MLB Barometer: Too Close to the Sun

Oh, how the roto gods love to rear their ugly heads and humble us off of our high horses. Prior to starting last week's intro, I debated long and hard whether to actually write about my NFBC teams' recent surges. The jinx went into effect almost immediately.

On Monday morning, I flip-flopped my opinion on Hector Santiago's tough road two-start week and convinced my partner Andrew to put Santiago back in for Mat Latos. The Angels played that morning and I didn't make the lineup switch in time. The results are just as you'd expect – Santiago gem against the Blue Jays in Rogers Centre, while Latos gets blasted for six ER and hits the disabled list.

Wait, there's more. On the Primetime squad, Devon Travis missed the first couple of games, then proceeded to the DL. On Tuesday, our ace Matt Harvey pitched a masterful eight-inning gem, only to lose the win because of our (and his) closer, Jeurys Familia blew the save. I don't claim to be rotodamus, but as Familia was jogging toward the mound, I knew the blown save was imminent. Jacoby Ellsbury injury? Got it. And there's no timetable for his return. And of course there's Yasiel Puig, who had yet another setback with his hamstring. The pain continued with the drubbing of Francisco Liriano, and to add insult to injury, Matt Harvey and his "dead arm" dropped seven ER (a career high) on us to end the week.

Of course, there is no scientific evidence of jinxes, but superstition has and always will be a part of baseball, and as a result, our fantasy game as well. I knew how last week would go the second I brought the proverbial pen to the paper, foreshadowing my own BABIP regression. How we choose to interpret the results is up to us. In this case, I simply chose to focus on all the negatives and ignores the good parts of the week.

On the bright side, I have harnessed the ability to take rough fantasy weeks with a grain of salt – it's all just a part of the game. Also, I'm not the type who throws and breaks his remote controls when things aren't going my way. The fantasy baseball season is a marathon after all. All we can do is keep plugging away and make the best lineup and FAAB decisions we can.

RISERS

Ryan Braun (OF, MLW) – Braun was a polarizing option in the second and third round of February and March drafts. Those who made the investment are looking wise. Braun has been one of the baseball's best hitters and is among the NL leaders in HR and RBI. Five of his 11 home runs have come over the last 10 games and Braun boasts a 1.025 OPS through 24 days in May. One of the baseball's most patient and talented hitters, the biggest issue outside of the PEDs with Braun was always health – most notably his ailing thumb. Braun had not been able to use his top hand the last two years, and with the digit fully healed, he is able to be more consistent with his swing and is beginning to remind the fantasy world of his elite capabilities. The Brewers' offense will soon be boosted by the return of catcher Jonathan Lucroy, and Braun's .272 BA will continue to climb towards his career BA of .305, and perhaps higher.

Mitch Moreland (1B, TEX) – The left-handed hitting first baseman was the subject of some free agent bidding activity over the weekend. Moreland is almost 30 years old and has teased with his power potential over the years. Various injuries have kept Moreland from seeing more than 500 plate appearances in three of five big league seasons, though he did hit 23 home runs two seasons ago. Moreland hit .400 (8-for-20) with two homers last week and should be in position to swat 20-plus again. His strikeout-rate is hovering under 20 percent (17.2% to be exact) through 99 plate appearances and he is hitting .353 against LHP despite the small sample (17 at-bats). Though Moreland has hit anywhere from second to ninth, he primarily hits in the middle of the lineup. As Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo and the rest of the squad has warmed, Moreland should hopefully see more opportunities to drive runners in and surpass his career-high 60 RBI. Moreland has a sweet swing and the power is still in its prime – worth an addition off the waiver wire if he is still available in your league.

A.J. Pollock (OF, ARI) – Though Pollock is out of the lineup more often than D'Backs fans and fantasy owners would like, he certainly makes the most of his opportunities. Pollock is Ellsbury Lite, controlling the basepaths, scoring runs with abandon and flexing the occasional pop – in a surprisingly potent and lively offense. He stole three bases and crossed home plate four times last Wednesday against the Marlins and ended the week with 12 hits in 30 at-bats (.400). Though 75 percent of his at-bats so far have come against RHP, he's been crushing left-handed pitchers to the tune of this sweet slash - .417/.488/.639 and a 1.127 OPS to boot. Hitting second in the lineup in front of MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt should treat Pollock well all year. Now about getting him into the lineup everyday…

Tsuyoshi Wada (SP, CHC) – Wada isn't the most exciting name on waiver lists this weekend, but a nine-strikeout season debut in less than five innings and a Week 8 two-start week surely gives us something to talk about. Wada is a 34 year old southpaw who pitched well a Wrigley last season – 43 IP, 4-1, 2.91 ERA, .214 xBA, 8.4 K/9. New Wada owners shouldn't expect big strikeout numbers – perhaps somewhere around 7.0 to 7.5 per nine innings. Keep in mind that Wada is flyballer who may occasionally get roasted when the wind is blowing out at home. On the plus side, Wada has displayed solid control over the course of his career – in Japan, and both in Triple-A and for the Cubs in his rookie season. He faces a couple of dangerous offenses this week in the Nationals and Royals, but those of us who added him need to roll him out there for his home games. The Cubs' offense should provide lots of run support and opportunities for Wada to rack up wins.

