DFS Baseball 101: Weak Lineups to Target
DFS Baseball 101: Weak Lineups to Target

Last week, I wrote about value pitchers in DFS, and the group as a whole did very well. Starting pitching has been a mess early this season and it has caused fantasy baseball owners to circle the wagons on how to approach it.

This week, let's dig deep into the data and look for teams and situations that are good matchups for starting pitchers. Taking starting pitchers at home against the weakest lineups is the safest play in DFS baseball (home pitchers average 23.2 points per game, while road pitchers average 17.0), but things change, so you need to track starting lineups to find the weakest.

Ten teams stand out as significantly worse offensively than the rest of the league: Tigers, Marlins, Royals, Reds, Indians, Giants, Padres, Rockies, Pirates and Angels.

Use Home Pitchers Against these Teams

Tigers

The best starting pitching scenario this year is facing the Tigers when they are on the road.  Starting pitchers average 23.2 against them. Of nine road games, eight have gone under the total (straight to start the season) and only one over. The Tigers have scored 19 runs in nine road games (2.1 average runs). In the nine starts, pitchers have averaged 23.23 points per game.  In seven of nine games, pitchers averaged at least 20 points per game.  They have a major-league low of 11 home runs. No one else has less than 16.

Marlins

In six games, opposing pitchers at home have averaged 21.8 points per game against the Marlins.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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