Mound Musings: He's a Keeper!

So, are you in the hunt for a title, or have you moved into the "wait 'til next year' mode? Obviously, it's great to be in a pennant race, but if you play in a keeper or dynasty league and your season in 2015 hasn't gone as planned, there are plenty of opportunities to get creative in your plans for next season. That will be our focus this week -- targeting pitchers to build around in 2016. You probably have a couple of expiring contracts, or contracts on players that would make protecting them problematic. Conversely, those owners in the hunt are probably willing to part with young, inexpensive talent, to boost their lineup for September. It's Major League baseball right there on your computer screen. The trick is to identify and target good contracts and pitchers likely to take a step forward next year. Let's see who tops the list of pitchers who are establishing themselves as players to keep:

Noah Syndergaard (Mets) - The Mets will welcome back Zack Wheeler in 2016, joining Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and our boy "Thor" in one of the best young rotations in recent memory. Let me say right here, I am a HUGE Harvey fan, but I think there is a possibility he could end up being second fiddle in that amazing rotation. Syndergaard has that kind of ceiling. Looking at his overall peripherals this year, he has posted a solid 1.14 WHIP and a good 3.17 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning, but those numbers don't really tell the whole story. To begin, he is 0-5 with a 1.62 WHIP and an ugly 5.05 in his road starts (I'll leave thoughts of what his numbers look like at home to your imagination). He has been a little unlucky in BABIP, he has served up a few too many untimely home runs, and his secondary stuff is still a little inconsistent, but his stuff can be overwhelming with a fastball that averages 97 mph (and hits triple digits at times) and wicked breaking stuff. It's not really unusual for a pitcher to fare better at home -- especially in a pitcher-friendly home park -- but Syndergaard's stuff is far too good for that massive differential to continue. The sky is the limit (or maybe not) with him.

Kevin Gausman (Orioles) - You've heard it all before. I may be the biggest Gausman booster in the analyst pool, and I remain solidly convinced he will soon bloom into a true top-of-the-rotation starter. I adamantly oppose how the Orioles handled him this season. In the rotation, in the bullpen, up with the big club, down in Triple-A, rinse and repeat. Gausman has an excellent mid-90s fastball that can pretty easily sneak up close to triple digits, and he has a quality breaking ball with a decent and still improving change. The fastball is clearly the payoff pitch, but the others are easily good enough to keep the opposition honest. Gausman still loses his release point at times, but his motion is repeatable enough to allow him to get it back fairly quickly. He can also get a little off him game pitching out of the stretch, but that will smooth out with experience. Hopefully the O's will take the gloves off next year, and we could see a dominant force.

Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks) - Coming back from Tommy John surgery in 2014, the Diamondbacks have been very cautious with Corbin. He has been on a pretty strict pitch count since returning -- generally limited to about 90 pitches -- but he has done fairly well with the innings he's been given. Even with the limited pitch counts, he has generally been able to get about six innings in, and the velocity (his fastball is averaging about 93 mph) is already back. Not surprisingly, his command of the strike zone has been a little inconsistent leading to some home run woes, but that is to be expected as he works himself back to full health and game sharpness. Corbin pitched 208 innings in 2013, so he has workhorse credentials, but having missed the first half of this season while rehabbing, he has only tossed about 60 innings this year. That could lead to at least a partial innings limit in 2016, but he should be on a long enough leash to be a productive member of a fantasy rotation. Arizona features a good defensive alignment behind him, his strikeout rate is actually higher this year than it was in his first two seasons, albeit with a fairly small sample, so there are a lot of positives.

Carlos Rodon (White Sox) - Rodon really could have used a year in the minors after pitching just 34 minor-league innings last year, his first as a pro. He was a horse in college at North Carolina State, and the White Sox considered letting him develop his arsenal as a reliever this year, but he has been in the rotation most of the season. Rodon has a very good fastball (averaging just less than 94 mph) and an even better slider, but his change-up is still very much a work in progress, and like many young lefties he sometimes has trouble finding the strike zone. Without a consistent change, he is vulnerable to right-handed bats, and with his command issues his walk rate (4.88/9) and pitch counts are both problematic, but all of these things are fixable, and with his talent level I believe the fixes may come sooner than later. Rodon keeps the ball in the yard -- not always easy in his home park -- but he has experienced a little bad luck on BABIP, which has contributed to an inflated 4.42 ERA. Look for that to come down, and his 1.55 WHIP to improve while he maintains a very good strikeout rate, which already approaches 10 per nine innings. There is realistic ace potential residing here.

