Aroldis Chapman
Aroldis Chapman
31-Year-Old PitcherRP
New York Yankees
2019 Fantasy Outlook
In his age-30 season, Chapman posted the fifth-lowest FIP among qualified relievers (2.09), but there are some yellow flags in the profile. First off, he lost more than a full tick off his fastball. He avoided any issues with the shoulder that cost him time in 2017, but Chapman dealt with a knee injury throughout most of the summer. While he was able to pitch through it for a stretch, Chapman eventually hit the DL and missed a month due to left knee tendinitis. His K-rate leaped a whopping 11 percentage points to 43.9% (his highest since 2014), but Chapman experienced a big uptick in walks. His 14.2% walk rate was the second-highest mark of his career. For close to a decade now, Chapman has succeeded in challenging hitters, but if his fastball continues to trend downward, he gets hit a little bit and has to nibble a little more, the results could suffer in a big way. Keep in mind that the Yankees have alternatives should Chapman struggle. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#81
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$Signed a five-year, $86 million contract with the Yankees in December of 2016.
Notches another save
PNew York Yankees
May 25, 2019
Chapman struck out one and allowed one unearned run on a walk but earned the save in Game 2 of Saturday's doubleheader against the Royals.
ANALYSIS
Chapman was asking for trouble when he issued a four-pitch walk to pinch hitter Billy Hamilton, and he compounded the problem with a throwing error on a pickoff attempt. Hamilton advanced to third base and subsequently scored on a sacrifice fly. The veteran left-hander has a 1.74 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 32:6 K:BB over 20.2 innings and has converted 14-of-15 save chances this season.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-17%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-67%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-1%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-17%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .147 136 59 12 17 3 0 2
Since 2017vs Right .178 369 135 44 57 16 0 4
2019vs Left .067 16 7 1 1 0 0 0
2019vs Right .200 67 25 5 12 2 0 1
2018vs Left .136 55 25 7 6 1 0 0
2018vs Right .135 157 68 23 18 7 0 2
2017vs Left .175 65 27 4 10 2 0 2
2017vs Right .211 145 42 16 27 7 0 1
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-6%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-60%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-24%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-24%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 2.71 0.93 69.2 7 3 37 14.0 3.2 0.6
Since 2017Away 2.56 1.23 52.2 0 1 31 14.7 5.3 0.2
2019Home 2.38 0.79 11.1 0 1 7 13.5 0.8 0.8
2019Away 0.96 1.07 9.1 0 0 7 14.5 4.8 0.0
2018Home 2.73 1.04 29.2 3 0 17 15.2 5.5 0.3
2018Away 2.08 1.06 21.2 0 0 15 17.9 5.0 0.4
2017Home 2.83 0.87 28.2 4 2 13 12.9 1.9 0.9
2017Away 3.74 1.48 21.2 0 1 9 11.6 5.8 0.0
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Stat Review
How does Aroldis Chapman compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 20 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
5.33
 
