Regan's Rumblings: Sleepers to Target

It's hard to believe it is that time of the year again.

Pitchers and catchers have reported. The Vegas over/under win totals are out, and once again my Dodgers are a favorite to go deep into the playoffs for the bazillionth consecutive season. Fantasy draft boards are being set and mock drafts analyzed to see how the public values players headed into 2015.

We will tackle a wide variety of things in this space this year. Of course, leading up to Opening Day, my focus will be on helping you get ready for your drafts. We'll talk sleepers this week, busts the next and then dive into some common and uncommon metrics to help uncover those hidden gems. We can't anticipate everything that will happen, but we'll certainly try.

Looking over last year's numbers, I certainly didn't predict these five things:

•Fernando Rodney leading the league in saves (48)
•Brad Boxberger having a higher strikeout rate (14.9 K/9) than Craig Kimbrel
• Drew Hutchison finishing in the top-20 in strikeouts (184)
•Rick Porcello finishing with more shutouts (3) than Clayton Kershaw (2)
•Michael Brantley and Anthony Rendon both having a higher WAR than Miguel Cabrera and Giancarlo Stanton

Of course, I can't promise I'll nail each of these, but let's look at a few 2015 sleepers covering each position.

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal, LAD - I suspect Grandal will receive close to 120 starts, with A.J. Ellis picking up his scraps. With the departures of Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp, the Dodgers need Grandal's offense more than they need Ellis' supposed intangibles. A 2010 first-round pick of the Reds, Grandal has a career minor-league line of .310/.408/.487. He slugged 15 home runs for the Padres last year, and now 26 and healthy, he could be ready to take that next step, as there is top-10 fantasy catcher potential here. Be wary of these "best shape of their lives" stories, but there may be something to Grandal attributing last year's struggles to his surgically repaired knee. He heads into camp as the team's starting catcher and is coming off a strong September last year -- .291/.408/.519.

Runner-up: Nick Hundley, COL - In 2011, Hundley batted .299/347/.477 for the Padres, but it's been mostly downhill since. The split between Hundley and Wilin Rosario is still unclear, but Hundley is far better defensively, so 300 at-bats is possible, and the new park won't hurt his fantasy numbers.

First Base

Joey Votto, CIN - Once a consensus first-round fantasy pick, we now have Votto ranked as the No. 13 first baseman behind a guy who hit .196 a year ago (Chris Davis) and another who hit three home runs and is coming off neck surgery (Prince Fielder). Votto has received favorable reviews on the injured quad that limited him to just 62 games and six home runs a year ago. This is a guy who posted five consecutive .926-plus OPS seasons, and at 31, he's far from done. His walk and strikeout rates remained at their career averages despite the ailments last year, and I'm banking on a heathy Votto to hit in the .300-25-100 range in 2015.

Runner-up: Brandon Belt, SF - I heavily invested in Belt last year and will probably do so again in 2015. A thumb injury and concussion symptoms limited Belt to 235 PA last year, but he still managed an impressive 12 home runs. To put that in perspective, if you project that home-run rate over 600 PA, that's 31 home runs. Belt surprisingly batted just .233 versus RHP after hitting .290-plus in the prior two seasons, so if he can turn that around and stay healthy, .290-25-100 is possible.

Second Base

Asdrubal Cabrera, TB - It's pretty near a lock that Cabrera will hit about 15 home runs and steal at least 10 bases, but will the average be in the .270s, as it was from 2010-12, or in the .240s, as it was the last two years? With last year's BABIP a career-low .276, I can see .260-.270 this year. He's playing on a one-year deal, and at 29, a strong 2015 could put Cabrera in line for a good-sized contract next winter.

Runner-up: Rougned Odor, TEX - Odor's 2014 numbers were modest at best (.259/.297/.402), but those came at age 20. With that experience under his belt, Odor could be primed for a breakout. Also, Odor batted a solid .296/.345/.481 in September, with a 13:6 K:BB after entering the month with a 58:11 mark. That's real progress.