Stephen Strasburg (Nationals) - He isn't the kind of pitcher you would expect to see on a "taking the next step" list, but Strasburg is a special case. He came to the majors with immense fanfare, and he looked the role, but then in 2011 he went down with an elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery. He returned in 2012, and for the next three seasons he put up rather pedestrian numbers -- for him. A WHIP around 1.10 and an ERA around 3.10 with more than a strikeout an inning isn't pedestrian for many pitchers, but Strasburg isn't your everyday arm. This season started off horribly with a 1.72 WHIP and a 6.55 ERA through May. He then missed a month with a neck/back injury, returning in late June. Strasburg made three starts, displaying the same eye-popping stuff he showed when he arrived in pro ball, turning some heads in the process. He then missed more time with an oblique strain, and both these injuries have masked a very promising turnaround. This isn't the good Strasburg of 2012-2014, this is the great Strasburg of his earliest days, and if he can stay healthy, a top-five starter could be in the 2016 cards.

There you have it -- a few arms with a lot of positive indicators. Some aren't likely to be fantasy staff aces, but they could offer exceptional value, and that wins leagues.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Rangers' Yu Darvish started a throwing regimen this week as he rehabs from March Tommy Johnson surgery. They hope he'll be ready around Opening Day, but it's too early to really say if that will happen. Regardless, he is someone worth owning next year, even with the likely reduced workload.

• Similarly, the Cardinals believe Adam Wainwright might even be back in time for the 2015 playoffs, albeit he probably would not be stretched out enough to start. He is recuperating from an Achilles' tendon injury, not an arm injury, but he is certainly someone to keep in mind for next spring.

• I want to see a little more of him, but the Yankees' Luis Severino received consideration for next year's targets list. He's just 21 and doesn't have a lot of experienced against advanced hitters, so he'll have to show he can adjust on the fly as hitters catch on. Watch him the rest of this season.

•Taylor Jungmann also nearly made the featured section of these Musings. The Brewers' right-hander has found some consistency with his release point and there has been a corresponding reduction in walks. He's not going to be an ace, but he does have the tools to be a reasonably solid pitcher.

• Houston is really trying hard to keep the innings down on Lance McCullers, but they also want him pitching. The plan was to keep him in the minors until rosters expand in September, but that plan is out the window. He is now scheduled to start for the Astros on Sunday. Be aware they will likely keep his pitch count low.

• The Giants were hoping to have Mike Leake back from a minor hamstring injury earlier this week, but he didn't respond as quickly as anticipated and they have bumped his next start back to this weekend. That obviously assumes no setbacks, but I like him in his current spot. He fits well in San Francisco.

Endgame Odyssey

At least in my book, Brad Ziegler has to be the end-game surprise of the season to date. He has been very consistent, albeit coming with a somewhat unrealistic .183 BAA. The Diamondbacks are a very good defensive team so that helps. ... Glen Perkins has struggled since the All-Star break, and is dealing with a sore neck. He received a cortisone shot Wednesday and could miss some time. Kevin Jepsen would be the most likely fill-in for a couple of days or longer if needed. ... With Koji Uehara out for the rest of the season, Junichi Tazawa likely will be the guy, but he sure looks better in a set-up role. If you are desperate for saves, go ahead, but don't expect a smooth ride. ... I haven't mentioned Trevor Rosenthal very often in the Odyssey, but he is clearly a stud at the end of the Cardinals' bullpen. He reminds me of Kenley Jansen without the same command, but that could be coming. ... Tommy Kahnle is out as the closer in Colorado and John Axford is back in. Axford will likely finish the season with the job unless they decide to have a look at Miguel Castro in September. ... Brad Boxberger continues to provide some shaky innings, but his most serious contender for saves, Jake McGee, sustained a knee injury and his status is up in the air. This situation needs to be monitored.