew McCutchen	OF	PIT	McCutchen runs less frequently but more efficiently, and a power spike still could come.
3	Clayton Kershaw	P	LA	Chris Liss said I was crazy to project 20+ wins for him (or anyone else) last season. He was almost right.
4	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	AZ	The offseason should provide enough time for him to fully recover from his broken hand.
5	Miguel Cabrera	1B	DET	There is some fear that Cabrera could emulate Albert Pujols' career path from the last three years.
6	Jose Abreu	1B	CHI-A	Abreu was the rare trendy draft day guy that exceeded even the most optimistic expectations.
7	Giancarlo Stanton	OF	MIA	Stanton should run less and hit for a lower average than last year, but he could have higher counting stats otherwise.
8	Jose Bautista	OF	TOR	Bautista stayed healthy for a full season for the first time in three years.
9	Carlos Gomez	OF	MIL	Depending on how you weight stolen bases, Gomez might merit a higher pick.
10	Adam Jones	OF	BAL	Jones showed a few cracks in the armor in 2014, most notably in his performance against righties.
11	Yasiel Puig	OF	LA	Suffice to say, we value him higher than his manager does.
12	Felix Hernandez	P	SEA	Hernandez actually gained over a half mph on his fastball in 2014.
13	Ryan Braun	OF	MIL	Braun had cryotherapy treatments for his thumb during the offseason.
14	Anthony Rizzo	1B	CHI-N	Rizzo made huge gains in 2014, especially in his performance against lefties.
15	Edwin Encarnacion	1B	TOR	Encarnacion has three consecutive seasons with 34+ homers.
16	Jose Altuve	2B	HOU	There should be some pullback from Altuve's outrageously high 2014 batting average.
17	Freddie Freeman	1B	ATL	Freeman's power disturbingly fell off after the first two months of 2014.
18	Buster Posey	C	SF	It's always nerve-wracking taking a catcher this early, but Posey is the rare one worth it.
19	Troy Tulowitzki	SS	COL	We project Tulo to play 127 games - adjust your ranking on him accordingly.
20	Chris Sale	P	CHI-A	Sale should get better run support and bullpen work behind him in 2015.
21	Robinson Cano	2B	SEA	Cano broke his toe in Japan in November, but the Mariners expect that he'll be ready by the start of spring training.
22	Ian Desmond	SS	WAS	Desmond has had three consecutive 20-20 seasons.
23	Corey Dickerson	OF	COL	The Rockies will hopefully leave Dickerson alone and let him play everyday in 2015.
24	Bryce Harper	OF	WAS	Harper could rate higher, but it's on spec and not what he's done so far.
25	Josh Donaldson	3B	TOR	Donaldson really upgraded ballparks with the trade to Toronto.
26	Anthony Rendon	2B, 3B	WAS	Rendon probably will spend the full season at third base, with Ryan Zimmerman moving across the diamond.
27	Max Scherzer	P	FA	Scherzer was still a free agent at press time, but his strikeouts will play anywhere.
28	Adrian Beltre	3B	TEX	Sadly, Beltre had a relatively healthy season in a year when the Rangers' world collapsed around him.
29	Matt Kemp	OF	SD	Kemp was a monster over the second half in 2014, but the trade to the Padres hurts his value.
30	Justin Upton	OF	SD	The trade to Petco really hurts Upton, even with the adjustments down the left field line.
31	Madison Bumgarner	P	SF	Bumgarner's playoff workload has to be at least a little bit of a concern.
32	Michael Brantley	OF	CLE	Brantley is a tough 2015 call - coming off a career year, but with component numbers that don't look fluky.
33	Hunter Pence	OF	SF	"Hunter's Hitters" video is still priceless.
34	Adrian Gonzalez	1B	LA	Gonzalez remains likely to have many opportunities to hit with runners on base.
35	Chris Davis	1B, 3B	BAL	Davis has received a medical exemption to use Adderall for 2015.
36	Johnny Cueto	P	CIN	Cueto is potential midseason trade-bait if the Reds fail to contend.
37	Albert Pujols	1B	ANA	Does Pujols have one more spike left in him, or was 2014 as good as it gets now?
38	Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	NY-A	While Ellsbury's overall numbers were better at home, he actually hit more homers elsewhere.
