Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Nola reached new heights in 2018, putting himself in the Cy Young conversation for the first time during his fourth big-league season. He held onto gains in his fastball velocity and reached career highs in starts (33), innings (212.1) and strikeout rate (27%) while recording a career-low 2.37 ERA. Regression will likely come for Nola to a certain extent, as he beat his FIP by 64 points despite the Phillies having one of the worst defenses in recent memory. He doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals (despite the sort of command-driven profile often associated with that outcome), so his low ERA can be attributed at least in part to a .251 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate. Still, improvements in the Phillies' defense could offset some of the inevitable regression, and he has plenty of room to fall back and still be a very valuable pitcher. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a four-year, $45 million contract extension with the Phillies in February of 2019. Contract includes $16 million team option for 2023.
Fans 12 over six frames
PPhiladelphia Phillies
May 18, 2019
Nola (4-0) earned the win against the Rockies on Saturday by recording 12 strikeouts and allowing one run over six innings. He gave up eight hits and one walk.
ANALYSIS
Nola reached double-digit strikeouts for the first time this season and started with six scoreless innings, but he gave up a triple and a double to start off the seventh, ending his outing. The 25-year-old will carry a 4.47 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and 60:21 K:BB into Thursday's start versus the Cubs.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-4%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-23%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .231 852 216 80 177 34 7 22
Since 2017vs Right .222 905 252 48 186 35 1 22
2019vs Left .333 103 26 12 30 6 2 5
2019vs Right .256 130 34 9 30 3 0 4
2018vs Left .187 416 114 37 70 12 1 9
2018vs Right .207 415 110 21 79 19 1 8
2017vs Left .256 333 76 31 77 16 4 8
2017vs Right .227 360 108 18 77 13 0 10
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-17%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-38%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-3%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-30%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 2.82 1.12 242.2 21 7 0 10.5 2.6 0.9
Since 2017Away 3.41 1.16 190.0 12 10 0 8.7 2.7 0.9
2019Home 3.82 1.59 37.2 2 0 0 10.0 4.1 0.7
2019Away 6.14 1.43 14.2 2 0 0 11.0 2.5 3.7
2018Home 2.34 1.02 111.1 10 2 0 10.6 2.3 0.8
2018Away 2.41 0.92 101.0 7 4 0 8.3 2.6 0.6
2017Home 2.98 1.04 93.2 9 5 0 10.7 2.3 1.1
2017Away 4.24 1.43 74.1 3 6 0 8.8 3.0 0.8
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Stat Review
How does Aaron Nola compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
2.86
 
K/9
10.3
 
BB/9
3.6
 
HR/9
1.5
 
Fastball
92.6 mph
 
ERA
4.47
 
WHIP
1.55
 
BABIP
.368
 
GB/FB
1.63
 
Strand %
76.4%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Aaron Nola
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Justin-credible
3 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's pitching as elder statesman Justin Verlander is still rolling along, right into the top spot in the rankings.
DraftKings MLB: Monday Picks
8 days ago
Christopher Olson delivers his suggestions for a short six-game Monday DraftKings slate.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Strikeouts on Sale in Aisle 5
10 days ago
Todd Zola's weekly pitcher rankings features Chris Sale in the top spot, as the Boston hurler looks to have turned around his season.
DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Picks
14 days ago
Adam Zdroik checks in with his Tuesday DraftKings recommendations, including a Rangers stack against Steven Brault and the Pirates.
FanDuel MLB: Tuesday Breakdown
14 days ago
Chris Bennett looks over Monday's deep evening slate and thinks Tommy Pham and the Rays present intriguing stacking possibilities against Diamondbacks rookie Taylor Clarke in his big-league debut.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
Derailed by an elbow injury in 2016, Nola looked like he could have his development stunted again after a back strain forced him to the DL for about a month early last season. Much to the delight of fantasy owners, Nola returned to action in late May and re-established himself as the Phillies' unquestioned ace, turning in a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB from June onward. With the elbow issues behind him, Nola noticed increased velocity from all three of his offerings last season, supporting his case for remaining a strikeout-per-inning pitcher going forward. As he embarks on his age-25 campaign, Nola won't stand to see much of a bump in his win total unless the Phillies' rebuilding effort takes a quantum leap forward, but with his health sound heading into spring training, he profiles as a strong three-category pillar with some dark-horse Cy Young potential if he can reach 200 innings and/or 200 strikeouts.
Nola entered 2016 with high expectations and delivered early on with a 2.65 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 through his first 12 starts. Things started to go downhill in June as Nola started to struggle with his command and became more hittable. He insisted he was healthy, but by late July it was clear he was not. The velocity on his sinker, which typically sits around 91 mph, was down to 88.3 mph. The Phillies placed him on the disabled list and he was diagnosed with a sprained UCL, which ended his season. Nola received a platelet-rich plasma injection in August and was able to begin a throwing program in late September. There is no guarantee Nola will avoid having surgery, but he made it through his offseason rehab program and will be ready for a normal spring training. He'll be a risky investment given his elbow issue, but he could return significant value if he finds his form from early last season.
When Nola was taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, the expectation was that he would make it to the majors quickly. A little over one year later he was in the majors and became the ace of a very thin Phillies pitching staff. Nola's fastball averages just 90.5 mph, but he has excellent command and keeps hitters off-balance with a sinker, curve and changeup. Nola was really tough on right-handed batters, holding them to a .212 batting average against, but he needs to find an out pitch against lefties as they hit .310 against him. Nola's future is bright but expectations should be somewhat tempered. He does not possess big-time strikeout ability and will pitch for what should be one of the worst teams in the majors this year. Long term, he seems likely to settle in as a solid mid-rotation starter.
Nola, the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, went a combined 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 45:10 K:BB in 55.1 innings between High-A and Double-A after signing with the Phillies in June. Nola commands all three of his pitches very well, mixing a 91-93 mph fastball with sink, a changeup that occasionally flashes as a plus offering, and a slider. His ceiling may not be as high as the other elite starting pitchers in the 2014 draft class, but he presents the highest floor of the bunch and is likely to be the first starter from the class to reach the big leagues, perhaps as soon as this season.
More Fantasy News
Labors in no-decision
PPhiladelphia Phillies
May 13, 2019
Nola lasted just three innings in a no-decision against the Brewers on Monday, giving up three earned runs on five hits, striking out three, and walking three as the Phillies eventually prevailed 7-4.
ANALYSIS
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Strong in win
PPhiladelphia Phillies
May 7, 2019
Nola (3-0) allowed one earned run on three hits and one walk while striking out seven across six innings to earn the win Tuesday against the Cardinals.
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Whiffs six in no-decision
PPhiladelphia Phillies
May 1, 2019
Nola allowed seven hits and three walks while striking out six across 5.2 innings Wednesday against Detroit. He did not factor into the decision.
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Strong start
PPhiladelphia Phillies
April 25, 2019
Nola allowed one earned run on seven hits and a walk while striking out four Thursday against the Marlins. He did not factor into the decision.
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Earns second win
PPhiladelphia Phillies
April 20, 2019
Nola (2-0) allowed three runs on nine hits with nine strikeouts and one walk across 5.2 innings in a victory over the Rockies on Saturday.
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