K/9
13.9
 
BB/9
2.6
 
HR/9
0.4
 
Fastball
97.9 mph
 
ERA
1.74
 
WHIP
0.92
 
BABIP
.313
 
GB/FB
1.91
 
Left On Base
79.5%
 
Exit Velocity
85.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.8%
 
Spin Rate
2488 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
26.2%
 
Swinging Strike
14.7%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Aroldis Chapman
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72 days ago
Scott Jenstad is back for another season and this week he’s discussing his thoughts on the closer market as well as his top draft fades, including Boston’s Andrew Benintendi.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Chapman's return to the Yankees did not go as smoothly as expected in the first year of his five-year, $86 million deal. He finished 2017 with the lowest strikeout rate of his career (12.3 K/9, 32.9 percent) and even lost his job as the closer for a brief stretch during the second half of the season. His removal from the ninth-inning role closely followed a hamstring injury that surfaced around the middle of August. Additionally, he lost more than a month in the first half due to inflammation in his rotator cuff. Looking ahead, there are a few reasons to be encouraged. First, Chapman fanned 41.5 percent of the batters he faced in September, proving that he belonged back in the closer role as the Yankees entered the postseason. Second, he was very effective in the playoffs as well, allowing one earned run in eight innings while finishing with a 16:2 K:BB. Finally, even with the injuries, he didn't lose velocity. Chapman should remain in the top tier of closers entering 2018.
Chapman missed 30 games due to suspension at the outset of 2016 following a domestic violence incident at his home during the offseason. He recorded his first save as a Yankee in his second appearance with the club in early May and proceeded to reel off a stretch with 44 strikeouts in 31.1 innings before he was shipped to the Cubs in July. Chapman immediately became the preferred ninth-inning option in Chicago, and his dominance with the Cubs included a 1.01 ERA and 0.82 WHIP to go with a 46:10 K:BB over 26.2 innings. Despite the time lost with his suspension, Chapman piled up 36 saves in 39 chances, while posting ratios in the neighborhood of his previous career-bests with the Reds in 2012. Now 29, Chapman still lights up the radar gun with triple-digit velocity, while keeping hitters off-balance with his high-80s slider. After returning to the Yankees via free agency, Chapman will be among the first closers off the board on draft day.
Chapman has struck out more than 40 percent of the batters he's faced for four consecutive years now, while walking just 11.9% of the hitters he's faced over the last two years. Opposing hitters have hit below .200 for four years in a row as well. But all of his on-field accomplishments were overshadowed this offseason when the Reds attempted to trade him to the Dodgers, only to see the trade get overturned due to an incident where Chapman was accused of domestic violence. A deal to the Yankees was later completed, and then Chapman was hit with a 30-game suspension from the commissioner's office, which he accepted. This will keep Chapman out until the second week of May, and Andrew Miller will presumably handle the ninth inning until that time. Make sure to discount Chapman at least a couple rounds, but he should still be an elite fantasy reliever when he is finished serving his suspension.
Somehow Chapman found a way to be more dominant in 2014 than he had ever been before. He struck out a record 52.4% of the batters he faced, averaging 100.3 mph on his fastball, a full 2.0 mph faster than in 2013. He did all of that despite the scary spring training head injury that forced him to miss the first five weeks of the season. If Chapman has a weakness, it's his command -- he walked 12.0% of the batters he faced. Chapman is still evolving as a pitcher, too. He added a changeup (throwing it 6.7% of the time) and threw his slider more often (24.5%, as opposed 14.6 in 2013). The only question is how early do you want to take the plunge, and if you do get him, how do you support him with other pitchers?
For the second offseason in a row, Chapman's role hasn't yet been determined. Former manager Dusty Baker was the primary impediment to the plan to move Chapman to the starting rotation (though Chapman himself didn't seem to be sold on the idea -- whether he was always uncertain or whether Baker pushed him in that direction is up for debate), and now that Bryan Price has taken over as the manager, that door remains open. One thing seems likely -- even if Chapman closes, his usage won't be as rigid as it was last season, when often it was "save situation or bust" -- the Reds lost six extra-innings games where Chapman never got into the game. When he got on the mound, Chapman had a few hiccups but was typically dominant again, carrying a 15.8 K/9. His walk rate and home-run rate both trickled upward, and on occasion he struggled with his secondary offerings.
Chapman finished 2012 with a fantastic season as the Reds' closer. The Reds plan to convert Chapman to a starter for 2013 with Jonathan Broxton taking over as closer, but plenty of durability questions remain. He went through a dead-arm period in September despite the Reds taking great pains not to overextend him, plus he was shut down in the fall of 2011 at the Arizona Fall League when the Reds tried to stretch him out. Moreover, there's a pretty good argument that the Reds benefit the most by him pitching so well in high-leverage situations. The transition will be interesting to watch and the Reds plan to cap his innings and have him start between 25-30 games. With his excellent strikeout potential, he should be a very tempting player on draft day.
Chapman's primary issue this upcoming season is the same as it was entering 2011 - what is his role? The Reds wanted to transition him back to a starting role, but he experienced shoulder soreness in the Arizona Fall League after two outings and was shut down for winter, not pitching at all in Puerto Rico after being slated for a starting role there. When Chapman was healthy in 2011, he was dominant, but when he was off a little he was off a lot. The end result was a 71:41 K:BB and a 3.60 ERA over only 50 innings. The Reds absolutely need to find a way to better maximize his value, whether it be as a starter or as a high-leverage reliever. Another year of the same will be a waste of a tremendous asset. He won't be used as a closer, with the Reds signing Ryan Madson to fill that role in January.
What is Chapman's ultimate role with the Reds? Right now he's still in the bullpen, as the top set-up man, but he could either start for the Reds this year or could replace closer Francisco Cordero. Because the Reds already have six viable starter candidates, Chapman is more likely to stick in the bullpen for another year. There's some concern about Chapman's stamina should he transition back to starting, and obviously his velocity won't peak as high if he does get stretched out. Either way, his tremendous fastball (MLB record 105 mph) and slider will continue to wow crowds and confound opposing hitters. He should have value even if he doesn't close or start for the Reds in 2011.
Chapman may be the top international pitching prospect in the world. A lefty with a fastball that's reportedly been clocked at 102 mph, he was viewed as one of Cuba's top players before he defected last July. At age 21, he's seen as having tremendous upside and drew attention from many MLB teams, and eventually signed with the Reds. However, he may need to spend a full season in the minors before he's ready to face major league hitters. In his only test against major league hitters, he had a 5.68 ERA in 6.1 innings for Cuba in the 2009 World Baseball Classic - but did regularly hit 100 mph. He'll battle for a final rotation spot this spring.
More Fantasy News
Gets save against Orioles
PNew York Yankees
May 22, 2019
Chapman picked up the save against the Orioles on Wednesday, working around a walk to post a scoreless ninth inning and preserve the Yankees' 7-5 victory. He struck out one.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out three in save
PNew York Yankees
May 20, 2019
Chapman allowed one walk while striking out three through a scoreless inning to record his 12th save in a 10-7 win over the Orioles on Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Hurls perfect frame
PNew York Yankees
May 18, 2019
Chapman retired all three batters he faced in a 2-1 loss to the Rays on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
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Records two saves
PNew York Yankees
May 15, 2019
Chapman recorded two saves in Wednesday's doubleheader against the Orioles, allowing one hit while striking out four over two scoreless innings.
ANALYSIS
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Nails down ninth save
PNew York Yankees
May 10, 2019
Chapman allowed a hit and struck out two to pick up the save Friday against the Rays.
ANALYSIS
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