39	Todd Frazier	3B, 1B	CIN	Frazier's breakout wasn't entirely off the chart, but where did the stolen bases come from?
40	George Springer	OF	HOU	Massive counting stat potential, but also a massive strikeout rate.
41	Victor Martinez	1B	DET	Martinez had his best year at age 35 - was it just a matter of finally being fully healthy and out from behind the plate?
42	David Price	P	DET	The only negative with Price is that he occasionally gets too much of the plate, leading to hard contact.
43	Stephen Strasburg	P	WAS	Somehow Strasburg's 242-strikeout season in 2014 seemed like a disappointment.
44	Evan Longoria	3B	TB	Longoria will probably bounce back after last year, but he's traditionally overvalued anyway.
45	Christian Yelich	OF	MIA	Yelich's skills translate better in OBP leagues, but he's making steady improvement each season.
46	Carlos Gonzalez	OF	COL	Injuries and now trade rumors have dropped CarGo's price significantly.
47	Hanley Ramirez	SS	BOS	Even though Ramirez is moving to an easier position, it's still a new position and in a tricky venue in Fenway.
48	Yu Darvish	P	TEX	Darvish will likely cost you at least 20 picks less than he did last year, but still could lead the league in strikeouts.
49	Jonathan Lucroy	C	MIL	Lucroy might start more often at first base when the Brewers face left-handers, giving him more at-bats.
50	Yoenis Cespedes	OF	DET	A full season in a better ballpark than Oakland should help Cespedes, though his rookie batting average seems out of reach.
51	Prince Fielder	1B	TEX	Fielder is one of the biggest wildcards in the draft – he could thrive in Texas, or he could never fully return from his neck injury.
52	Rusney Castillo	OF	BOS	Where Castillo hits in the order will have a huge role in his 2015 value – he could score 100 runs.
53	Jordan Zimmermann	P	WAS	Zimmermann is a threat to get dealt due to his contract status and the Nationals' depth in the rotation.
54	Brian Dozier	2B	MIN	Dozier's low batting average is more than countered by his runs, homers, and stolen bases.
55	Adam Wainwright	P	STL	I'm discounting Wainwright due to his elbow scare at the end of season - your mileage may vary.
56	Zack Greinke	P	LA	When he hasn't been involved in brawls, Greinke has been excellent in his two years with the Dodgers.
57	Craig Kimbrel	P	ATL	There's very little if any separation between Kimbrel and Chapman this year.
58	Aroldis Chapman	P	CIN	After Chapman's scary spring training injury, he returned better than ever last year.
59	Jose Reyes	SS	TOR	What happened to Reyes' power? His ISO trend is not encouraging.
60	Starling Marte	OF	PIT	A big final two months made up for a disappointing start - a microcosm of the Pirates' season.
61	Corey Kluber	P	CLE	This might be underselling Kluber, but some regression has to be expected.
62	Kyle Seager	3B	SEA	Seager is the rare Mariners homegrown player to overcome Safeco Field.
63	Marcell Ozuna	OF	MIA	Ozuna made a huge leap forward in 2014, and now has a better lineup around him.
64	Ian Kinsler	2B	DET	Starts off with a base of 15 homers and 15 stolen bases.
65	Jay Bruce	OF	CIN	Bruce was a victim of the shift last year and may never hit for a high batting average again.
66	David Wright	3B	NY-N	Wright's seasons have been all over the map; no doubt his health played a huge role in last year's disappointment.
