MLB Barometer: A Little Patience

Impatience is the root of all fantasy strife. I've done well in the NFBC before, but have never had teams in the hunt for overall championships in the Main Event (15-team live) and Primetime (12-team live) like this. Winning an NFBC overall title has always been my primary goal in fantasy sports, and I've never had so many sleepless nights as I have this summer. Not because of the SoCal heat or because I thought I could catch the leaders. It's because of costly and untimely drops. Unnecessary drops attributed to impatience and my stubbornness about the hometown hitter, Alex Guerrero.

Prior to the season, I had Guerrero pegged as one of my late-round value picks. I allowed his pinch-hit April heroics to fool me into believing that Guerrero was going to help lead me to fantasy glory this season. I opted on the side of optimism with each negative Mattingly quote and every missed opportunity of seeing his name on the Dodgers' lineup card - much to the chagrin of my Main Event partner, Andrew. Our team was off to a great start in the power categories thanks to our first two picks (Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper) and a few others like Mark Teixeira. It was obvious early on that despite Goldschmidt and Harper's contribution to batting average, that this was our primary category deficiency. Position-wise, it was also obvious that we needed help at middle infield (thanks, Starlin).

We added Jung-Ho Kang for 19 bucks the first week of May. We liked him despite the fact he hit .226 for us, and really needed to keep a middle infielder, but ended up reluctantly dropping him on June 5. Coincidentally, it was the day before the Josh Harrison injury paved the way for a full-time gig for Kang. Kang has hit .325 since then, on someone else's roster. We since tweaked and tinkered with Scooter Gennett (punchless) and Tyler Saladino (.226 BA in 100 at-bats). The timing of our Kang drop was bad, but even worse was my bended-knee plea to Andrew to keep Guerrero another week when there was no reason besides my irrational hope to do so.

Our Main Event team has been hanging around in the top 20 overall (450 teams) all season, and the Primetime squad with Lindy Hinkleman is currently seventh of 204. Hope is not yet lost in our quests for titles, but in the meanwhile, a smack to the back of my head is well-deserved. Surely, things could have turned out different for Guerrero this year if he was given an opportunity - say, with another manager (or, so I think) - but I would have found other mistakes to magnify. Either way, it's a reminder of the lesson I have to re-teach myself every season. Don't ever mix roster decision-making with passion for your hometown team. Those kind of homers don't win fantasy titles.

RISERS

Derek Dietrich (3B/OF, MIA) - In a season of much instability within the Marlins' lineup, Dietrich has quietly provided solid production since his mid-June call up. He covered the hot corner while Martin Prado was hurt, but has mostly played left field, batting sixth, cleanup and most recently third, in a lineup that has been without Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich. Dietrich has been playing well over the last two weeks (.307/.404/.994, 9 R, 10 RBI) and has nine home runs in 179 plate appearances this year. Despite solid production and multi-position eligibility (2B, 3B, OF) in most formats, Dietrich has been flying under the radar (sub-5 percent ownership in Yahoo leagues, sub-20 percent in NFBC RotoWire OC). His walk-rate in limited at-bats this year is nine percent, but more than 40 percent of those walks have come by being hit by pitches - a skill he has continued to develop (15 HBP in 224 PA at Triple-A this year). Though Ichiro has been hot at the plate lately, it's hard to imagine the Marlins taking Dietrich's efficient bat out of the lineup, especially against righties. Dietrich has decent pop for a cheap waiver wire grab (.258 ISO) and can really contribute in RBI if he continues to hit higher in the lineup.

Stephen Piscotty (OF, STL) - The first round pick (36th overall) from the 2012 draft needed more development last season and was passed up for promotion by Randall Grichuk and the late Oscar Taveras when the Cards needed OF help. He hit .272 with 11 HR, 41 RBI in 87 games at Triple-A this year, and most notably had a huge spike in his walk-rate (12.4 percent, up from 7.7 percent in 2014). Piscotty finally got called up last month (July 21st) but went 24 games without a homer. He finally hit his first career home run last Monday and has since launched four homers, including two against the Padres on Sunday night. Piscotty is hitting .324 hitting all over the Cardinals' lineup, including a few games hitting second behind Matt Carpenter. Piscotty has a well-rounded skill set, and even a bit of speed (16 SB last two seasons) and will be heavily relied upon to mature quickly and help the team over the final six weeks, especially in the absence of Grichuk, Matt Adams and Matt Holliday.

