Julio Teheran
Julio Teheran
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Atlanta Braves
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Narrative: Teheran can’t pitch at home. The real story is he struggles against LHB. The home/away splits have been a sample-size artifact, as evidenced by a similar season home and away in 2018. The root of Teheran’s woes is increasingly poor control facing LHB. The last three seasons, his walk rates facing LHB have been 8.3%, 12.8% and 17.5%. Predictably, Teheran’s strikeout rates are better versus RHB, though they hit him for more power. An important repercussion of the excessive walks versus LHB is having to work from the less-effective stretch more often. In 2018, Teheran was able to combat the walks with a luck-driven .217 BABIP. The last two seasons, all of Teheran’s expected ERAs cluster in the high-4’s so he’s vulnerable to regress there with a hit rate correction. Let someone else pay for last year’s good fortune. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
Add To Watchlist
$Signed a six-year, $32.5 million contract extension with the Braves in February of 2014. Contract includes $12 million team option ($1 million buyout) for 2020.
Fires six strong in win
PAtlanta Braves
April 14, 2019
Teheran (2-1) yielded one run on six hits and two walks across six innings, taking the win over the Mets. He struck out six batters and allowed a homer.
ANALYSIS
Teheran was terrific Sunday, with J.D. Davis' second-inning homer marking the only run he allowed. The 28-year old righty lowered his ERA to 4.71 in 21 innings alongside a 23:10 K:BB. Teheran has won two consecutive starts for the first time since early May of last season. He'll look to make it three straight on Saturday at Cleveland.
Read More News
Pitching Stats
Loading Pitching Stats...
MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
FantasyDraft
Head2Head
Loading Pitching Game Log...
Minor League Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Loading Minor League Pitching Game Log...
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
Even Split
2019
 
 
-27%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-13%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .230 856 152 127 165 31 7 28
Since 2017vs Right .231 772 184 39 164 27 2 33
2019vs Left .306 42 10 6 11 1 0 0
2019vs Right .222 50 13 4 10 1 0 4
2018vs Left .208 367 65 64 62 11 3 11
2018vs Right .185 357 97 20 60 14 1 15
2017vs Left .241 447 77 57 92 19 4 17
2017vs Right .276 365 74 15 94 12 1 14
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-21%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-80%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-1%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-46%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 4.71 1.36 202.1 8 13 0 8.0 4.1 1.3
Since 2017Away 3.74 1.20 182.2 14 10 0 7.7 3.6 1.5
2019Home 1.64 1.55 11.0 1 0 0 10.6 4.1 0.8
2019Away 8.10 1.40 10.0 1 1 0 9.0 4.5 2.7
2018Home 3.96 1.22 97.2 4 3 0 8.7 4.4 1.1
2018Away 3.92 1.12 78.0 5 6 0 7.8 4.2 1.6
2017Home 5.86 1.49 93.2 3 10 0 7.0 3.8 1.6
2017Away 3.14 1.25 94.2 8 3 0 7.4 3.0 1.3
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Julio Teheran compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
2.30
 