67	Matt Holliday	OF	STL	Holliday is starting to decline, but so far it's been a gentle slope rather than a cliff.
68	Justin Morneau	1B	COL	Morneau's platoon splits and the threat of getting traded depress his ranking some.
69	Julio Teheran	P	ATL	Teheran falls just short of the first-tier starters, but leads off the next level.
70	Jon Lester	P	CHI-N	Lester should thrive in the NL, though the NL Central quietly has become very competitive.
71	Joey Votto	1B	CIN	Will Votto's power ever return, or is his knee so damaged that he's a different player now?
72	Greg Holland	P	KC	Holland could simultaneously be the AL's best closer and his team's second-best reliever.
73	Dellin Betances	P	NY-A	Now a full-time closer, how much will Betances' workload decrease?
74	Jason Heyward	OF	STL	Heyward's new ballpark won't necessarily help him, but changing organizations might do him some good.
75	Kenley Jansen	P	LA	Jansen's maddening early-season stretch last year keeps him a notch below the top-four closers.
76	Yan Gomes	C	CLE	Gomes held up pretty well as the Indians' full-time catcher.
77	Matt Carpenter	3B	STL	Carpenter is a run-scoring, on-base machine, yet the Cardinals are dabbling with the idea of moving him down in the order.
78	Kole Calhoun	OF	ANA	Calhoun could score a ton of runs batting at the top of the Angels' lineup.
79	Cole Hamels	P	PHI	If the Phillies really commit to rebuilding, they could command a mint by trading Hamels.
80	David Ortiz	DH	BOS	On one hand, Ortiz still hit 35 homers in 2014, but on the other his batting average dropped precipitously.
81	Chris Carter	DH	HOU	Carter has 50-homer potential; alas, he also has 250-strikeout potential.
82	Sonny Gray	P	OAK	Gray could have great rate stats, but he may get hurt by a lack of run support and hence, fewer wins.
83	Mark Melancon	P	PIT	One could make a pretty good case for putting Melancon in the first tier of closers.
84	Dee Gordon	2B	MIA	Did the Dodgers sell high on Gordon, or can 2014 be repeated?
85	Wilin Rosario	C	COL	There's a legitimate chance that the Rockies either trade Rosario or move him to first base.
86	Jason Kipnis	2B	CLE	Kipnis is one of the tougher calls to make this season, following his 2014 collapse.
87	Doug Fister	P	WAS	Fister really enjoyed pitching in the NL East, which is the prime landing spot for AL crossovers now.
88	Matt Adams	1B	STL	The power breakout hasn't happened yet, but the potential remains.
89	Koji Uehara	P	BOS	Uehara's late-season scuffles and previous durability concerns are worrisome, but the overall numbers were still great.
90	J.D. Martinez	OF	DET	The Tigers have a lot riding on Martinez being able to sustain his 2014 breakout.
91	Melky Cabrera	OF	CHI-A	Landed in a good spot in Chicago.
92	Billy Hamilton	OF	CIN	Hamilton's poor second half is really disturbing - have NL pitchers figured him out?
93	Alex Cobb	P	TB	Cobb has the sort of upside to ultimately be a first-tier starter, but you won't have to pay that price in 2015.
94	Masahiro Tanaka	P	NY-A	Tanaka is expected to be ready for the start of the season, but will he be able to ultimately avoid surgery?
95	Nelson Cruz	OF	SEA	Seattle will probably regret giving Cruz four years, but even Richie Sexson had two good years there.
96	David Robertson	P	CHI-A	Robertson was a priority for the White Sox, who were killed by their bullpen last year.
97	Mike Fiers	P	MIL	Fiers doesn't throw hard, yet he still has a fantastic strikeout rate. Good sleeper potential.
98	Nolan Arenado	3B	COL	Could eventually be a monster in Coors Field, but don't expect 30 homers this year.
99	Cody Allen	P	CLE	Allen's ascent was foreseeable, but the magnitude of his success might surprise some.
100	Carlos Santana	1B, 3B	CLE	The Indians probably won't spend much time with Santana at 3B, but enjoy the eligibility this year.
