Minor League Barometer: Year of the Prospect

The year of the prospect is upon us. There have been no shortage of impact phenoms bursting onto the major league scene in 2015. The Cubs led the way to begin the year, with Kris Bryant and Addison Russell both making splashes. The Astros have not been far behind, promoting pitchers Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez from Double-A, while also unleashing arguably baseball's top prospect, Carlos Correa, onto the baseball world. Correa collected his first hit and RBI on Monday, then bashed his first home run the following day. Meanwhile, Texas Rangers slugger Joey Gallo hit a home run and knocked in four runs in his first game in the bigs; Gallo's titanic power cannot be ignored. Likewise, the Mets have seen Noah Syndergaard successfully join youthful rotation mates Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey in what could be a Murderer's Row from a pitching perspective down the road.

Who's got next? The MLB Draft is in the books, but let's focus on some minor leaguers with MLB aspirations.

UPGRADE

Chris Ellis, P, LAA - After a rough start to the season, the 22-year-old Ellis seems to have found his groove. Ellis has a 3.88 ERA and 70:20 K:BB ratio through 62.2 innings for High-A Inland Empire. His numbers are more impressive due to the fact that he is pitching in the extremely hitter-friendly confines of the California League. In two of his last three starts he has failed to allow a single earned run, including a one-hit, seven-inning masterpiece in his last outing. Ellis has an excellent repertoire of pitches; a mid-90s heater with movement, a devastating changeup and an improving curveball. He battled command/control issues in college, and due to his height there are times when he has difficulty repeating his delivery. Still, Ellis has the size and arsenal to become a workhorse for the Angels. The Angels have to like what they've been seeing from Ellis and fellow pitching phenom Sean Newcomb thus far in 2015.

Antonio Senzatela, P, COL - Senzatela has also mastered the California League this season. He'll have to get used to pitching in hitter-friendly parks, though, as his future games will be played in the thin air of Colorado. Though 12 starts, the 20-year-old righty has a 2.22 ERA and 68:17 K:BB ratio. Opposing batters are hitting just .214 against him. The uptick in strikeouts sticks out for Senzatela, who fanned just 89 batters in 144.2 innings at Low-A last season. Still, pitching to contact worked out well for him, as he went 15-2 with a 3.11 ERA. Senzatela is still working on his offspeed pitches, but it appears that they have been improving this season, particularly his slider, which has resulted in many more swings and misses. It is also important to note that he just turned 20 years of age, and the velocity on his fastball comes easily in spite of his size and short, compact motion. He is dominating much older competition, and should his offspeed pitches continue to improve, Senzatela could vault up the Rockies prospect ranks.

Ozhaino Albies, SS, ATL - Albies is a name to file away, as the 18-year-old has done nothing but rake since entering the minors last season. In 57 games at the Rookie Level, the teenager hit a combined .364 with a .446 On-Base Percentage. He had almost as many stolen bases (22) as strikeouts (23). Built in the Jose Altuve mode, the diminutive Albies is currently slashing 323/.383/.415 with 24 RBI and 21 stolen bases through 56 games at Low-A Rome. Albies has been even hotter over his last 10 games, batting an even .500 over that span. The Braves have one of the best defensive shortstops in the game right now in Andrelton Simmons, but Simmons is a career .253 hitter and has 12 stolen bases in his entire big-league career. Now, that's not to say the Braves are unhappy with Simmons, or that Albies will be taking over for him anytime soon. Rather, it is simply to highlight the differences in skill sets for both players. Still, Simmons could be on another squad by the time Albies is ready to hit the big leagues, or Albies could be used as trade bait in the coming years. No matter how you slice it, though, Albies' stock is on the rise.

Rookie Davis, P, NYY - His real name isn't Rookie, but with the way Davis has been pitching this season, he'll eventually become one at the MLB level. William Theron Davis, age 22, was a 14th-round selection of the Bronx Bombers in 2011. After a mediocre 2014 campaign, Rookie decided to scrap the cutter made famous by Mariano Rivera, and instead focus on power pitching. At 6-foot-3, 235-lbs, Davis's best pitch is his fastball. However, his offspeed offerings are emerging, and perhaps most importantly his command has been vastly improved. The numbers at High-A speak to that progression. In 49.2 innings, Davis has a 58:10 K:BB ratio. Davis fanned a career-high 10 batters on May 30, and did not walk a single batter over six shutout frames. His ERA currently sits at 3.26. Davis does not get the pub of other pitching prospects in the Yankees system, but soon he may gain some more notoriety.

CHECK STATUS

Lucas Giolito, P, WAS - The argument could be made that Giolito has the most upside of any pitcher in the minors. From a pure "stuff" perspective, perhaps no pitching prospect draws the rave reviews that Giolito does. After starting the season in extended spring training, Giolito was sent to High-A Potomac, where it was thought he may spend very little time. He's made six starts thus far, and has shown superior control and strikeout potential. In 33.1 innings, the 20-year-old righty has 46 strikeouts and just seven walks. That's not the whole story, though, as Giolito has been surprisingly hittable despite those gaudy numbers. Opposing batters are hitting .284 against him, and Giolito's ERA ballooned to 4.59 after his last start. In that contest, he allowed five runs on a season-high 11 hits. Giolito has allowed five runs in two of his six starts this season. The sample size is small, and the Nationals are being extremely cautious with Giolito. However, it is a bit curious that he could be racking up so many strikeouts while also allowing so many hits.