K/9
9.9
 
BB/9
4.3
 
HR/9
1.7
 
Fastball
90.3 mph
 
ERA
4.71
 
WHIP
1.48
 
BABIP
.319
 
GB/FB
1.16
 
Strand %
74.1%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
Loading Advanced Pitching Stats...
Defensive Stats
Loading MLB Defensive Stats...
Stats Vs Today's Lineup
Want more matchup stats?
Loading Matchup Stats...
Braves Depth Chart
Our full team depth charts are reserved for RotoWire subscribers.
Subscribe Now
Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Julio Teheran
Oak's Corner: Around the League
4 days ago
Scott Jenstad revisits some of his favorite ballparks and describes the past week in baseball, including Pete Alonso’s red-hot start.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Double the Fun
5 days ago
Todd Zola's weekly pitcher rankings feature a number of solid two-start options, including Washington's Stephen Strasburg, who faces two the league's weakest lineups.
DraftKings MLB: Monday Picks
10 days ago
Christopher Olson suggests that Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon makes for an intriguing play against Julio Teheran and the Braves on Monday.
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Monday Picks
10 days ago
Monday's slate features eight evening games, and Mike Barner delivers his recommendations for building your best Yahoo lineup.
FanDuel MLB: Monday Breakdown
10 days ago
Kevin Payne sees value in picking the resurgent Madison Bumgarner for FanDuel's Monday games.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Teheran was a massive disappointment in 2017, with his strikeout rate falling to 18.6 percent -- his lowest mark in a full season -- and his walk rate jumping to 8.9 percent (from 5.4 percent in 2016). Lefties were always a problem for him, but that was even more true last season, especially at his new home in SunTrust Park (.266/.386/.541, .391 wOBA). Perhaps most troubling was the fact that opposing right-handers -- against whom Teheran had historically had great success -- got to him for a .272/.313/.440 line, coinciding with a decline in the quality of his changeup. He's cheap now compared to where he was going in drafts last spring, but the home park combined with his flyball tendencies, the step back in performance and red flags in his underlying stats make Teheran a risky investment at any price point.
It was a strong rebound effort from Teheran in 2016. He found his control (his walk rate fell to 2013-14 levels) and with less traffic on the bases from free passes, he allowed fewer hits. All of it resulted in a season almost identical to 2014, complete with another All-Star appearance. His fastball works 91-93 mph, but he works it up in the zone which leverages effective velocity and makes it look more like 94-95 mph regularly. Teheran's biggest hurdle remains consistently thwarting lefties. He was awful in 2013, great in 2014, horrific in 2015, and then OK in 2016. It all comes down to the fastball, but it works so well against righties that it seems fixable versus lefties. Three good years out of four from a 26-year-old usually has their stock soaring, but Teheran remains eminently affordable. Slot him in as your third starter and enjoy the number-two upside.
Hearing a Teheran owner talk about his 2015 season, one might think he had a 10.00 ERA in 200 innings. It’s framed as a meltdown when it was just a tough season that further highlights the vagaries of pitching. If anything, it should make us appreciate the consistency of the studs even more. Teheran took his 33 turns, maintained his 2013-14 velocity levels, and missed bats at the same clip as 2014. However, his walk and home run rates spiked as lefties (310-point OPS platoon split) and the road (5.40 ERA) tanked his season. Every pitch regressed in swinging-strike rate against lefties and only three starting pitchers had a higher walk+homer rate (BB+HR/BF) than Teheran’s 15 percent (James Shields “led” the league at 17%). In 2013-14, Teheran was right at average (10%). It’s hard to pinpoint the “why” behind the struggles and there is no guarantee he fixes the issue, but it could just be youth and now his price is too low not to take a chance.
At 24, Teheran has already proven deserving of the ace of staff label in Atlanta. Injuries to Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy in spring training thrust Teheran into the role and the right-hander went on to turn in eight straight quality starts to begin the year, leading to a 2.71 ERA and .224 BAA in the first half of the season. Like many of his teammates, Teheran regressed after the All-Star break, but his strikeout and walk rates remained intact for the most part and he showed great durability, holding up to a 221-inning workload (third-most in NL). He went the distance four times, notching two shutouts and shaved nearly 10 points off his WHIP. Teheran did see his fastball drop in velocity yet again, losing more than a mile per hour off it from 2013, and his .267 BABIP suggests he may have slightly overachieved, but he's already a top-20 pitcher and there's still room to grow.