101	Steve Cishek	P	MIA	Cishek is great, and now his team is worthy of making him a potential top-10 closer.
102	Alexei Ramirez	SS	CHI-A	Ramirez is never the guy you're excited to draft, but he's really functional in 5x5 formats.
103	Lucas Duda	1B	NY-N	Duda really benefited from sticking at first base, rather than having to split time in the outfield.
104	Khris Davis	OF	MIL	Davis can help you in many categories, but his lack of patience at the plate is disturbing.
105	Jayson Werth	OF	WAS	Werth had arthroscopic shoulder surgery in January and could miss the start of the season.
106	Alex Gordon	OF	KC	Gordon might miss the beginning of the season because of an offseason wrist operation.
107	Ryan Zimmerman	3B, OF	WAS	Zimmerman will play exclusively at first base this season.
108	Brett Gardner	OF	NY-A	Gardner underwent surgery for a sports hernia/core muscle injury in November.
109	Pablo Sandoval	3B	BOS	Sandoval doesn't really have the DH as a fallback, given that the Red Sox have three other hitters than need the spot.
110	Zach Britton	P	BAL	Britton isn't a flamethrower like most of the top closers out there, but his ascension to the role last year was tremendous.
111	Eric Hosmer	1B	KC	Would the real Eric Hosmer please stand up?
112	Brandon Belt	1B	SF	Fluky injuries prevented the big breakout season for Belt that appeared imminent.
113	Gerrit Cole	P	PIT	Cole spent some time on the DL, hence our cautious ranking, but he finished the season strong.
114	Joc Pederson	OF	LA	Pederson is the early frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year now that the CF job appears to be his.
115	Daniel Murphy	2B	NY-N	Murphy has three double-digit SB seasons in a row.
116	Dustin Pedroia	2B	BOS	Pedroia just can never stay healthy, and there's some doubt that he'll ever hit for power again.
117	Leonys Martin	OF	TEX	Is there another level for Martin, or is this as good as it gets?
118	Kris Bryant	3B	CHI-N	When the Cubs decide to call up Bryant will foreshadow just how serious they are about contending this year.
119	Howie Kendrick	2B	LA	Kendrick never became a star, but he's an above-average regular at a scarce position.
120	Neil Walker	2B	PIT	2014 was Walker's big breakout year - what can he do for an encore?
121	Salvador Perez	C	KC	Less is more - the Royals need to find a way to rest Perez more often.
122	Charlie Blackmon	OF	COL	Blackmon could lose some playing time to Drew Stubbs, but at least he's on the good side of the platoon.
123	Brian McCann	C	NY-A	McCann is yet another hitter that was really hurt by defensive shifts, and also by a drop in his walk rate.
124	Devin Mesoraco	C	CIN	Surprisingly, much of Mesoraco's power came against right-handers, counter to his early experience as a pro.
125	Shin-Soo Choo	OF	TEX	If healthy, Choo could score 100+ runs - but health is not a given.
126	Michael Pineda	P	NY-A	Amazing numbers whenever he's healthy enough to pitch, but therein lies the rub.
127	Jeff Samardzija	P	CHI-A	The Shark might not like his new tank.
128	Yadier Molina	C	STL	Molina won't approach 20 homers again, but his batting average should rebound close to .300.
129	Manny Machado	3B	BAL	Because he was hurt so much in 2014, Machado might actually be under the radar in drafts this year.
130	Ben Revere	OF	PHI	The Phillies aren't necessarily enamored with Revere, but they've traded away all potential competition.
131	Alex Wood	P	ATL	After all of the Braves' offseason moves, Wood will finally be left alone to stay in the rotation.
132	A.J. Pollock	OF	AZ	Pollock was on the cusp of making a big splash before his thumb injury - good breakout potential this year.
133	Chris Archer	P	TB	Archer isn't quite a finished product yet, but the future appears to be bright.
134	Mark Trumbo	1B, OF	AZ	Now aspires to be Chris Carter.
135	Yasmany Tomas	OF	AZ	The Diamondbacks might opt to play Tomas at third base rather than in the outfield.
136	Tanner Roark	P	WAS	Roark gets overlooked among the Nats' starters because he doesn't strike out many, but I'm a believer.