Ken Giles (RP, PHI) - Giles had an average draft position in the 20th round of NFBC 12-teamers as one of the first middle relievers this spring with the hopes that Jonathan Papelbon would get sent packing early on. There were March rumblings of a deal to Milwaukee, but it never materialized. Four months later, patient fantasy owners finally get to enjoy the anointed one. Giles has been stellar all season long, allowing just one homer and striking out 71 in 55 innings (11.55 K/9). He has nine saves since taking over on July 30, and has yet to blow an opportunity as 'the guy'. The lone blip on an otherwise fantastic season is his walk-rate (nine percent) which is partially responsible for his 1.25 WHIP - decent, but not upper echelon closer stuff. Giles relies on a wicked slider and a 96.4 mph fastball that frequently hits over 101. The 24 year old is one of the lone bright spots on the Phillies and will likely be selected among the top 10 closers next season, quite possibly on the cusp of the top five.

Ian Kennedy (SP, SD) - Kennedy had his best outing of the season on Saturday - six scoreless innings and his first double-digit strikeout outing (10), in an 8-0 rout of the Cardinals. He has been more reliable since the All-Star break (two or less earned runs in 11 of 12 starts), but Kennedy's ERA still sits a touch above 4.00 as he continues to improve on a horrid first 14 weeks of the season. Having no noticeable injuries to deal with has helped Kennedy turn his season around. Nevertheless, he has posted the highest HR/FB rate (18 percent) of his career despite a ground ball rate on par with his last few seasons (39 percent). The 30 year old still has some gas left in his tank, though his early season struggles will make him even more affordable in 2016 drafts as long as he calls PETCO (or a comparable park) home. Kennedy has a much better record at home (6-4) than on the road (2-7), but has allowed more earned runs at home in less innings (home: 31 ER in 62 IP, away: 26 ER in 66 IP). He lines up for a start against the Phillies on the road this week, followed by a home start against the Rangers the week after.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Dexter Fowler (OF, CHC) - Had an incredible week hitting .478 last week with two homers. Approaching career highs in home runs and runs scored, but has some work to do to raise a paltry .257 batting average. Leading off atop a surging lineup fighting for playoff contention, Fowler has been well worth his 265 ADP and could be a top 100 pick next season.

Miguel Sano (3B, MIN) - An incredible FAAB pickup no matter what folks paid for him this year. Has hit 10 home runs in 179 plate appearances including a monster week last week (.321/.406/1.228, 4 HR, 9 RBI). Has managed a mid-280's batting average despite a strikeout-rate near 35 percent - a percentage well above his minor league career average and the part of his game that needs the most improvement.

Starling Marte (OF, PIT) - Can't really be disappointed with his numbers (.290 - 68 R - 15 HR - 61 RBI - 24 SB) despite a severe power drought in July and early August. The two homers this week are a great sign considering the last home run he hit was hit back on July 1. Just 26 years old and the 30-homer season is on the way. Worth a second round pick once again next year.

Yordano Ventura (SP, KC) - One of the biggest SP busts of the season finally gets an honorable mention. Two quality starts last week against the Red Sox and Angels with a 13:2 K:BB ratio. The biggest difference is that Ventura is not trying to overpower hitters with his 100 mph fastball. Served up a steady diet of secondary pitches (curve, cutter, change up) early in his outings. Immature, yet extremely talented, dominance is a state of mind for Ventura.

OTHER RISERS
Yoenis Cespedes (OF, NYM), Ian Kinsler (2B, DET), Chris Coghlan (2B/OF, CHC), Carlos Rodon (SP, CHW), Drew Smyly (SP, TB), Stephen Strasburg (SP, WAS), Shawn Tolleson (RP, TEX)

FALLERS

Hanley Ramirez (OF, BOS) - Ramirez is right up there with Yasiel Puig as one of them most frustrating fantasy picks of the first two rounds - a true shame considering how much raw talent they both possess. Hanley last surpassed 550 at-bats in 2012. This season, he has been dealing with numerous ailments (foot, shin, hand), has continued to be a liability defensively, and recently took a hit status-wise, batting sixth behind rookie Travis Shaw. Ramirez did launch a bomb on Monday night, reaching 20 homers for the seventh time in 11 seasons. But his walk rate is hovering at 5 percent - more than half of last year's rate, and a career low. Fantasy owners have no choice but to be cautious taking him within the first four rounds of drafts next year. Hanley Ramirez is the ultimate fantasy wildcard - he still has the talent to be a difference-maker in his age-32 season, especially at a depressed price when all of us have soured on him. It's just a matter of if we want to take on the additional heartburn.