Honorable Mentions:

• Kolten Wong (2B, STL) – Up to .315 with a .365 OBP, with the key to surpassing draft value being the move to leadoff hitter. Hits lefties and righties equally well. Caught stealing 3-of-4 in May, but he will correct it and steals will come in bunches. 20/20 with a .300 average within reach.
• A.J. Burnett (SP, PIT) – Two earned runs or less in each of his nine starts. Struck out 10 batters in his last outing and the ratios (1.37 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) are sizzling. Wish we had more shares.
• Michael Bolsinger (SP, LAD) – Saw his one-hit, eight-strikeout shutout in person this weekend – he was electric. Sub 1.00 ratios are obviously nowhere close to sustainable, but he's in a great situation – favorable home park, excellent run support (most nights) and a bit of a long leash on his rotation spot with the lack of SP depth at Chavez Ravine.
• Brad Ziegler (RP, ARI) – In manager Chip Hale's best interest to just leave Ziegler in as closer. Enrique Burgos is a walk machine (5.3 BB/9) and Addison Reed doesn't have the mental makeup to handle ninth innings. Ziegler has been one of the game's most efficient relievers over the last few years and puts them in the best position to hold ninth inning leads.

• Mike Napoli (1B, BOS) – Streaky power-hitting first baseman led the majors with five home runs last week, though going 8-for-21 (.429) barely raised his season average above the Mendoza Line. A hard player to time and strictly a power play. Could be, ahem will be, hazardous to your BA category.
• Kyle Gibson (SP, MIN) – Lights out on Sunday (8 IP, 8 K, 1 H) but it was against the struggling White Sox. Those strikeouts raised his K/9 to a mere 4.5. A FIP still greater than 4.00 makes us question if the 2.78 ERA is a sustainable range going forward.

FALLERS

Lonnie Chisenhall (3B, CLE) – The Chiz is best known for his 3 HR, 9 RBI performance against the Rangers last June – a game that will go down in DFS history. Through seven weeks of the 2015 season, Chisenhall has barely cleared the numbers he put up in that game. He has been struggling at the plate – hitless in his last 18 at-bats and hitting .206 with a .240 OBP. Chisenhall has taken just six walks this year and has been coming off the bench more often lately. He's only struck out in 14 percent of his at-bats this year, but with below-average pop, no speed and a bottom-third lineup spot when he does play, Chisenhall offers very little in fantasy leagues. Feel free to drop him for Jake Lamb (ARI) if that's an option in your league.

Billy Hamilton (OF, CIN) – Hamilton loses much of his value with a demotion off the Reds' leadoff spot. Though Zack Cozart and Brandon Phillips have not fared well batting first either, Hamilton's results there were flat out abysmal - .212/.264/.336 with just 22 runs and 6 RBI in 137 at-bats. He may be the fastest player in the league, but Hamilton does not hit well nor get on base often enough, relegating him to one-trick (category) pony status. Hamilton was selected within the first 50 picks, on average, in the NFBC this year and that high draft slot was based on the allure of triple-digit SBs. That selection is proving to be a disappointment early on. One noted improvement is the stolen base percentage – 70 percent last year (56-of-79) and 85 percent (17-of-20) this year. It's clear that Hamilton needs to reclaim his spot atop the Reds' lineup to get back into his owners' good graces, yet even that won't quell the main issue, putting the damn ball in play.