137	Sean Doolittle	P	OAK	Doolittle's last name describes his role for the first eight innings of the game.
138	Adam LaRoche	1B	CHI-A	LaRoche will hopefully work out better for the White Sox than the last time they signed a Nats first baseman.
139	Wil Myers	OF	SD	My willingness to write-off 2014 as a fluke dissipated once Myers was traded to the Padres.
140	Jake Arrieta	P	CHI-N	Arrieta blossomed once he changed organizations and could use his cutter again.
141	Alex Rios	OF	KC	Where did Rios' power go? He's unlikely to find it in Kansas City.
142	Evan Gattis	C	HOU	Traded to the Astros the day after we sent the magazine off to the printer. They will likely use him in LF.
143	Michael Cuddyer	OF	NY-N	Cuddyer is such a Mets-type of signing - going along with Curtis Granderson last year.
144	Lance Lynn	P	STL	Lynn doesn't always follow form - threw a gem at Coors, followed by a blowup at Dodger Stadium last year.
145	Jacob deGrom	P	NY-N	Of all the hyped prospects in the Mets' system, it was a surprise to see deGrom win the ROY.
146	Mat Latos	P	MIA	The trade to Miami is a homecoming for Latos, who should benefit from the park change.
147	Yordano Ventura	P	KC	Ventura's strikeout rate hasn't yet tracked with his amazing velocity.
148	Hisashi Iwakuma	P	SEA	Two great years in a row, but man that September was scary.
149	Zack Wheeler	P	NY-N	Someday Wheeler will strike out 220 batters and I want to be there when it happens.
150	Trevor Rosenthal	P	STL	Rosenthal was worked hard early and lost his command late - still has top-five closer potential.
151	Collin McHugh	P	HOU	McHugh finally escaped extreme hitters' parks that limited his great curveball, with fantastic results.
152	Aramis Ramirez	3B	MIL	Ramirez reverted to his injury-prone form in 2014.
153	Ben Zobrist	2B, SS, OF	OAK	Will Billy Beane flip Zobrist midseason? Magic 8-Ball says it's very likely.
154	Elvis Andrus	SS	TEX	Sometimes what you see is what you get - that appears to be the case with Andrus.
155	Billy Butler	1B	OAK	Butler played enough games at first base to qualify there this year.
156	Drew Smyly	P	TB	A few mechanical tweaks after the trade paid immediate dividends for the Rays.
157	Javier Baez	2B, SS	CHI-N	Baez has continued his whiff-tastic ways in winter ball - this may take a while.
158	John Lackey	P	STL	It'll be interesting to see how Lackey plays out with the Cardinals given his contract.
159	Matt Shoemaker	P	ANA	Shoemaker is a little difficult to buy into, given how he came out of nowhere last year.
160	Martin Prado	3B, 2B	MIA	For a player that's described as an essential 'glue guy,' Prado sure gets traded a lot.
161	Cliff Lee	P	PHI	Lee's velocity readings in spring will be one of the items worth paying attention to.
162	Tyson Ross	P	SD	Ross finished the season with a flexor strain in his forearm, otherwise he would be higher in the rankings.
163	Matt Wieters	C	BAL	Wieters is coming back from Tommy John surgery - thus spring training will be important for him.
164	Wilson Ramos	C	WAS	Ramos has 25-homer potential in a full season, but his plate discipline regressed badly in 2014.
165	Adam Eaton	OF	CHI-A	Eaton could be a run-scoring machine, but first he needs to make it through a full season without getting hurt.
166	Chase Utley	2B	PHI	Utley doesn't want to be traded, despite the Phillies beginning their rebuilding process.
167	Chase Headley	3B	NY-A	Headley finally gets a full season in a good hitters' park after re-signing with the Yankees.
168	Carlos Carrasco	P	CLE	Carrasco really turned the corner, but there's some concern about 2014 being a small-sample-size fluke.
