Trevor Cahill
Trevor Cahill
31-Year-Old PitcherSP
Los Angeles Angels
2019 Fantasy Outlook
After reviving his career as a reliever in 2016 and showing flashes of utility in 2017, Cahill lowered his ERA by more than one run and BB/9 by more than one walk. The sinkerballer fixed his homer problems, posting another elite groundball rate. He quietly posted a career-high swinging-strike rate (11.7%) by adding better snap to his curveball and refining his changeup to tame lefty hitters. Cahill likely would punch out more batters by getting ahead in counts more and with better sequencing (just a 57.6% first-pitch strike rate). Of course, the injury-prone Cahill missed time with an elbow impingement, an Achilles issue and a muscle problem in his back. He may be a "five and dive" type in a best-case scenario, but that's not the worst thing in the world. Cahill should fill a spot in the Angels' starting rotation in 2019 after signing a one-year deal, and he'll be a candidate to round out a deep-league pitching staff once the higher-upside options are off the board. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $9 million contract with the Angels in December of 2018.
Captures win in relief
PLos Angeles Angels
July 3, 2019
Cahill (3-6) scooped up the win in Tuesday's 9-4 triumph over the Rangers after allowing one run in two innings of relief. He scattered one hit and one walk in the 33-pitch outing and didn't record a strikeout.
ANALYSIS
After starter Jose Suarez ran up his pitch count to 91 through four innings, Cahill was summoned in long relief and was able to limit the damage while the Angels provided him ample run support. The win was Cahill's first since May 10, when he was still a full-time member of the rotation. The Angels will have the uncomfortable task of filling Tyler Skaggs' spot in the rotation Saturday in Houston, and Cahill should find himself among the organization's short list of options. JC Ramirez (elbow) is another candidate to enter the starting ranks if the Angels elect to bring him back from the 60-day injured list this weekend.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-8%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-34%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-13%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-20%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .267 515 108 52 121 32 4 14
Since 2017vs Right .245 611 129 58 132 23 3 28
2019vs Left .333 132 19 8 40 13 2 6
2019vs Right .221 163 31 16 32 5 1 12
2018vs Left .243 211 50 18 46 12 1 3
2018vs Right .212 239 50 23 44 8 1 5
2017vs Left .241 172 39 26 35 7 1 5
2017vs Right .301 209 48 19 56 10 1 11
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-59%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-11%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-71%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-74%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 2.85 1.10 126.1 10 3 0 9.0 3.1 1.3
Since 2017Away 6.87 1.66 135.0 4 10 0 7.3 4.5 1.6
2019Home 6.35 1.52 28.1 1 2 0 8.3 3.8 2.9
2019Away 7.15 1.36 39.0 2 4 0 5.5 2.8 2.1
2018Home 1.84 0.91 63.2 5 1 0 9.3 2.7 0.7
2018Away 6.41 1.58 46.1 2 3 0 6.6 4.3 0.6
2017Home 1.83 1.11 34.1 4 0 0 9.2 3.1 1.0
2017Away 7.07 1.97 49.2 0 3 0 9.4 6.0 2.2
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Stat Review
How does Trevor Cahill compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 70 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.08
 