Matt Shoemaker (SP, LAA) – Shoemaker wasn't a heralded prospect coming up in the Angels organization, so the breakout performance as a rookie last year (16 wins, 3.04 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) boosted his spring ADP in a draft range with solid pitchers like Francisco Liriano, Dallas Keuchel and James Paxton. Even with the projected regression, fantasy owners figured they would be in a good position to secure some cheap wins via a power-fueled Angels lineup. But the Angels have yet to really turn it on offensively and Shoemaker has been one of the AL's least reliable starters through the first seven weeks. Shoemaker has pitched only one good game in eight starts – a three-hitter with 7 K in 7 IP in Camden Yards. In the other seven, Shoemaker gave up at least 3 ER per, including the latest 7 ER bruising at the hands (bats) of the Blue Jays. His velocity is down, albeit slightly (less than one mph on the fastball and changeup). With Andrew Heaney pitching well in Triple-A and lurking for a big league rotation spot, Shoemaker will have to figure it out quickly as he faces a couple of tough customers this week in the Padres and Tigers. In one of my NFBC online leagues in need of K's and W's, I contemplated dropping Shoemaker this week, but begrudgingly decided to let him stay on for the potentially fatal two-step. If it doesn't go well, Shoemaker will get the boot quickly – from my teams and yours, and quite possibly the Angels major league club itself. Come on Matt, step your game up.

Yordano Ventura (SP, KC) – Ventura was selected in drafts at an even higher tier than Shoemaker, which exacerbates the situation and even more magnifies his struggles. The man with the 101 mph fastball made great strides on harnessing his control last year and was somewhat of a playoff hero. Expectations for even greater improvements to borderline ace status were definitely polarizing. Fellow colleague Scott Jenstad was not a believer and passed on every opportunity he had to draft Ventura in those mid rounds. Ventura did pitch an unexpected shutout against the Reds last week (7 IP, 6 K, 4 H, 0 BB) but it was sandwiched between starts of allowing four and five earned runs. Ventura's fastball velocity is down 1.5 mph from last season, the strikeouts (6.85 K/9) are subpar and his HR/9 rate is back over the 1.00 mark. Not to mention, the retaliation from the mound issues and an overall immaturity has been affecting his 2015 performance. There is a lot to like here from a skills perspective. Ventura throws out of a great pitchers park for half of his outings and has an incredibly chippy, productive offense to build run support for him. Hopefully Ventura continues to work on the mental part of the game, which will no doubt blend in and help the physical. I'm holding onto Ventura and think he improves his numbers across the board from here on out.

Dishonorable Mentions:

• Kevin Plawecki (C, NYM) – Last week was a doozie, just 2-for-18 (.111) as Plawecki looks lost at the plate. Travis d'Arnaud returning means Plawecki may head back to Triple-A to try to get his groove back. Like the Beastie Boys once said, deeeerop.
• Melky Cabrera (OF, CHW) – Mired in a season-long slump, Melky has hit just one homer and has not attempted a single stolen base. Owners expected more from the usually solid Cabrera – the guy who scored 102 runs in 2011 and followed it up with a .346 and 20 steals in 113 games. This White Sox offense is not one of the best in the league, but they are better than this. Melky, Abreu, Eaton, LaRoche and Avisail Garcia will hit and run wild starting this summer.
• Taijuan Walker (SP, SEA) – The Blue Jays and Orioles are tough matchups, but there goes another two rough outings for Walker (9.1 IP, 8 ER, 8 BB). Walker is relying solely on fastballs, abandoning pitches like the wicked curveball that was an efficient part of his arsenal. I wanted Walker, but missed him in all nine of my drafts simply because of the hype – there was always someone in my drafts who wanted him more. I still think Walker is a 'hold' because of the talent and home park. But that hold should be on your bench for now.
• Brett Cecil (RP, TOR) – We can't blame Cecil for the Blue Jays not providing him with a save opportunity since May 4. Cecil hasn't been awful either – just one run (a homer) allowed in his last nine appearances, so it appears that he is locked in to the job, especially since he's been anointed after losing the job once already in early April. There are two reasons why he may lose the job – he's a lefty and there's a kid who is better named Roberto Osuna. Osuna reminds me of Dellin Betances, and though Osuna is only 20 years old and we've just been through that with Miguel Castro, the Blue Jays brass really like Osuna. Cecil's leash isn't long and it's only a matter of time of Osuna to take it and run with it.

• Howie Kendrick / Adrian Gonzalez (IF, LAD) – The Dodgers' recent scoreless innings slump was their worst in franchise history since 1962. Regression at its sharpest following the incredible collective six week offensive outburst. Kendrick and Gonzalez are two of the best contact hitters in the game, hitting in the middle of a lovely lineup, and both are batting average crown contenders. Nothing to worry about.
• Michael Pineda (SP, NYY) – Beat up in his last two starts (9 ER, 18 H in 11.1 IP), but there is no reason to jump ship. He isn't the guy who struck out 16 two weeks ago either. Pineda falls somewhere in between. And he still has room for growth maturity-wise. Pineda clearly displays signs of losing confidence once the beatings begin. Consistency will continue to be a struggle, but when he's on top of his game, there are few who are more dominant.