169	Jorge Soler	OF	CHI-N	The Cubs might contend a lot sooner than others think, and Soler is a big reason why.
170	Lorenzo Cain	OF	KC	A number of Royals improved their stock in September and the playoffs, Cain being a big mover.
171	Carlos Beltran	OF	NY-A	Does Beltran have a dead-cat bounce in him?
172	Matt Harvey	P	NY-N	The Mets want to keep Harvey under 200 innings this year.
173	Anibal Sanchez	P	DET	Sanchez has the potential to notch 200 strikeouts, but also has the potential to miss half his starts.
174	Gregory Polanco	OF	PIT	Because his rookie year was mediocre, you can price in Polanco's breakout at a discounted rate this year.
175	Drew Storen	P	WAS	Storen is ready to assume the reins as the closer again, but Matt Williams' fickleness tempers my enthusiasm.
176	James Shields	P	FA	Where Shields lands is a big driver of his value, given his flyball tendencies.
177	Brandon Moss	1B, OF	CLE	Going to Cleveland should help in terms of ballparks, but Moss' hip is a big concern.
178	Scooter Gennett	2B	MIL	Gennett has the second base job to himself this year in Milwaukee.
179	Coco Crisp	OF	OAK	Crisp is starting to run less often, which makes sense given how frequently he's been getting hurt.
180	Phil Hughes	P	MIN	Hughes' skill set and his ballpark were a perfect match.
181	Kyle Lohse	P	MIL	While a 3.50 ERA isn't what it used to be, Lohse has four consecutive seasons of 3.54 or better.
182	Denard Span	OF	WAS	Span had surgery for a sports hernia in December, but is expected to be ready for spring training.
183	Jonathan Papelbon	P	PHI	As much as Ruben Amaro Jr.'s deals deserve mocking, Papelbon actually has worked out well.
184	Oswaldo Arcia	OF	MIN	Arcia was dealing with a tendon issue in his hand in winter ball - watch the spring training reports closely.
185	Hyun-Jin Ryu	P	LA	Ryu would rate higher but for the shoulder weakness he had down the stretch in 2014.
186	Huston Street	P	ANA	It's funny how the Angels' bullpen went from a complete liability to a total strength in 2014.
187	Aaron Sanchez	P	TOR	Sanchez currently is the Blue Jays' closer - but be a little wary of his walk rate.
188	Jordy Mercer	SS	PIT	Quietly, Mercer has 15-20 homer potential.
189	Jimmy Rollins	SS	LA	Rollins joins a better lineup in exchange for a lesser ballpark for his twilight seasons.
190	Mike Zunino	C	SEA	Zunino is yet another catcher that trades off batting average for power.
191	Alcides Escobar	SS	KC	Escobar hit .328 in September to finish with a respectable batting average to go with his steals.
192	Rougned Odor	2B	TEX	Odor was really impressive in the second half, given his age and lack of experience.
193	Danny Santana	SS, OF	MIN	The Twins intend for Santana to start spring training in the infield.
194	Glen Perkins	P	MIN	Perkins finished the season shut down due to nerve irritation in his forearm.
195	Erick Aybar	SS	ANA	Aybar doesn't excel in one category, but provides something in nearly all of them.
196	Michael Wacha	P	STL	On skill alone, Wacha would be higher, but his health and Matheny's handling of him keeps him lower.
197	Starlin Castro	SS	CHI-N	Castro has had a couple of near-brushes with the law but appears to be clear at press time.
198	Marlon Byrd	OF	CIN	The Reds are betting that Byrd's two-year power spike is bankable, at least for one more year.
199	Danny Duffy	P	KC	The Royals treated Duffy with kid gloves in 2014 - how much more do they ask of him in 2015?
200	Kolten Wong	2B	STL	Wong's spot in the batting order is not yet secure - if he bats first or second, move up 50 spots.