Tyler Mahle, P, CIN - Mahle's effectiveness comes from his ability to locate his pitches, particularly down in the zone. The 20-year-old righty has posted a 1.79 GO:AO ratio through 12 starts for Low-A Dayton. When Mahle does not keep the ball down, the results are less than ideal. He has allowed six home runs this season already. Still, Mahle has managed to limit the damage overall, notching a 3.00 ERA and 65:11 K:BB ratio in 69 innings. Mahle has the standard fastball/curveball/changeup repertoire. He success comes from his command and ability to mix pitches, not so much from being overpowering. As such, he is not viewed as a future ace, but still has shown enough to possibly become a mid-rotation innings eater for the Reds.

Nellie Rodriguez, 1B, CLE - Rodriguez is a project, but hit 22 home runs and knocked in 88 runs last season at Low-A, where he began the year as a 19-year-old. He'll turn 21 years of age this week, and has been surging recently. Over his last 10 games at High-A, the right-handed slugger is batting .333 with two home runs and seven RBI. Strikeouts remain a concern for Rodriguez, who fanned 142 times in 130 games last season, and has been punched out on 63 occasions in 55 contests in 2015. However, he has been productive in the RBI department over the last two seasons, and he is also not afraid to take a walk. Rodriguez may only be scratching the surface of his potential, but it remains to be seen if he can keep his strikeouts down while elevating his average. He has hit .268 in each of the last two seasons.

Wuilmer Becerra, OF, NYM - In his first taste of full-season baseball, the 20-year-old Becerra is showing intriguing tools. The Venezuelan product has been brought along slowly by the Mets, but is hitting .288 with seven home runs and six stolen bases through 54 games for Low-A Savannah. Any player with the ability to hit 10-15 home runs and swipe 10-15 bases is worth keeping on the radar. The Mets are also hoping that his power will improve as he matures, as Becerra is 6-foot-4, 190-lbs with room to fill out. Becerra is hitting .359 with two home runs, seven RBI and a stolen base over his last 10 contests. He is a ways away from making a big-league impact, but Becerra has significant upside, particularly in the hitting-starved Mets organization.

DOWNGRADE

Yoan Moncada, 2B, BOS - Moncada and fellow Cuban émigré Rusney Castillo have not exactly torn it up for the Red Sox thus far. In all fairness to Moncada, he is just 20 years of age and has barely gotten his feet wet in the minors. He spent most of the beginning of the season in extended spring training getting acclimated to his surroundings. Still, through 16 games at Low-A Greenville, he is slashing just .224/.308/.328 with one home run, five RBI and one stolen base. He has struck out 17 times in 16 games. Moncada signed a $31.5 million contract in the offseason, and many expected him to be able to handle at least High-A or even Double-A upon his entry into the minors. The Red Sox have chosen the conservative route, and that appears to have been the right move. Moncada has incredible bat speed and absurd potential, but he won't be playing at Fenway anytime soon.

Courtney Hawkins, OF, CWS - Drafted on pure athleticism, the physical talent may never translate to elite baseball skills for Hawkins. Hawkins had an impressive spring, hitting .412 with four home runs and 10 RBI in 34 at-bats, and it looked as though he may finally have been turning the corner. The 21-year-old hit 19 home runs in each of the last two seasons, but has not shown outrageous power considering his 6-foot-3, 230-lb frame. He has stolen at least 10 bases in each of the last two seasons, but speed was not supposed to be his forte. However, Hawkins continues to battle contact issues. The most discouraging part of Hawkins' development, or lack thereof, has been his plate discipline. Hawkins fanned an astounding 160 times in 103 games in 2013, and did not show much improvement in 2014, with 143 whiffs in 122 games. In 2015, he has been punched out 63 times in 46 games. Likewise, Hawkins has not hit above .251 in each of the last three seasons. Currently on the Disabled List with an undisclosed injury, Hawkins has mammoth power potential, but strikes out way too much and may not be able to sustain a high enough average to become a serviceable big-leaguer.

Touki Toussaint, P, AZ - The disclaimer here is that Toussaint is just 18 years of age and is several years away from making an impact at the higher levels. That being said, the first-rounder from 2014 was rocked in five starts in the Pioneer league last season, and has been subpar through five starts in 2015. In fact, Toussaint has allowed at least five runs in two of his last three outings. In the other start he walked six batters. This type of erratic behavior is to be expected from a teenager in his first full season of professional baseball, though we have seen some high-profile pitchers come in and dominate right out of the gate (see Julio Urias). Though those pitchers may be the exception and not the rule, Toussaint was the No. 16 overall pick in last year's draft, taken just one pick after the aforementioned Sean Newcomb, who is currently tearing it up for the Halos. Toussaint, meanwhile, remains a project with control issues.

Albert Almora, OF, CHC - Almora hasn't played terribly, but he has been overshadowed by teammate Kyle Schwarber at this level. Almora also may end up being a better actual baseball player than fantasy commodity. Almora has not had more than nine home runs in any season since entering the minors in 2012. He has not had more than six stolen bases in any one season over that time period as well. Since his 2013 campaign when he hit .329, Almora has not hit above .283 at any level. He does not strike out a ton, but also doesn't draw many walks. Currently, Almora is slashing .251/.293/.337 with two home runs, 15 RBI and three stolen bases. Furthermore, Almora's best tool appears to be his defense, which is largely irrelevant for fantasy purposes. As a result, while Almora may be the centerfielder of the future for the Cubbies, his ceiling from a fantasy perspective is not anywhere close to the rest of the more notable phenoms in Chicago.