Teheran struggled mightily at Triple-A Gwinnett in 2012, leading to some second-guessing about his billing as one of the top young pitching prospects in the game. The Braves made Teheran earn the No. 5 starter job last spring, and the right-hander did just that, but he got off to a rough start to the regular season, with a 5.08 ERA in April. Things seemed to click shortly thereafter, as Teheran went on to post outstanding overall numbers as a 22-year-old rookie. While efficiency is an issue -- he made it out of the seventh inning just five times in 30 starts -- Teheran has great command of his pitches (2.2 BB/9) and will likely only get better as he learns how to further handle major league hitters. On the heels of his stellar campaign, Teheran is assured of a rotation spot this time around.
Teheran's detractors have pointed to his lack of a decent breaking pitch and too-straight fastball as reasons why he won’t succeed in a major league rotation. So far he has struggled when in the majors and he had an awful year in Triple-A in 2012, posting a 5.08 ERA and giving up an uncharacteristically high 1.2 HR/9. That was his second go-around in Triple-A and it is not uncommon for players repeating a level they previously dominated to struggle the second year. Teheran still has an amazing changeup and very good control, and was once a top-three pitching prospect for a reason. Don’t give up on him just yet.
Teheran may the top pitching prospect in baseball after having an outstanding season at Triple-A Gwinnett last year at just 20 years old (15-3 with a 2.55 ERA and 122:48 K:BB ratio in 144.2 innings). He wasn't as impressive in his five appearances in the majors (three starts) and his strikeout rate at Triple-A wasn't elite (7.6 K/9IP), but neither should be a major red flag given his young age and minor league track record. Teheran has a mid-90s fastball and plus changeup, along with a baseball IQ rare for his age. He could win a spot in the Atlanta rotation this spring. Even if he begins the season at Triple-A, it won't be long before he's in the Atlanta rotation for the long term.
Teheran may be the best pitching prospect in baseball after moving up three levels and climbing to Double-A last season at age 19. He has a mid-90s fastball and plus changeup, along with a baseball IQ rare for his age. After posting a 1.17 ERA with a 45:10 K:BB ratio at Low-A Rome, he was even more impressive at High-A Myrtle Beach with a 2.98 ERA and 76:13 K:BB ratio in 63.1 innings that included striking out 14 batters in one game. He more than held his own as a 19-year-old at Double-A with a 3.38 ERA and 38:17 K:BB ratio in 40 innings. He'll likely begin the season at Double-A, but a trip to the majors in September isn't out of the question. He could be pitching at the top of Atlanta's rotation before 2013.
A 16-year old with a low-90s heater when he signed with the Braves, Teheran finally started to capitalize on his raw talent last season. He had a 2.68 ERA with a 39:7 K:BB ratio in 43.2 innings in rookie ball and then held his own as an 18-year-old at Low-A Rome with a 28:11 K:BB ratio in 37.2 innings. If he keeps throwing strikes with his low-90s fastball and excellent changeup, he could emerge as a top prospect in 2010.
Teheran's biggest asset is that he threw in the mid-90s as just a 17-year old in rookie ball last season. While his 6.60 ERA was ugly, the 17:4 K:BB ratio in 15 innings shows promise. He was limited to just six appearances due to shoulder issues, so his health is an unknown for 2009. He's pretty raw at this point, but a name to watch the next few years.
More Fantasy News
Haunted by fifth inning
PAtlanta Braves
April 8, 2019
Teheran (1-1) yielded six runs on five hits and three walks in five innings during Monday's win over Colorado. He earned the victory, struck out three batters and gave up two homers.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Whiffs seven
PAtlanta Braves
April 3, 2019
Teheran allowed one earned run on six hits and three walks while striking out seven across five innings Wednesday against the Cubs. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Handed loss in season opener
PAtlanta Braves
March 28, 2019
Teheran (0-1) took the loss after surrendering three runs on four hits and two walks while fanning seven over five innings Thursday against Philadelphia.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Confirmed as Opening Day starter
PAtlanta Braves
March 18, 2019
Teheran was officially named the Braves' Opening Day starter on Monday.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Impressive against Astros
PAtlanta Braves
March 18, 2019
Teheran allowed one run on four hits over five innings while striking out six in Sunday's split-squad game against the Astros.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.