Kolten Wong (2B, STL) - By the end of May, Wong appeared to be well on his way to posting easy top five 2B value and his first 20/20 season. It has been a rough stretch for him since the All-Star break, hitting under the Mendoza line (.198) with just two home runs and four stolen bases. Worst of all, he has no extra base hits in the month of August and has been hitting lower in the batting order. He has been caught stealing twice on just five attempts this month, but should be able to reach 20 bags over the final six weeks (currently at 14). Wong is, and will continue to be, a streaky hitter. His owners will be hoping for a huge week soon, similar to the one he had right after the 4th of July last year where he hit five homers in a seven game stretch. Wong is just 24 and can put up a top five season at his position as soon as next season. In the meanwhile, dynasty leaguers will have to ride the waves as he works to improve at the plate.

Carson Smith (RP, SEA) - Smith was the lone bright spot in a terrible Mariners bullpen prior to the All-Star break - ranking second with a 7.8 strikeouts-to-walks ratio among all relievers. He took over as closer for Fernando Rodney in June, and appeared to be running away with the job, securing five saves. He saved four more games in July, but was surprisingly shaky, giving up six runs and walking six batters in 10 innings. This month, Smith has blown three saves, including two last week, prompting McClendon to give former closer, Tom Wilhelmsen, the next save opportunity. Smith appears to have simply hit a wall. His velocity has been noticeably decreasing since the first half, partially due to a flaw in his mechanics - his vertical release point more than an inch lower than earlier this season. Those in need of saves with deep enough benches may want to hold Smith if he can make adjustments, so long as Wilhelmsen isn't so incredibly effective that they stick with him for the remainder of the season. Nevertheless, Smith should be a closer target for fantasy owners next season as he remains, far and away, the Mariners' best reliever.

Brett Anderson (SP, LAD) - Anderson hit the 140 innings pitched mark for just the second time in his career - a big accomplishment for him in fantasy circles as most of us would have taken the under on 50. Late round fantasy fliers in good pitchers' parks are the ones worth taking, and up until August, Anderson had well exceeded our expectations. He allowed no more than three runs in 19 of his first 21 starts until a 7 ER blowup against the Nationals earlier this month. The two outings that followed were of the mediocre variety - 3 ER in 6 IP in each outing against the Reds and Astros. Anderson has maintained his reputation as a control pitcher (2.4 BB/9 this season matches his career average), and is in the midst of his most extreme ground ball season (66 percent). If you're still holding on to Anderson in 12-teamers, hold on a bit longer for the two-start week next week when he faces the Giants and Padres. Some are hoping that he can finish the year off strong, while most of us are hoping he can just finish.

DISHONORABLE MENTIONS

Erick Aybar (SS, LAA) - Pretty much worthless for fantasy purposes at this point. Hitting .216 with a horrendous .237 OBP this month. On the wrong side of 30, and an easy drop if you're still holding on.

Josh Reddick (OF, OAK) - An incredibly frigid August (.214/.254/.594 with 1 HR and 3 RBI) and hitting .211 against lefties this year. Still worth holding on to though. (Monday night update: 3-for-5 with a stolen base and a ninth-inning home run)

Taylor Jungmann (SP, MLW) - Had his first truly awful non-Coors outing, running into the buzz saw otherwise known as the Nationals last week (5 ER, 3 BB in 4 IP). Has been the Brewers' most consistent starter since joining the rotation in early June (7-5, 2.66 ERA) but we need to be cautious and stream based on matchups.

Wily Peralta (SP, MLW) - Has been anything but reliable since returning from an oblique strain in late July. Currently posting the lowest strikeout-rate (13 percent) of his career. Allowed six earned runs in two of his last four starts.

OTHER FALLERS
Russell Martin (C, TOR), Joc Pederson (OF, LAD), Chris Young (OF, NYY), Jay Bruce (OF, CIN), Mat Latos (SP, LAD), Taijuan Walker (SP, SEA), Tom Koehler (SP, MIA)