J.D. Davis
J.D. Davis
26-Year-Old Third Baseman3B
New York Mets
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Davis came to the plate 113 times in 2018 but didn't do much to justify the opportunities, hitting a miserable .175/.248/.223 with just a single home run. Those struggles were completely out of line with his performance in 85 games for Triple-A Fresno, where he hit an excellent .342/.406/.583. Those minor-league numbers could earn him more chances this season, but Davis will turn 26 in late April, so he's running out of time to show something at the big-league level. There are reasons to believe that he could hit better if given a chance this season, as his line was held down by a .233 BABIP, and Statcast's expected slugging percentage was a full 168 points better than his actual number. Still, that would leave him slugging a modest .391, not nearly good enough for a player limited to the corners defensively. A trade to the Mets gives him a slightly clearer path to playing time, but don't expect more than deep-league value. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $561,420 contract with the Astros in March of 2018. Traded to the Mets in January of 2019.
Drills homer in finale
3BNew York Mets
September 30, 2019
Davis went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run in Sunday's 7-6 win over the Braves in 11 innings.
ANALYSIS
Davis wraps up the campaign with 22 home runs and 55 extra-bases in total, with the production coming in just 453 plate appearances. The 26-year-old was a major liability in the field, but the Mets are probably willing to live with his shortcomings in that area moving forward if he can maintain his impeccable form at the dish. He supported his .307/.369/.527 slash line with a 47.7 percent hard-hit rate that placed him in the 93rd percentile of all players with at least 50 batted-ball events, lending some credence to the notion that his performance at the plate can be sustained.
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Batting Stats
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
10
3
17
18
4
7
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
16
8
12
2
2
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+9%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+3%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+38%
OPS vs LHP
2017
 
 
+48%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017vs Left .852 223 37 11 21 1 .286 .350 .502
Since 2017vs Right .780 411 45 16 48 3 .269 .331 .449
2019vs Left .913 155 26 8 17 1 .312 .374 .539
2019vs Right .886 298 39 14 40 2 .305 .366 .520
2018vs Left .568 42 5 0 1 0 .231 .286 .282
2018vs Right .413 71 4 1 4 0 .141 .225 .188
2017vs Left .960 26 6 3 3 0 .217 .308 .652
2017vs Right .647 42 2 1 4 1 .231 .262 .385
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+41%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+52%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+56%
OPS on Road
2017
 
 
+19%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017Home .950 304 46 18 36 3 .313 .368 .582
Since 2017Away .672 330 36 9 33 1 .240 .309 .363
2019Home 1.078 230 39 16 33 2 .354 .413 .665
2019Away .710 223 26 6 24 1 .260 .323 .387
2018Home .348 42 4 0 0 0 .105 .190 .158
2018Away .543 71 5 1 5 0 .215 .282 .262
2017Home .830 32 3 2 3 1 .290 .281 .548
2017Away .697 36 5 2 4 0 .161 .278 .419
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Stat Review
How does J.D. Davis compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.39
 
BB Rate
8.4%
 
K Rate
21.4%
 
BABIP
.355
 
ISO
.220
 
AVG
.307
 
OBP
.369
 
SLG
.527
 
OPS
.895
 
wOBA
.388
 
Exit Velocity
91.3 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
41.8%
 
Barrels/PA
7.1%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
Davis hit just .226 and struck out 29.4 percent of the time in his big-league debut, but wielded so much power (four home runs, .258 ISO) that he was still a league-average hitter (100 wRC+) over 68 plate appearances. Of course, league average won't cut it at an infield corner or at DH for the loaded Astros, and they have superior options at every position he could conceivably handle. Five years ago a player with his power potential could bring back a quality arm in a trade, but now almost every team has a player of Davis' caliber either in their lineup, on their bench or at Triple-A. The Astros are so loaded that not only do they have similar or better options on their bench, but they may even have a better third-base prospect at Triple-A in Colin Moran. Davis slugged .652 with three home runs in 26 MLB plate appearances against southpaws, which is in line with the righty's minor-league production and points to his future role as a bench bat who destroys opposite-handed pitching.
The 75th overall pick in the 2014 draft has always hit in the minor leagues, but his fairly high strikeout rates, below-average defense and a host of superior players ahead of him on Houston's organizational depth chart has led to Davis flying somewhat under the radar. While he has played some outfield and first base in the upper levels of the minors, the bulk of his starts still come at third base, where he has a strong arm and little else. There is no denying he has plus raw power, as he has never posted an ISO lower than .213 as a pro, but the strikeouts and favorable minor-league hitting environments make it difficult to project a high batting average. He might be Mike Napoli at third base, or he might be a Quadruple-A hitter who gets a very brief chance to prove he can hit with the Astros before being relegated back to an organizational depth role.
Davis, the 75th overall pick in 2014, spent last season with High-A Lancaster hitting in the friendly confines of the California League. The 22-year-old third baseman finished the year sixth in the league in home runs (26) and second in RBI (101) while hitting .289 in 120 games with the JetHawks. It will be all about adjustments as he moves up the organizational ladder, as he can get away with a 28.4% strikeout rate in the lower levels of the minors, but that rate could spike once he starts facing Double-A pitchers who can command a breaking ball. Still, the case can be made that the Cal State Fullerton product has already established himself as a top-100 prospect for dynasty leagues.
More Fantasy News
Cranks 21st homer
3BNew York Mets
September 27, 2019
Davis went 2-for-4 with a double and a two-run homer in Friday's win over Atlanta.
ANALYSIS
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Out again Sunday
3BNew York Mets
September 22, 2019
Davis is not in the lineup for Sunday's game against the Reds, according to Tim Healey of Newsday.
ANALYSIS
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Sits again Wednesday
3BNew York Mets
September 18, 2019
Davis sits for the second game in a row Wednesday against the Rockies.
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Retreats to bench
3BNew York Mets
September 17, 2019
Davis isn't starting Tuesday's game against the Rockies, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.
ANALYSIS
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Takes Kershaw deep
3BNew York Mets
September 13, 2019
Davis went 1-for-4 with a solo home run in Friday's loss to the Dodgers.
ANALYSIS
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