Mound Musings: Why Isn't Joe the New Closer?

It seems like every season we see more and more closers lose their jobs at some point during the season. Sometimes it's an injury that forces a change, and perhaps more often, it's a lack of effectiveness that creates an opportunity for another reliever. In some ways it doesn't make much difference why the change took place (it can sometimes make a difference in whether the change will be permanent or not), bottom line is you, as a fantasy owner, need to know who is going to inherit the job, and it's not always easy to determine. Let's take a look and see if we can make figuring it out a bit easier:

The Choice May Seem Obvious, but It Might Be More Complicated

Regular readers know that there are a couple different kinds of analysts. One could be called a numbers cruncher or sabermetric analyst, while the other is typically more of an "old school" scout who bases assessments on what he sees on the field. Today, almost all baseball analysts are a combination of both, and I am no exception, but I would be classified one of the latter by virtually any definition. And, analysis of relief pitching roles is something I believe really needs the eyes on approach in most cases. Here, there are variables that just don't easily lend themselves to quantifiable statistics.

There is always the temptation to look to the primary set-up guy when a closer goes south. That is especially true if the set-up man has enjoyed a considerable amount of success. You just have to remember that being a very reliable set-up man does not automatically translate into being a lock down closer, and even if it might, there are circumstances that might strongly encourage the team to leave that pitcher in his current role. That means fantasy owners will need to think along with the major league team's brain trust, and that isn't always easy.

It seems counter-intuitive, but just like a solid reliever can fail as a starting pitcher, in this age of specialization, relievers aren't always equipped to jump successfully to another role. One of the more familiar scenarios that have come along over the past few years is the lefty or righty specialist – that reliever who typically faces one or two batters each appearance because they are far more effective dealing with a hitter who stands on one side of the plate of the other. Closing is even more complicated. Not only do you have to handle all hitters, you have to have the right mental state, you might be asked to work two, three, or even four days in a row, and you have be resilient to the pressures of almost always having the game on the line with every pitch.