Shortstop

Jung-Ho Kang, PIT - The Pirates are reportedly going to play Kang all over the field this spring, so we have to conclude that they are prepping him to be a utilityman. He won't unseat Josh Harrison or Neil Walker, but Pedro Alvarez is on a short leash and Jordy Mercer is nothing special. Between the posting fee and Kang's four-year deal, the Pirates are invested to the tune of $16 million, and while a guy with no hands could count the number of successful MLB Korean infielders, they will give him at-bats. Kang's 40 homers last year could translate to 15 stateside given regular at-bats.

Runner-up: Xander Bogaerts, BOS - When viewing Bogaerts' .240/.297/.362 line, keep in mind that he did that in the big leagues at age 21. Signing Stephen Drew and pushing Bogaerts to third base affected his offensive output, but Bogaerts finished relatively strong, batting .313/.317/.490 in September, though he drew just two walks all month. I'm hoping for a breakthrough 2015 now that he's settled in at shortstop with a full season under his belt. He's probably a couple years away from a true breakout, but progress to .270/.330/.420 this yearis certainly possible.

Third Base

Lonnie Chisenhall, CLE - I remember feeling like a genius last year, picking up Chisenhall off waivers in April and seeing him head into July batting .311/.364/.556. He then hit .225 with five home runs the rest of the way, redefining the term "regression to the mean." Figure that his 2015 will be somewhere between the two extreme halves last year, though maybe he pops a few more home runs. I'd guess something in the .280 range with 20 homers.

Runner-up: Nick Castellanos, DET - A top prospect the Tigers actually held onto, Castellanos' first full season in the big leagues offered more downs than ups given his .259/.306/.394 line. Improvement in his 0.26 K/BB should be forthcoming, and we'll probably see a few more home runs, but with this pedigree, a big step forward can't be ruled out either.

Outfield

Adam Eaton, CHW - I might be a bit biased here, as I loved watching Eaton as he was going up through the ranks of the Diamondbacks farm system. I got to see him quite a bit playing for Reno, the year he hit .381 in Triple-A, and I'm not surprised at all that he hit .300/.362/.401 for the White Sox last year. Nor am I surprised he missed another 39 games due to injuries. Eaton turned 26 in December, and if he can manage to play 150 games in a vastly improved lineup, he could score well more than 100 runs with 25 stolen bases.

Wil Myers, SD - It's too early to say Myers is at a crossroads, but it's atypical that highly touted prospects are traded twice before logging 200 career major-league games, but that's what's happened here. When I saw him play last year, I saw a guy who looked out of shape and basically lost at the plate. A drop in his BABIP from .368 to .288 is partly to blame, but his ISO was cut nearly in half, from .185 to .098. The Sophomore Slump lives apparently, and his name is Wil Myers. Myers, though, gets another fresh start, and though the park is less favorable, there's just too much natural talent in his bat.

Dalton Pompey, TOR - Pompey shouldn't have a problem winning the CF battle with Kevin Pillar, but he will still have to hit in March to win it. Across three minor league stops last year, Pompey batted a stellar .317/.392/.469 with 43 stolen bases and nine home runs. We'd like to see more power, but the steals are enticing, and his on-base skills should get Pompey pushed up to at or near the top of the lineup at some point in 2015. He did have a .205 ISO in 43 PA with the Blue Jays last September, so maybe a 10/30 type season this year is reachable.

Runner-up: Desmond Jennings, TB - I resisted the urge to put Melvin Upton Jr. here, so I have to say I'm proud of myself. Jennings' numbers dipped last year, as he stole five fewer bases and hit four fewer home runs than the year before while batting just .244, but I'm stubborn. He's just 28 still, and after battling knee and shoulder injuries last year, it sounds like he's coming to camp healthy in 2015, so perhaps a career year is in order. His 8.2 percent HR/FB rate was a bit low last year, so there is some opportunity. I could see 15 homers and 30 stolen bases with a bump in average to .260.

