34-Year-Old Pitcher – Toronto Blue Jays
2018 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Regression doesn’t punch a time clock. Sometimes it takes weeks, sometimes months, and occasionally it waits years to rear its ugly head. For the past few seasons, Estrada has registered a BABIP well ...
Marco Estrada Contract Information:
Signed a one-year, $3.9 million contract with the Blue Jays in January of 2015, avoiding arbitration.
Estrada (4-6) picked up the win in Saturday's 2-0 victory over the Nationals, giving up three hits and two walks over 6.2 scoreless innings while striking out four.
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|Next 7 Days||Subscribe now to see our Next 7 Days projections for Marco Estrada|
|Rest Of Season||Subscribe now to see our Rest Of Season projections for Marco Estrada|
|Preseason||Subscribe now to see our 2018 projections for Marco Estrada||3-Year Averages||32||30||0||181.0||150||78||26||157||63||10||8||0||0||0||3.88||1.18|
|Career (View All)||264||175||0||1,161.3||1,029||528||177||1,041||357||59||58||0||–||–||4.09||1.19|
Age is determined on July 1st of each season. Jump To: ▼ Advanced StatsNo No No
|Last 14 Games (Team)
3 Games Pitched: Avg. 6.2 IP/G
|Last 30 Games (Team)
6 Games Pitched: Avg. 5.6 IP/G
|Last 60 Games (Team)
12 Games Pitched: Avg. 5.4 IP/G
Marco Estrada Split Stats (View Full Split Stats)
|Year||Age||Lg||Tm||G||GS||IP||K/9||BB/9||K/BB||HR/9||GB/FB Ratio||Strand %||Fastball||ERA||FIP||BABIP|
|Next 7 Days||0||1||5.9||7.89||3.70||2.13||1.46||–||73.5%||–||4.16||4.79||.271|
|Rest Of Season||0||18||104.9||8.05||3.11||2.59||1.40||–||70.5%||–||4.25||4.47||.275|
|Preseason||Subscribe now to see our 2018 projections for Marco Estrada||3-Year Averages||32||30||181.0||7.81||3.13||2.49||1.29||–||72.2%||–||3.88||4.38||.260|
Marco Estrada Defensive Stats
|Pos||Year||Inn||DRS (?)||Pos Rank||Range & Pos (?)||OF Arm (?)||GFP/DME (?)||GDP (?)||Bunts (?)||Catcher SB (?)||Pitcher SB (?)||Adj ERA (?)||Strike Zone(?)|
2018 Stat Review for Marco Estrada As compared to the top 100 starting pitchers in 2016 (min 130 in)
A collection of stats that measure different skills.
A few general measures of a pitcher's effectiveness.
Balls in play avg. and % of runners left stranded.
Toronto Blue Jays Roster
MajorsAxford, John (P)
AABichette, Bo (SS)
A+Adams, Riley (C)
AAnderson, Jacob (OF)
Marco Estrada: Past News Updates ( ▲ View most recent update )
RotoWire's Preseason Outlooks
Estrada finished with strong ratios last season despite a back issue which lingered throughout much of the campaign and a lack of run support. The vaunted Jays' offense provided just 3.93 runs of support over Estrada's career-high 29 starts; 58th out of all 74 qualified starters in MLB. In 2016, Estrada's average fastball (88.1 mph) dipped more than a tick from his previous season, but he still managed a strong 8.4 K/9, his best mark since 2012 with Milwaukee. His 4.20 FIP suggests Estrada may have overachieved in the ratio categories, but he has outperformed his ERA indicators in each of the past three seasons and his low BABIPs have been supported by relatively high weak contact rates. Estrada's still a heavy flyball pitcher, though, and thus home runs remain an issue, and his walk rate last year was his highest since he became a full-time starter. But the sum of the parts is enough to allow Estrada to maintain above-average fantasy appeal.
Estrada was a home run machine moving from one already-hard ballpark to an even harder one in the toughest ballpark division of the more difficult league. How could this work? Well, a .216 BABIP and 79 percent strand rate helped. Just because those marks are primed for regression doesn't mean he didn't influence them. His career track record simply doesn't suggest that the same confluence of events will come together the same way in 2016. He succeeds with a rising fastball and plus changeup combo that induces loads of weak in-air contact, which drives his .261 career BABIP. The declining strikeout rate is a bummer from a fantasy standpoint, but it's never been his key to success. Since the start of 2012, his WHIP is 13th-best among 169 qualified starters, so he will supply value there. When factoring in an ERA rise, look more to his 2012-2013 for guidance (3.75) as opposed to 2014 (4.36).
Estrada spent two years and most of 2014 as a starter with the Brewers, but he was moved to the bullpen last July after giving up 27 home runs in 18 starts. He fared better in relief, giving up just two home runs and giving up zero runs in 10 September appearances. Estrada does not possess dominant stuff and gets by mainly on deception, but the Blue Jays decided to pick him up in an offseason trade for Adam Lind. He will get a shot to compete for a starting spot during spring training, but may be better suited for the bullpen, and the move to another park that punishes flyball tendencies will present another challenge for Estrada.
Estrada owned a 5.32 ERA when he landed on the disabled list in June, but he posted a 2.15 ERA over his final nine starts to finish with respectable numbers for the third straight year. He didn't have a normal spring training thanks to his participation in the WBC, so he should benefit from a regular schedule this year. Estrada throws strikes and has punched out nearly a batter per inning for his career, but he has also had some trouble keeping the ball in the park. Even if the Brewers add another starter, Estrada is a good bet to open the season with a spot in the rotation.
After being little more than a swing pitcher for the Brewers the previous two seasons, Estrada emerged as one of the team's best starters in 2012. In 23 starts - after having never made more than seven in a season - Estrada posted a 3.64 ERA and stellar 143:29 K:BB ratio over 138.1 innings. Estrada was tagged for a lot of home runs early last season, but he gave up just two over the season's final two months. If he can limit the long ball, he could come close to matching last season's production.
Estrada was impressive early in 2011 as a rotation replacement for the injured Zack Greinke. His numbers fell off when used as a reliever and he finished with a 4.08 ERA in 92.2 innings. Estrada has very good strikeout and walk rates, but has always been bitten by the long ball. He will likely work as a long reliever and possible injury replacement in the rotation during 2012.
After a solid season in the Triple-A rotation, Estrada got a brief look in the majors at the end of the season but once again didn't exactly set the world on fire, which isn't that surprising given his mediocre repertoire and lack of scouting pedigree. He profiles more as an organizational soldier than a future cog in the Nationals' bullpen machine, big or small, but it's a testament to his strength of will that he's even made it this far.
Estrada struggled in the big league bullpen, but despite starting 25 games in the high minors (with generally pretty good results) his short frame and two-pitch arsenal probably mean it's relief or nothing if he wants to break camp on the 25-man roster. The Nationals' chaotic pitching situation means a back-of-the-rotation spot is a possibility down the road though, and he'd have marginally more value as a starter than as a middle man.