Here are some things to consider when shopping for a new closer

• Head Games: Closers are often rather eccentric. They live on adrenalin – that's often why they are ineffective when asked to pitch in a non-critical situation. We all hate to see our closer get torched when he enters a lopsided game because he "needed the work." Let me further illustrate this factor. How much pressure would a hitter experience if every single at bat was a late inning pinch-hitting appearance with the game on the line? That's the life of a closer. And, when you do blow one, you have to erase it from your mind, and get right back in there the next day. It's not as easy as it sounds. Some players thrive in pinstripes, and others are nervous wrecks. Some pitchers thrive on closing, others not so much.
• Workload Management: This factor is a lot more definable, but it's not always information fantasy owners will have available. Pitchers are human (at least that's the rumor) and they each have their own physical limitations and optimal pitching protocols. Some can pitch multiple innings, but do best with a day or two off between appearances. Others are good for short bursts but experience a drop in pitch quality if asked to throw very many pitches. Teams can manage workload easier when a pitcher is not closing. If he is at his best with at least a day off between outings, he is not a good candidate to close. Even the best closers will only pitch on so many consecutive days, however, when a game is on the line, the manager will want his closer to finish it off whenever possible.
• Good Stuff: Not every closer has dominating stuff. They can't all hit triple digits on the radar gun, but great stuff does make it easier to succeed. Starting pitchers have to pace themselves to some extent. They need to keep a pitch or two in their pocket for the second or third time they face a hitter, and they typically can't let it loose from the first pitch. That's why you frequently see a pitcher's average fastball jump a couple of miles per hour when they move to the pen. That said, its not all about velocity. A closer often has to be able to both step up the power pitching, and keep everything sharp and well-located. The great stuff allows them to survive mistakes, but too many mistakes poorly located is a recipe for disaster. As for the closers without dominating stuff, their success is almost always tied to exceptional abilities related to the other factors listed here.
• Put Away Pitch: If the closer in question had three or four quality pitches he could throw to spots in any count, he would almost assuredly be starting. Top shelf closers often have two pitches, but they are wipeout quality. Perhaps the best example of this factor is Hall-of-Famer Mariano Rivera. Every person in the park knew what he was going to throw on almost every pitch. A cut fastball is usually hittable when a hitter knows it's coming. In Rivera's case, it was literally a put away pitch – here it is, good luck. Because throwing a smorgasbord of pitches is not an option, the elite closers typically have a pitch they can call on when they absolutely, positively, have to end an at bat.
• Splits Matter: Unlike a lefty or righty specialist, a reliable closer needs to routinely handle hitters on both sides of the plate.  There won't be any "face one hitter and hand the ball to the next guy" as the closer you face all comers. Therefore your guy will need weapons to combat any hitter. This is one reason you see fewer left-handed closers. There are more right-handed hitters, and southpaws are somewhat more likely to struggle against them. Like the background related to great stuff, a southpaw closer needs to be competent against righties, and he should destroy left-handed hitters while being exceptional with regard to some of the other factors.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Charlie Morton made his 2015 debut for the Pirates earlier this week, and I liked what I saw. He pounded the zone and kept the ball out of the middle of the plate while inducing 16 groundball outs in seven innings. He had just three strikeouts, but those will come. He's likely worth a look in deeper leagues.
• I also watched Jered Weaver work against the Padres on Monday night. I think he hit 86 mph once. His change-up was mid 70's, and he threw a couple of curves in the high 60's. He was locating well – obviously, since they weren't teeing everything up – but I don't see him enjoying consistent success.
• Miami's Jose Fernandez is scheduled to pitch in extended spring training next week which is a couple of weeks ahead of schedule. His return could obviously have a huge fantasy impact, and if he avoids any setbacks, he could make his 2015 debut sometime in late June. Monitor his rehab progress closely.
• I thought Rick Porcello might experience an uptick in value with the move to Boston. So far, the results have been mixed – a few very good outings, but a handful of implosions to really darken his peripherals. I felt better defense might help, but better defense certainly doesn't help against home runs.
• The Mets say they intend to use a six-man rotation when Dillon Gee return from the disabled list next week. That will probably help reduce workloads on kid-aces Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard (who is quickly getting very comfortable), but won't help their fantasy values. I don't expect that plan to last very long.
• Uh oh.Scott Kazmir left his last start after just three innings, reportedly with a balky shoulder. That is never good news, and hopefully it will be insignificant as Kazmir has truly enjoyed a rebirth of his career. He has looked great.

Endgame Odyssey:

I'll start this section out with a closer who fills all of the requirements mentioned above. Kenley Jansen is back and combines the head, the arm, and the repertoire to define elite closer. I love watching him work. In Texas, Neftali Feliz lost his closer's job, and now he's on the disabled list. So far, Shawn Tolleson has converted his first four save chances, and is showing no signs of looking back. This could be a long term thing. Enrique Burgos had emerged as a possible option to close in Arizona, but he has now hit the disabled list. That should solidify the claim of Brad Ziegler(who has struggled against lefties at times), but I really think Addison Reed will be back once he shows he can get people out consistently. The Cubs' Hector Rondon has struggled a bit of late, and Pedro Strop even snuck in a save. He's probably not in imminent danger, but he is going to need some easy innings to solidify his hold on the job. The end game is getting cloudier in Tampa Bay. On Tuesday, Jake McGee entered the game in the eighth and was scorched for four runs while recording one out. After the Rays came back to tie, Brad Boxberger came on and gave up a run on three hits to take the loss, and was drubbed again on Wednesday. There's a good chance this could turn into a time share until things sort out. The A's have Sean Doolittle back, but his velocity was down in his first outing so they will probably give him some innings before putting him back in the closer's role. Glen Perkins is a very good example of a lefty who has no problem handling the rigors of closing. He is now 18-for-18 in save chances, and right-handers are hitting .175 against him. The right guy is the key to success in the end game.