K/9
6.7
 
BB/9
3.2
 
HR/9
2.4
 
Fastball
91.5 mph
 
ERA
6.82
 
WHIP
1.43
 
BABIP
.279
 
GB/FB
1.29
 
Left On Base
63.6%
 
Exit Velocity
89.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
7.9%
 
Spin Rate
2203 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
40.1%
 
Swinging Strike
9.6%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Cahill was off to a solid start to 2017, but was forced to the disabled list in mid-May with a right shoulder strain. At the time, he had a 3.27 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, supported by an impressive 30 percent strikeout rate, parlaying a 60 percent groundball rate into just three homers allowed in 41.1 frames. Cahill returned to the Padres' rotation on July 4, starting four games before being shipped to the Royals at the July trade deadline. Cahill started three games for Kansas City before control and home-run woes sent him to the bullpen. Cahill continued to struggle with the long ball after a second stint on the DL due to the shoulder, allowing six homers over his final 12 innings. Cahill's future looks to be as a mop-up long reliever, with the occasional spot start. Unless he regains his strikeout dominance with much better control, he's not a fantasy consideration.
Cahill chewed up innings for the Cubs in middle relief in 2016, making 50 appearances and finishing with a 2.47 ERA. Unfortunately, FIP tells a more accurate story, as Cahill sat at 4.35 in that indicator thanks to a 4.8 BB/9 and 0.96 HR/9. Not surprisingly, his ERA at home (2.05) was much better than his numbers on the road (3.34). Even when he showed signs of improvement with his home-run rate in the second half, that growth was accompanied by a lower strikeout rate (7.3 K/9) and still-elevated walk rate (4.0 BB/9). Although his performance graded out as replacement level last season, Cahill's pedigree and that he's relatively new to relief work should lead him into a competition for another 25-man roster spot. However, even though he signed a deal with the Padres, it seems like his days of being anything more than a spot starter are over. One path to further success for Cahill may include throwing more changeups, as opposing hitters hit .096 against his change with a meager .137 slugging percentage in 2016.
Cahill was a starter for most of his first six years in the league, but last year he found himself used mostly as a reliever, first by the Braves, and then by the Cubs, who picked him up in August. In 11 appearances with Chicago, Cahill was outstanding, amassing a 2.12 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 22:5 K:BB. Sure, that was over just 17 innings, but it's the best he's looked in several years, and the Cubs used him six more times in the postseason. He became a free agent after the season, but the Cubs liked what they saw and signed the big righty for another year in their bullpen. He's historically had a poor K/BB — in fact, his 2.25 K/BB last year was the best figure of his career. Again, small sample size, but if he's found something that he can use as a reliever, he could be looking at a second career after declining as a starter.
Once upon a time, Cahill looked like he was developing into a very strong starting pitcher. He logged 32 starts at age-21 and then 30-plus in each of the next three seasons with varying success, while also posting a consistently improving strikeout rate and an elite groundball rate. That mix should usually yield better and better results, but Cahill bottomed out in 2014 and eventually fell out of the rotation altogether. A 9.17 ERA through four starts landed him in the bullpen, where he put together a 3.04 ERA in 15 appearances before getting the Diamondbacks to put him back in the rotation. There he amassed a 5.58 ERA in 69 innings, suggesting that those first four starts may have had some merit. All told, last season's 17 starts of 6.31 ERA are too small of a sample to stick a fork in Cahill, but he's certainly trending in that direction. He'll be given an opportunity to compete for a rotation spot with the Diamondbacks in spring training.
Cahill was a bit of an enigma in 2013. His 3.99 ERA was inflated by a putrid June, in which he allowed 27 earned runs. His BABIP was sky-high that month (.393) and he was dealing with a hip injury which eventually sidelined him for all of July and half of August. However, Cahill posted a 2.80 ERA in his 20 appearances outside of June, and he will have a spot in the rotation as a sinkerballer in the hitter-friendly Chase Field.
With a complete game effort in his final start, Cahill reached the 200-innings mark in his first season with the D-Backs. His ability to induce grounders at a career-best rate (61.2%) with his heavy sinker was beneficial in Chase Field, and the move to the National League helped Cahill push his strikeout rate to 7.0 K/9, his third consecutive season with improvement in that department. Underneath that improvement is a 9.3 percent swinging-strike rate, an indication that the strikeout rate is sustainable and might even increase a bit more during his second season in Arizona. Keep in mind that Cahill is only 25, despite having four full seasons of big league experience under his belt.
Cahill's numbers took a big step back in 2011 on the heels of 2010's breakout, largely fueled by some leveling out of his BABIP figures. His walk and strikeout rates both increased at a nearly identical pace, with his K/9IP rate now on a three-year ascent since joining the A's back in 2009. His groundball rate continues to improve as well, and he'll need every bit of that following his trade to hitter-friendly Arizona in the offseason. While he'll enjoy pitching in the National League and can expect the increased strikeout rates associated with it, his career numbers away from Oakland (263.2 innings, 260 hits, 162:102 K:BB, 32 homers allowed, 4.71 ERA) should provide some caution.
Cahill's breakout season was a huge step forward from his 2009 season, largely attributed to a big reduction in hits allowed, fewer balls leaving the yard and some modest improvements in his command. He still lacks a dominant strikeout rate, fanning just 118 in 196.2 innings and his K:BB rate (118:63) is below average as well. Both figures, while still merely bordering on 'meh', were marked improvements over his 2009 season, but they did regress as the season wore on (55:35 K:BB rate in 101.2 innings after the All-Star break). A small step back wouldn't come as a huge shock, but it's easy to forget he was considered to be equal with Brett Anderson coming up through the A's system before their very divergent 2009 seasons.
Like fellow rookie Brett Anderson, Cahill entered spring training with little experience at the Double-A level but earned a rotation spot with a solid spring. Unfortunately for Cahill, the similarities ended there as Cahill failed to match the success that Anderson showed in his rookie season. Cahill struggled with his command, walking 72 and fanning just 90 in 178.2 innings. Equally disappointing were the 27 home runs allowed, as his ability to keep the ball on the ground was a hallmark of his ascent through the minors. His post All-Star break numbers were nearly identical to his early-season numbers, and he'll continue to struggle until he improves his control. Cahill will be a part of the A's rotation in 2009, but he's not nearly as polished as Anderson at this point.
Cahill figures to pair with Brett Anderson as the next great 1-2 punch at the front of the A's rotation. Cahill continued to pitch well, posting solid numbers (124.1 innings, 76 hits, 136:50 K:BB ratio split between two levels), although his control waned a bit at Double-A (19 walks in 37 innings). That's digging pretty deep to find a flaw, and there's a ton to like here, including a real nice ability to keep the ball on the ground (2.43 G/F rate, five homers allowed in 2008).
More Fantasy News
Back from IL as reliever
PLos Angeles Angels
June 26, 2019
Cahill (elbow) was activated from the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
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Returning from IL on Wednesday
PLos Angeles Angels
Elbow
June 25, 2019
Cahill (elbow) will be activated off the 10-day injured list Wednesday, but it's unclear whether he'll be used as a starter or reliever, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports.
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Bullpen role could await
PLos Angeles Angels
Elbow
June 24, 2019
The Angels have discussed transitioning Cahill (elbow) to a relief role once he's reinstated from the 10-day injured list, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
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Set for rehab start
PLos Angeles Angels
Elbow
June 19, 2019
Cahill (elbow) will make a rehab start Friday with Triple-A Salt Lake, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
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Won't make start this week
PLos Angeles Angels
Elbow
June 19, 2019
Cahill (elbow) tossed another bullpen session Tuesday but isn't on track to rejoin the Angels' rotation for this weekend's three-game series in St. Louis, Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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