Starting Pitcher

Matt Cain, SF - I love former stars coming off injuries, as while there is obviously some risk, the payoff could be substantial. Cain is coming off elbow and ankle surgeries that limited him to 15 starts of 4.18 ERA ball a year ago. It is important to note his velocity remained unchanged, as he's averaged 91.2 to 91.6 mph with his fastball the last five seasons. At age 30, Cain should have plenty of gas left in the tank. The numbers tell an interesting story:

The walk rate has trended in the wrong direction, but he's still missing as many bats as ever. More notable, Cain is generating more ground balls but allowed far more home runs. Driving down that HR/FB rate and permitting fewer free passes are both realistic goals and should allow Cain to bring his ERA back under 3.50.

Runners-up: If I look at pitchers outside the RotoWire Top 100, a few jump out as potential bargains. Trevor Bauer couldn't hit the broad side of a barn in his two cups of MLB coffee in 2012-2013, but in 26 starts last year, Bauer posted an improved 3.5 BB/9. With a fastball averaging 94 mph, a breakout is possible, particularly if he continues to refine his control. ... NL-only alert: Tyler Matzek is probably the only Rockies pitcher I will own this year. He finished with a flurry in 2014, posting a 1.34 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his final five starts. I'm sucker for former top-10 overall picks I guess, but I'm intrigued. ... A classic roll-the-dice sort of guy, Cory Luebke has undergone a pair of Tommy John surgeries, but I can't help but think of three things: that park, that new lineup and his 9.9 K/9 in 2011. Maybe a nice DL stash. ... Rubby De La Rosa is already penciled into the Arizona rotation, and perhaps with the move to the NL, this is his year. I'm most intrigued that he averaged 94 mph with the fastball last season. ... The Yovani Gallardo deal paved the way for Jimmy Nelson to join the Brewers' rotation, barring a disastrous spring. A 7.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 14 games for the Brewers last year is just a starting point. He's probably has the most upside on the staff, though I like Mike Fiers as well. ... Tony Cingrani killed me in a couple leagues last year, but if he's truly over his shoulder tendinitis, don't forget 2013's 10.3 K/9. ... The luster has worn off a little, but Taijuan Walker is still just 22 with a fastball in the mid-90s. He should be the fifth starter for the Mariners.

Relief Pitcher

Hector Rondon, CHC - I see Rondon winding up on several of my teams. Sure he's a bit unproven, but the Cubs should be better, and with a fastball that averages nearly 96 mph, Rondon is a threat to top 80 strikeouts. He's already been anointed the closer, and while perhaps a healthy Jason Motte could eventually compete for saves, Rondon appears to have a bit of a long leash. The big key for Rondon is continuing to limit the home-run ball. He allowed just two in 63.1 innings last year, which combined with a solid 2.1 BB/9, allowed Rondon to succeed. He could be the 20th closer off the board but finish in the top 10 by season's end.

Runners-up: "Who are some candidates for saves that I can get off the waiver wire?" That is a question we get a lot around this time of year. He are a few I would monitor: Ken Giles is next in line in Philadelphia should Jonathan Papelbon get traded. With a 12.6 K/9 and 97.1 mph average fastball last year, Giles has top-5 closer stuff. ... Chad Qualls may start the year as Houston's closer, but Luke Gregerson is probably the team's best reliever, so he could usurp the role shortly. ... Can Fernando Rodney really do it again in 2015 being yet another year older? I have my doubts, and I have Danny Farquhar on speed dial. ... LaTroy Hawkins is 42 and planning to retire following this season, and with the Rockies looking like the NL West's doormat, perhaps they will want to look at his potential successor sooner rather than later. Adam Ottavino is probably that guy, not Rex Brothers. ... I'm not sure Neftali Feliz's arm can hold up over the course of a season, making these setup men attractive fantasy targets in deeper leagues: Tanner Scheppers, Shawn Tolleson and Kyuji Fujikawa are next in line in some order. I have the most confidence in Tolleson.